BTC may be entering distribution zone, potential bear market inc
Updated
We've had an insane run on BTC but I think this bull run is nearing to an end.
I have some good reasons,
Firstly, on shorter timeframes:
Lack of buy volition above the 4.2k level, even after breakouts and new ATH's, an RSI divergence was always there.
Large amounts of controlled sells
Limited panic selling - panic selling doesn't happen when the smart money is leaving.
Many bulls may believe that it's great we are holding above 4000 for so long, and it's a bullish sign, I think it's the exact opposite. Bulls waiting for that blow off top may be disappointed - when smart money leaves - it leaves slowly.
Now, on large timeframes:
We have an RSI divergence on weekly
We have almost hit the 4.236 fib from 2013 top (FYI we may break to the top here as GS predicted.)
Monthly RSI almost at 2013 levels
Momentum curve is becoming steeper, increasing sell pressure. It is taking more and more power to keep us above the curve. At this rate, we should be at 12.5k by January 2018. That's a very long shot. Once this momentum curve is broken, in my opinion, it's the sign of a bear market.
I believe that we will remain in this zone for a while, we may have a correction here to 3k-3.5k with the fud, but in my opinion we may bounce back to the 4k level for more selloff before finally entering a bear market. Distribution periods can last a while, as larger interests will want to keep the price in this zone.
Segwit & Fud:
Yes yes I know segwit is supposed to be the best thing evar but look what happened to LTC on segwit activation. People that care about segwit already bought. We may get a pump but if it shows any weakness this only confirms distribution.
As for the fud, this makes things worse and inspire a selloff but it won't start a bear market on its own unless it literally kills BTC .
This analysis is purely technical - we are simply exhausted, everyone has already bought, everyone is waiting for the price to go higher but the last bit of blood has been drew from this stone, as can be seen by activity above 4.2k.
Long term target:
My long term target is above 2013 ATH around 1300-1500. Maybe 2000 if we are lucky (this is on a trendline from near the beginning of the bull wave, and it may be ~2000 by he time we reach it).
I have some good reasons,
Firstly, on shorter timeframes:
Lack of buy volition above the 4.2k level, even after breakouts and new ATH's, an RSI divergence was always there.
Large amounts of controlled sells
Limited panic selling - panic selling doesn't happen when the smart money is leaving.
Many bulls may believe that it's great we are holding above 4000 for so long, and it's a bullish sign, I think it's the exact opposite. Bulls waiting for that blow off top may be disappointed - when smart money leaves - it leaves slowly.
Now, on large timeframes:
We have an RSI divergence on weekly
We have almost hit the 4.236 fib from 2013 top (FYI we may break to the top here as GS predicted.)
Monthly RSI almost at 2013 levels
Momentum curve is becoming steeper, increasing sell pressure. It is taking more and more power to keep us above the curve. At this rate, we should be at 12.5k by January 2018. That's a very long shot. Once this momentum curve is broken, in my opinion, it's the sign of a bear market.
I believe that we will remain in this zone for a while, we may have a correction here to 3k-3.5k with the fud, but in my opinion we may bounce back to the 4k level for more selloff before finally entering a bear market. Distribution periods can last a while, as larger interests will want to keep the price in this zone.
Segwit & Fud:
Yes yes I know segwit is supposed to be the best thing evar but look what happened to LTC on segwit activation. People that care about segwit already bought. We may get a pump but if it shows any weakness this only confirms distribution.
As for the fud, this makes things worse and inspire a selloff but it won't start a bear market on its own unless it literally kills BTC .
This analysis is purely technical - we are simply exhausted, everyone has already bought, everyone is waiting for the price to go higher but the last bit of blood has been drew from this stone, as can be seen by activity above 4.2k.
Long term target:
My long term target is above 2013 ATH around 1300-1500. Maybe 2000 if we are lucky (this is on a trendline from near the beginning of the bull wave, and it may be ~2000 by he time we reach it).
Note
Looks like this played out surprisingly well.
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