Bitcoin Correction is Over --> Buy Support, Not Resistance!
Updated
Look at the chart to see how I've traded since the second of January.
Update: Forgot to draw a downwards arrow at the 8400-8500 range, which was the 0.5 FIB on the move from 10500 to 6400. It's one of the trades where I switches a big long into a small short for awesome profits.
Of course, I have been proven wrong to think that the correction bottom was not yet in. It was mostly the double bottom that made me think this way, on top of that, we broke the golden zone with more than 5% closing below the 0.65, but did not reach that 0.786 around 5400. For this reason, I filled up a big short between the 14th and 19th of January (range of 8900-9200). Luckily for me, I was able to sell it off at a nice average profit of >5% (1/4th got stopped out at break even).
I always advise people to use low leverage, on top of that I will tell them to put a stop los at ALL times. For those that got in short days after I was spreading my idea, and then did not listen to me when I told them a daily close above 9200 meant the correction was completely over, your losses are on you, not on me...
It is incredibly funny to see how small fish tried to short all the way from 9200 to 9800 without doing any research or technical analysis. You should have seen that short ratio increase after every pump on a near daily base. Instead of that, smart traders were longing dips that had high volume support. After that close above 9200, I bought all 3 wicks that went towards the 9150-9000 area with limit long orders.
So, what happened next? I sold my bag when the little fish finally started changing their shorts for longs at one of the only resistance levels I was able to find on my mid term + long term charts, this was between 10100 and 10200. I don't understand how this can happen every time again and again, there is one resistance level and it is so far away... Everyone could have easily grabbed +10% in a week. Still, those little fishes keep going short and finally jump in at that one resistance level that has been there during the past 7 months...
Does this mean that a good correction of 10-30% is incoming right now? Of course not, why would this be the resistance that causes that correction? Sure, the little fish all jumped in at the first resistance level we came accross, BUT they are very easily scared out of their positions or even liquidated. By the time we fill that volume gap towards the 9500-9350 area, it might be that the short ratio has increased dramatically again and we can go towards the next resistance zone which I.M.H.O has a much bigger chance of dropping the price with a good 15% if not more. So where lies that resistance zone? As always, most important would be the golden pocket of the entire correction from the past 8 months.
Update: Forgot to draw a downwards arrow at the 8400-8500 range, which was the 0.5 FIB on the move from 10500 to 6400. It's one of the trades where I switches a big long into a small short for awesome profits.
Of course, I have been proven wrong to think that the correction bottom was not yet in. It was mostly the double bottom that made me think this way, on top of that, we broke the golden zone with more than 5% closing below the 0.65, but did not reach that 0.786 around 5400. For this reason, I filled up a big short between the 14th and 19th of January (range of 8900-9200). Luckily for me, I was able to sell it off at a nice average profit of >5% (1/4th got stopped out at break even).
I always advise people to use low leverage, on top of that I will tell them to put a stop los at ALL times. For those that got in short days after I was spreading my idea, and then did not listen to me when I told them a daily close above 9200 meant the correction was completely over, your losses are on you, not on me...
It is incredibly funny to see how small fish tried to short all the way from 9200 to 9800 without doing any research or technical analysis. You should have seen that short ratio increase after every pump on a near daily base. Instead of that, smart traders were longing dips that had high volume support. After that close above 9200, I bought all 3 wicks that went towards the 9150-9000 area with limit long orders.
So, what happened next? I sold my bag when the little fish finally started changing their shorts for longs at one of the only resistance levels I was able to find on my mid term + long term charts, this was between 10100 and 10200. I don't understand how this can happen every time again and again, there is one resistance level and it is so far away... Everyone could have easily grabbed +10% in a week. Still, those little fishes keep going short and finally jump in at that one resistance level that has been there during the past 7 months...
Does this mean that a good correction of 10-30% is incoming right now? Of course not, why would this be the resistance that causes that correction? Sure, the little fish all jumped in at the first resistance level we came accross, BUT they are very easily scared out of their positions or even liquidated. By the time we fill that volume gap towards the 9500-9350 area, it might be that the short ratio has increased dramatically again and we can go towards the next resistance zone which I.M.H.O has a much bigger chance of dropping the price with a good 15% if not more. So where lies that resistance zone? As always, most important would be the golden pocket of the entire correction from the past 8 months.
Trade active
Everyone thinks the correction is already happening. To me that's fairly obviously NOT the case yet. This looks like a small intraday correction, trapping many noobs in shorts, ceating support and fuel for yet ANOTHER rise towards the golden pocket resistance zone at 11k-11.3k. Thar has been my target ever since we crossed 9200.I myself, am loading up new longs from 10200 to 10100, and thus so far got 1/4th of them filled.
DYR, trade safe, be smart and careful!
Note
Triggered my big long at 8490 on the 17th which lowered my average entry price to 9700 and then it went straight to one of my profit taking limit sells that I put in place. I sold of half my batch at 10190 in profit.Lucky for me I don't use a lot of leverage and got a nice profit because I can keep up loading more without risking liquidation. Even if it goes down to 8600 I would still be fine with that.
However, now I'll need to make a choice, sell the other half around 9800-9900 in neglectable profit, or keep it going just in case this 0.5 FIB on the log scale (from 8200 to 10600) turns out to be mid term support. I have to say that I am not a fan of log scale and therefor never use it myself. At the other hand, I was really convinced that this was going to be a small shakeout to 10.1k or 9.4k at most and turns out I might be wrong there as well. In times like these when anything can happen, and it's hard for me to find the most probable outcome, I prefer to get out and place new limit orders where I expect big reaction in the mid term.
For that reason I will step out in the high 9k area and get back in with spread orders between 9000 and 8600.
Trade active
*AWESOME!*Perfect buying opportunity, correction probably has its low in already, we took almost 3% gain from todays bottom and shorts keep increasing. I advise going lon in this 9200 area, don't wait too long before getting in guys. If you handle your portfolio correctly, you should have at least part of it in a long position by now.
+ the low at 9020 perfectly aligns with the previous high in that golden pocket area from 8900-9200 from back in the day! This is volume support, nothing less and nothing more.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.