The whole Economy & not just Bitcoin
People want to know about Bitcoin, but do not know how other factors effect the moves in the market.
Take a zoom out and look at this...
What usually happens when you have a ascending move up? it's moving up with a hesitation, lack of conviction.
This isn't any old chart, it's the monthly view of SPY.
Back in November last year I shared a DXY chart (Dollar Index) That highlighted this key level here...
Why this level is key, is what we teach - but the fact it respects it is more the secret sauce. You see, DXY is often overlooked as an indicator - yet you buy coffee beans, oil, gold, cotton, even Bitcoin using the Dollar.
Where is price sat? Well, you guessed it at a key level.
Now let's use another useful indicator; COT intelligence.
Managed money is on the shift.... hmmmm.... hint, hint if ever there was a hint.
We also seeing some shorter term strength in the Dollar, just behind the Yen.
This is very small term in the grand scheme of things, but you have to note these if your wanting to trade your 15 minute charts.
Why I said this is the whole economy, it's due to the sheer amount of uncertainty and speculation at the moment of a recession inbound. So let's look a little closer to Gold.
Take note of both the peaks and the stochastic situation. Strength in the Dollar will weaken this.
If you didn't spot it...
How's about a quick look at Bitcoin?
If you follow me already you know, it's done nothing unexpected over the last 2 years or more, if you don't follow me - I have been in BTC for a long time, Tech VC and a trader of over 22 years now. This combo has given an interesting perspective of this market as it's shifted from a play thing to a professional instrument.
This above is a post (click on it) of the major moves I posted for each swing and the logic for why it will do it's next dance.
Your resident "influencer" might have been calling for
135,000 over 18months ago, moon shots on every $100 rally? But the truth is, Bitcoin is in a transition period making it more of a professional tool, this will and has already had some impact on the analysis.
Take a look at this monthly candle.
Again, not the stochastic and the time left on this candle.
Look a little closer at the weekly.
With the stochastic situation you would expect a little move up.
This is exactly what you can expect on the daily.
Now this isn't a run on 100k or even 1million from here. It's more like a simple Wick fill.
I've spoken about these moves for several months and the fact that we are indeed accumulating, no doubt on that. COT Asset Managers say as much.
However, it's not as simple as up, up n away.
Leveraged funds are playing the game.
So to summarise - if you see some strength on DXY, what would this do for SPX, Gold, Bitcoin?
And yes those extensions are pretty spot on level wise too. Respect the algo.
Simple logic.
Anyways, have a great weekend! Stay safe!
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Take a zoom out and look at this...
What usually happens when you have a ascending move up? it's moving up with a hesitation, lack of conviction.
This isn't any old chart, it's the monthly view of SPY.
Back in November last year I shared a DXY chart (Dollar Index) That highlighted this key level here...
Why this level is key, is what we teach - but the fact it respects it is more the secret sauce. You see, DXY is often overlooked as an indicator - yet you buy coffee beans, oil, gold, cotton, even Bitcoin using the Dollar.
Where is price sat? Well, you guessed it at a key level.
Now let's use another useful indicator; COT intelligence.
Managed money is on the shift.... hmmmm.... hint, hint if ever there was a hint.
We also seeing some shorter term strength in the Dollar, just behind the Yen.
This is very small term in the grand scheme of things, but you have to note these if your wanting to trade your 15 minute charts.
Why I said this is the whole economy, it's due to the sheer amount of uncertainty and speculation at the moment of a recession inbound. So let's look a little closer to Gold.
Take note of both the peaks and the stochastic situation. Strength in the Dollar will weaken this.
If you didn't spot it...
How's about a quick look at Bitcoin?
If you follow me already you know, it's done nothing unexpected over the last 2 years or more, if you don't follow me - I have been in BTC for a long time, Tech VC and a trader of over 22 years now. This combo has given an interesting perspective of this market as it's shifted from a play thing to a professional instrument.
This above is a post (click on it) of the major moves I posted for each swing and the logic for why it will do it's next dance.
Your resident "influencer" might have been calling for
135,000 over 18months ago, moon shots on every $100 rally? But the truth is, Bitcoin is in a transition period making it more of a professional tool, this will and has already had some impact on the analysis. Take a look at this monthly candle.
Again, not the stochastic and the time left on this candle.
Look a little closer at the weekly.
With the stochastic situation you would expect a little move up.
This is exactly what you can expect on the daily.
Now this isn't a run on 100k or even 1million from here. It's more like a simple Wick fill.
I've spoken about these moves for several months and the fact that we are indeed accumulating, no doubt on that. COT Asset Managers say as much.
However, it's not as simple as up, up n away.
Leveraged funds are playing the game.
So to summarise - if you see some strength on DXY, what would this do for SPX, Gold, Bitcoin?
And yes those extensions are pretty spot on level wise too. Respect the algo.
Simple logic.
Anyways, have a great weekend! Stay safe!
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.