Foremost, I do not recommend anyone shorting anything. In fact, selling something you do not own should be illegal.
Secondly, DD and DYOR, as this study is merely my elliot wave analysis of historical market movements for a better estimates of future trends.
Thirdly, while I may oft call for a correction to hit
BTCUSD, know that I am extremely bullish on its macro long term.
However It is in the interest of my overall trading strategy to employ what's best for me in figuring out when a possible top might hit big brother Bitcoin as well as Altcoins.
Unfortunately one is unable to predict the magnitude of the price action.
Fortunately we can forecast the likelihood of price moving in the direction where there is least resistance of buyers or sellers -- in this case, of buyers.
So which price action do we suspect that buyers are camping at?
Good question, because I think most are camping within the $40k region, coinciding with key Wave 2 fib retracement levels.
A fib retracement of 23.6% (PT $44.2k) will be an early indicator that we may have topped for Wave 1 (ATH of
48K), while a 32.8% (PT $42.3k) retracement is a solid confirmation for a Corrective Wave 2.
Can we expect a stronger pullback towards 61.8% fib levels?
Sure, but I will take it that there exists a very strong buy zone around that region, and barring another Black Swan event, price should rebound back on track if it ever dips below $40k.
How strong and how long this 2nd Wave can be is anyone's guess, although we can expect for price consolidation around the $40k region in the short (9 Days) to mid term (50 Days).
Again, I reiterate that I am macro bullish on Bitcoin, despite this bearish treatment here. I am almost always trying to analyse where big brother is trending..
.. because where Bitcoin go, Altcoins follow.
Secondly, DD and DYOR, as this study is merely my elliot wave analysis of historical market movements for a better estimates of future trends.
Thirdly, while I may oft call for a correction to hit
BTCUSD, know that I am extremely bullish on its macro long term. However It is in the interest of my overall trading strategy to employ what's best for me in figuring out when a possible top might hit big brother Bitcoin as well as Altcoins.
Unfortunately one is unable to predict the magnitude of the price action.
Fortunately we can forecast the likelihood of price moving in the direction where there is least resistance of buyers or sellers -- in this case, of buyers.
So which price action do we suspect that buyers are camping at?
Good question, because I think most are camping within the $40k region, coinciding with key Wave 2 fib retracement levels.
A fib retracement of 23.6% (PT $44.2k) will be an early indicator that we may have topped for Wave 1 (ATH of
48K), while a 32.8% (PT $42.3k) retracement is a solid confirmation for a Corrective Wave 2.Can we expect a stronger pullback towards 61.8% fib levels?
Sure, but I will take it that there exists a very strong buy zone around that region, and barring another Black Swan event, price should rebound back on track if it ever dips below $40k.
How strong and how long this 2nd Wave can be is anyone's guess, although we can expect for price consolidation around the $40k region in the short (9 Days) to mid term (50 Days).
Again, I reiterate that I am macro bullish on Bitcoin, despite this bearish treatment here. I am almost always trying to analyse where big brother is trending..
.. because where Bitcoin go, Altcoins follow.
Note
Price action over the past 24 hours debunked any notion of a Corrective Wave 2 underway -- although a possible top is is highly probable, as we're seeing decreasing volume and a divergence on the MACD.Note
BTC briefly traded above $50k, despite declining volume. I think this is great news and for anyone who has sat interested on the sidelines for a while, they'll now think that $60k is the next leg up and will be inclined to FOMO in.& not enough are selling pressure to push price further down either.
Half a week after I started this new study (when
BTC traded barely touched $50k), I'm inclined to believe that there is now a stronger sentiment for $60k than $40k. Expect a short consolidation (or none at all) as the sky's the limit -- the break above $50k signified a totally new wave assessment.
I do not expect $40k, not anytime soon.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.