Chad's BTC thoughts - what I see, how I'm trading it
*this is an update to the bear chart that served me so well this past 7 months
In macro, bulls need a relief rally. This is it. We may have legs to get to 9k here, but I do not see us breaking out of the resistance box above us that rejected the last rally in May.
Why?
Stoch RSI is getting into overbought territory. Still has room to run, but we're already 50% of the way through this rally, in terms of price, by that indicator. Conversely, if you havent figured out by now to buy when Stoch is oversold and sell when it's overbought, I can't help you (note how accurate the Stoch is since late December)
Same with RSI. Still some wiggle room, but the sharp move up has pushed it above 50. Looks unsustainable.
I see a lower high building, followed by a retest of the 6k zone.
However, if I'm wrong, I do not plan to get left behind on the next bull run.
I will sell 25% of the bitbeans I've been buying in the 6k-6.5k zone, at 9k. I'm not willing to sacrifice this position, even if it means holding when we go back down. I can afford a bull trap. Im not willing to get caught in a bear trap.
If this plays out like the last two big rallies, expect alts to pop off.
In macro, bulls need a relief rally. This is it. We may have legs to get to 9k here, but I do not see us breaking out of the resistance box above us that rejected the last rally in May.
Why?
Stoch RSI is getting into overbought territory. Still has room to run, but we're already 50% of the way through this rally, in terms of price, by that indicator. Conversely, if you havent figured out by now to buy when Stoch is oversold and sell when it's overbought, I can't help you (note how accurate the Stoch is since late December)
Same with RSI. Still some wiggle room, but the sharp move up has pushed it above 50. Looks unsustainable.
I see a lower high building, followed by a retest of the 6k zone.
However, if I'm wrong, I do not plan to get left behind on the next bull run.
I will sell 25% of the bitbeans I've been buying in the 6k-6.5k zone, at 9k. I'm not willing to sacrifice this position, even if it means holding when we go back down. I can afford a bull trap. Im not willing to get caught in a bear trap.
If this plays out like the last two big rallies, expect alts to pop off.
Note
we've reached a critical resistance around the 7800 zonehow bitcoin handles this will tell us a lot about how this rally is going to play out
not the worst area to expect a retrace, but i dont know about shorting here... i'm not
Note
turned back at the first major resistancelets see what happens with the stoch rsi reset?
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.