Survivor bias & arrogant new traders with begginer's luck.
Updated
Sorry if I am polluting anyone idea stream, but there is so much going on now compared to boring July (mid June to mid August more exactly).
As we are about to make a new high, while shorters increase their position "scaling in" on their way to liquidation, I am remembered as I am watching a youtube video, of lucky new traders that can't take baby steps.
There is an author here on trading view that got lucky as he started, then he got really popular, and he started to think he was this wonder boy "legend" than knows everything. His followers were treating him as a god or something, and I told them to chill out and of course I got insulted and called a hater that has alot to learn from him - yeah right XD - so what happened next? Well unsurprisingly he stopped being lucky and started being very very wrong. His account got decimated, and now he makes 1 generic not risky random post a month that shows 2 possible direction - up or down - with no details.
People are making fun of him as he know looks like a complete idiot.
Call me a hater if you want, but this is a perfect example, and a really funny one since it is so ridiculous. Pure Dunning Kruger, pure survivor bias. Pure begginer luck.
Know about russian roulette?
Check this story (not a true story):
A billionaire tells people he will give them 10 million dollars if they survive russian roulette.
I would tell people that this is very stupid, but they would argue that the chance of losing is low, and the risk worth it and some "experts" are telling them how they got rich with this wonderful system and have been doing it for years.
And some people would succeed.
Because see, mathematically out of 1000 idiots that play russian roulette once a year, after 50 years a couple of lucky ones would still be alive and telling every one how easy it is and bla bla bla.
But obviously, even if your chances of winning after 1 try are high (5/6), if you repeat it many times, the odds of losing once will get very high.
Does this mean playing russian roulette is not a stupid idea?
Survivor bias is so very present in crypto, but no wonder, the average IQ of someone that falls for a ponzi is not very high.
90% or more of people that invested in 2013 got margin called, or their coins hacked, etc.
But there is this 1 19 year old that got lucky and is now teaching people how to invest (lol), so let's all invest into crypto!
Man, crypto is awesome, it revives natural selection at its finest.
So be patient, and make sure you know what you are doing. Don't be arrogant and think you are a god because you took 10 trades and they went well, that is really retarded XD
I had the idea from this video: youtube.com/watch?v=TBU-GfOPnmQ
Bonus: think of people that sell signals. I am not saying they are all scammers but think about this:
A random scammer, let's call him Dimitry.
Dimitry has a paid group, that he divides in 2 groups.
He tells 1 group to go long on gold, and the second group to go short on it.
The second group wins. he makes several groups again, to make it simple let's ignore the losers that shrink in number as people that lose get disapointed, and divides the winners in two groups, picks eurusd and makes a random call.
He divides over and over, and some people are going to have 10 wins in a row, and some 9W/1L and some 8/2.
The losers are few since they just quit, those that stay can be told "oh its just bad luck this happens in trading", look how many won! Good stats!
"Those that remain on average have 80% winrate" Of course he does not tell anyone he made random calls and people are much more likely to quit when they lose than when they keep making money "Just stick to the program those that do make money!" "My star pupil turned $5000 into $25000 in 2 months"
See how easy they can scam people?
EVEN if a signals person does not use this strategy, there are people that will join when he happens to have a luck streak and think he is awesome and they will be the winners. Same logic.
Oh that's it Bitcoin made a new high while I was typing this XD
Or maybe I waited for it to make a new high to post this so it seems I knew from the start? Well no, trading view does not remove ideas and I have been telling everyone it would go up for like a month rofl.
As we are about to make a new high, while shorters increase their position "scaling in" on their way to liquidation, I am remembered as I am watching a youtube video, of lucky new traders that can't take baby steps.
There is an author here on trading view that got lucky as he started, then he got really popular, and he started to think he was this wonder boy "legend" than knows everything. His followers were treating him as a god or something, and I told them to chill out and of course I got insulted and called a hater that has alot to learn from him - yeah right XD - so what happened next? Well unsurprisingly he stopped being lucky and started being very very wrong. His account got decimated, and now he makes 1 generic not risky random post a month that shows 2 possible direction - up or down - with no details.
People are making fun of him as he know looks like a complete idiot.
Call me a hater if you want, but this is a perfect example, and a really funny one since it is so ridiculous. Pure Dunning Kruger, pure survivor bias. Pure begginer luck.
Know about russian roulette?
Check this story (not a true story):
A billionaire tells people he will give them 10 million dollars if they survive russian roulette.
I would tell people that this is very stupid, but they would argue that the chance of losing is low, and the risk worth it and some "experts" are telling them how they got rich with this wonderful system and have been doing it for years.
And some people would succeed.
Because see, mathematically out of 1000 idiots that play russian roulette once a year, after 50 years a couple of lucky ones would still be alive and telling every one how easy it is and bla bla bla.
But obviously, even if your chances of winning after 1 try are high (5/6), if you repeat it many times, the odds of losing once will get very high.
Does this mean playing russian roulette is not a stupid idea?
Survivor bias is so very present in crypto, but no wonder, the average IQ of someone that falls for a ponzi is not very high.
90% or more of people that invested in 2013 got margin called, or their coins hacked, etc.
But there is this 1 19 year old that got lucky and is now teaching people how to invest (lol), so let's all invest into crypto!
Man, crypto is awesome, it revives natural selection at its finest.
So be patient, and make sure you know what you are doing. Don't be arrogant and think you are a god because you took 10 trades and they went well, that is really retarded XD
I had the idea from this video: youtube.com/watch?v=TBU-GfOPnmQ
Bonus: think of people that sell signals. I am not saying they are all scammers but think about this:
A random scammer, let's call him Dimitry.
Dimitry has a paid group, that he divides in 2 groups.
He tells 1 group to go long on gold, and the second group to go short on it.
The second group wins. he makes several groups again, to make it simple let's ignore the losers that shrink in number as people that lose get disapointed, and divides the winners in two groups, picks eurusd and makes a random call.
He divides over and over, and some people are going to have 10 wins in a row, and some 9W/1L and some 8/2.
The losers are few since they just quit, those that stay can be told "oh its just bad luck this happens in trading", look how many won! Good stats!
"Those that remain on average have 80% winrate" Of course he does not tell anyone he made random calls and people are much more likely to quit when they lose than when they keep making money "Just stick to the program those that do make money!" "My star pupil turned $5000 into $25000 in 2 months"
See how easy they can scam people?
EVEN if a signals person does not use this strategy, there are people that will join when he happens to have a luck streak and think he is awesome and they will be the winners. Same logic.
Oh that's it Bitcoin made a new high while I was typing this XD
Or maybe I waited for it to make a new high to post this so it seems I knew from the start? Well no, trading view does not remove ideas and I have been telling everyone it would go up for like a month rofl.
Note
Video titled "Signs the Trader You Are Following on Social Media is New, Cocky & Won't Last"youtube.com/watch?v=irN2KTRuo4Q
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