Bitcoin: BTCUSD Technical Picture Deteriorating Further
Updated
Bitcoin Sunday Update
Nothing has happened over the last 24 hours of trading to
improve the technical picture - after breaking the bear flag
formation all remaining longs closed out and those day traders
who then sold did well from the highs of the new day at the
9900-9917 range. Since then it's carried on drifting lower, still
falling away out lack of interest rather than outright rejection
at this point. The pattern is still overall bearish. The parallels
guiding the descent have shifted to a less acute angle but the
downtrend is still clearly in play with Bitcoin making a little
continuation pattern before it falls away again, sliding lower
towards the parallels below it and making small bounces off
the blue support lines as it descends towards 9061, then 8805
and then 8551.
Over the last 24 hours Bitcoin has built up and reinforced
heavy overhead resistance at 9900-9917 - whilst below here it
remains in a weak technical position - look to sell rallies with
stops above 9710 for now.
Coinbase Update Saturday 11:07gmt/06:07est*
Ripped through the lower parallel of the flag on Coinbase -
now trapped in smaller parallels and finding scant support off
the lower line - now an attempt for 9900-9917 line which was
the last line of neartterm support here on Coinbase and 'limit-
down' those with long memories back to last night may
remember.
This is more dying of dis-interest than outright rejection - but
it's not remotely tempting to buy right now. Likely to slide
away and the bears that are out and sniffing blood won't be
backing away until the upper parallel is broken and then held
on the retest too. Too many failed breaks now to trust them,
no? Just be damn careful all day if trading this mofo this
weekend. In the absence of buyers it 's got to slide lower
down the parallels. But the markets goes on regardless and
day traders are buying off the lower parallel and likely looking
to sell again off the upper one when touched later at 9900.
12:00 gmt/07.00est Saturday
...moving in a continuation pattern, effectively a large a
bearish flag, shouldn't turn bearish again until the lowest
rising parallel is broken on downside. At that point - whenever
it arrives - the rally is done. Close out longs if it
happens sooner rather than later. We do not want to be
trapped inside the bait-ball when the next pod of whales
starts circling. We have to exit before they arrive.
Is this paranoia ? Maybe. But just cos we're a little paranoid
doesn't mean that there isn't someone following us. There is a
time to be paranoid and a time to be
gung-ho. Right now, for safety's sake, it's better to be the
former. We can get over paranoia. Losing 20% is harder to
bear. So this weekend we have to
tread carefully - more carefully than usual. Better safe than
sorry.
* For fastest updates in real-time please see top left of main
Tv page
Nothing has happened over the last 24 hours of trading to
improve the technical picture - after breaking the bear flag
formation all remaining longs closed out and those day traders
who then sold did well from the highs of the new day at the
9900-9917 range. Since then it's carried on drifting lower, still
falling away out lack of interest rather than outright rejection
at this point. The pattern is still overall bearish. The parallels
guiding the descent have shifted to a less acute angle but the
downtrend is still clearly in play with Bitcoin making a little
continuation pattern before it falls away again, sliding lower
towards the parallels below it and making small bounces off
the blue support lines as it descends towards 9061, then 8805
and then 8551.
Over the last 24 hours Bitcoin has built up and reinforced
heavy overhead resistance at 9900-9917 - whilst below here it
remains in a weak technical position - look to sell rallies with
stops above 9710 for now.
Coinbase Update Saturday 11:07gmt/06:07est*
Ripped through the lower parallel of the flag on Coinbase -
now trapped in smaller parallels and finding scant support off
the lower line - now an attempt for 9900-9917 line which was
the last line of neartterm support here on Coinbase and 'limit-
down' those with long memories back to last night may
remember.
This is more dying of dis-interest than outright rejection - but
it's not remotely tempting to buy right now. Likely to slide
away and the bears that are out and sniffing blood won't be
backing away until the upper parallel is broken and then held
on the retest too. Too many failed breaks now to trust them,
no? Just be damn careful all day if trading this mofo this
weekend. In the absence of buyers it 's got to slide lower
down the parallels. But the markets goes on regardless and
day traders are buying off the lower parallel and likely looking
to sell again off the upper one when touched later at 9900.
12:00 gmt/07.00est Saturday
...moving in a continuation pattern, effectively a large a
bearish flag, shouldn't turn bearish again until the lowest
rising parallel is broken on downside. At that point - whenever
it arrives - the rally is done. Close out longs if it
happens sooner rather than later. We do not want to be
trapped inside the bait-ball when the next pod of whales
starts circling. We have to exit before they arrive.
Is this paranoia ? Maybe. But just cos we're a little paranoid
doesn't mean that there isn't someone following us. There is a
time to be paranoid and a time to be
gung-ho. Right now, for safety's sake, it's better to be the
former. We can get over paranoia. Losing 20% is harder to
bear. So this weekend we have to
tread carefully - more carefully than usual. Better safe than
sorry.
* For fastest updates in real-time please see top left of main
Tv page
Note
10:02 Update There is no interest in the market really in buying or selling here - it's neutral but with a bearish overall tone - and yet it's close to the blue support line at 9500 and therefore in no place to sell from in nearterm...the best trades are the shorts from 05:30 gmt/00:30 est for 3-5 hours to 08:30/10:00gmt and then close out. As today. It's now trying to rally as those who sold at 6am buy back - it can push back up to 9900-9917 at best before it falls away again. Whilst day traders will be reversing long again now swing traders are advised to keep powder day until we get a clearer signal .
Do not trust any rallies unless and until Bitcoin can clamber back above 9940 and hold up there on the first retest
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