Bitcoin on a (relatively) long-term move upwards?
Updated
Does bitcoin look to be moving upwards on a longer term trajectory?
Looking from a daily view (1 day bars), the short term SMA moved above the longer term EMA near the beginning of April (08 Apr 20), and seems to have established itself there for the past approx. 4 weeks.
Additionally, drawing trends on the highs and lows from the lead up to the move of the SMA above the EMA from 01 April (admittedly an arbitrary point but as good as any other) to when the daily movement slowed down and temporarily peaked (05 April) shows that from the first day onwards following on from the day there was a last major daily movement (29 April), the trend is remarkably following the trend upwards from 01 to 05 April.
Finally following on from that possibly important day of the last major move (29 April), the first bottom/trough had a dragonfly bar indicating subsequent moves upwards - which have happened.
A large negative however is that the RSI has remained above 70% consistently over the past few days and thus would indicate a move downwards at some point. However, with the way the RSI is calculated, a downwards moving RSI does not strictly translate to a long term price trend downwards.
Thus, we have:
1. Short term SMA consistently staying higher than the longer term EMA
2. Price movements closely following trend lines (that are not wedging or indicating a movement down)
3. A dragonfly at the most recent bottom/trough indicating a movement upwards and subsequently validated over the past few days.
The assumptions underlying the above, and which could always be wrong are:
1. The trend lines are correct particularly from their origin (why pick 01 April? Are there better trend lines indicating the opposite?)
2. The dragonfly has been identified correctly and is actually meaningful
If the movement and pattern has been identified correctly, then the first barrier of resistance, and also perhaps the optimum sell point would be around 10k USD, the approx. high from approx. the past 6 months. Alternatively, an exit would be when the SMA crosses the EMA downwards, or when there is a daily close and open below the EMA line.
Generally, there's always unsureness (that's a cromulent word and the reader knows what it means so I prefer it over "doubt" :-) ) if this or any BTC movement is a true movement upwards. I'm still not convinced that BTC actually has patterns or that any trading strategy can be applied to BTC as the movements are to random, and the variables too great, without any market fundamentals (like stocks) to make any rational calculation. Thus, feedback on everything mentioned above is more than welcome (except on the word "unsureness" :-) )
Additionally, anyone have any suggestions for BTC exchanges that offer stop losses as part of their standard account (not a paid for subscription or as a CFD/leveraged trading account)? Exchanges such as Coinbase and CEX.io do not, and I'd be grateful for any suggestions.
Looking from a daily view (1 day bars), the short term SMA moved above the longer term EMA near the beginning of April (08 Apr 20), and seems to have established itself there for the past approx. 4 weeks.
Additionally, drawing trends on the highs and lows from the lead up to the move of the SMA above the EMA from 01 April (admittedly an arbitrary point but as good as any other) to when the daily movement slowed down and temporarily peaked (05 April) shows that from the first day onwards following on from the day there was a last major daily movement (29 April), the trend is remarkably following the trend upwards from 01 to 05 April.
Finally following on from that possibly important day of the last major move (29 April), the first bottom/trough had a dragonfly bar indicating subsequent moves upwards - which have happened.
A large negative however is that the RSI has remained above 70% consistently over the past few days and thus would indicate a move downwards at some point. However, with the way the RSI is calculated, a downwards moving RSI does not strictly translate to a long term price trend downwards.
Thus, we have:
1. Short term SMA consistently staying higher than the longer term EMA
2. Price movements closely following trend lines (that are not wedging or indicating a movement down)
3. A dragonfly at the most recent bottom/trough indicating a movement upwards and subsequently validated over the past few days.
The assumptions underlying the above, and which could always be wrong are:
1. The trend lines are correct particularly from their origin (why pick 01 April? Are there better trend lines indicating the opposite?)
2. The dragonfly has been identified correctly and is actually meaningful
If the movement and pattern has been identified correctly, then the first barrier of resistance, and also perhaps the optimum sell point would be around 10k USD, the approx. high from approx. the past 6 months. Alternatively, an exit would be when the SMA crosses the EMA downwards, or when there is a daily close and open below the EMA line.
Generally, there's always unsureness (that's a cromulent word and the reader knows what it means so I prefer it over "doubt" :-) ) if this or any BTC movement is a true movement upwards. I'm still not convinced that BTC actually has patterns or that any trading strategy can be applied to BTC as the movements are to random, and the variables too great, without any market fundamentals (like stocks) to make any rational calculation. Thus, feedback on everything mentioned above is more than welcome (except on the word "unsureness" :-) )
Additionally, anyone have any suggestions for BTC exchanges that offer stop losses as part of their standard account (not a paid for subscription or as a CFD/leveraged trading account)? Exchanges such as Coinbase and CEX.io do not, and I'd be grateful for any suggestions.
Trade closed: target reached
In this post I mentioned that an optimum time to exit this position would be around 10k USD per BTC as that was the previous high from around 6 months ago and would thus be the next likely resistance / establishment level.Since this post going live, BTC, as forecast, increased to just over 10k USD and then fell back (at the time of writing to around 9.8k USD) over the past few days. indeed, it seems to have established itself at this level overall.
Thus the optimum exit level was reached, and established due to the fall back in price and so the position idea can be closed with the target reached :-)
I'll try and publish another idea on what to do next based primarily on waiting to see where the price establishes itself. I don't believe entering a position, especially a long one, now, is the right thing to do as having reached a high, BTC needs some time to provide further indicators on it's next move.
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