BTCUSD, A new long to 70k
Updated
Quick update on the previous post that got stopped out ~60k on Oct. 27
We may be on an impulse wave 3 uptrend to 70k, but a breakout is not confirmed given the fact that:
Once at least 2 of these indications have been confirmed the likelihood of 70k increases
This idea is invalid if we get another scam wick below lows of 58k on Oct. 27th. This may very well happen if we get a rejection at the Hull MA as of this posting.
Overall:
Support lines:
-Monthly R2 at ~59.2k
-0.236 fib retracement of minor impulse wave at ~59.1k
-Lower parallel trendline support
-Downward white trend line
-Fixed range Volume profile low at ~58.8k
Resistance lines:
-Fixed range Volume profile high at ~63.3k
-Monthly R3 CPR at 65.8k
-Larger parallel channel upper trendline, if placed with the New Moon phase, it targets ~70k
-Hull MA as of now
-Upper trendline of low timeframe parallel channel
Invalidations:
-59k for minute impulse wave
-0.5 fib retrace of minor impulse wave at ~51.4k
We may be on an impulse wave 3 uptrend to 70k, but a breakout is not confirmed given the fact that:
- Price is still in downward parallel channel
- Hull MA hasn't crossed over to green
- Price hasn't crossed over the bearish trend of the Hull MA
- MACD hasn't crossed over yet
Once at least 2 of these indications have been confirmed the likelihood of 70k increases
This idea is invalid if we get another scam wick below lows of 58k on Oct. 27th. This may very well happen if we get a rejection at the Hull MA as of this posting.
Overall:
Support lines:
-Monthly R2 at ~59.2k
-0.236 fib retracement of minor impulse wave at ~59.1k
-Lower parallel trendline support
-Downward white trend line
-Fixed range Volume profile low at ~58.8k
Resistance lines:
-Fixed range Volume profile high at ~63.3k
-Monthly R3 CPR at 65.8k
-Larger parallel channel upper trendline, if placed with the New Moon phase, it targets ~70k
-Hull MA as of now
-Upper trendline of low timeframe parallel channel
Invalidations:
-59k for minute impulse wave
-0.5 fib retrace of minor impulse wave at ~51.4k
Note
We've so far wicked over the HULL ma, now just need the parallel channel to followNote
Looking back on minute timeframes, the minutte corrective wave did not end with a momentum divergence, which might explain the pullback we had on the retest of the parallel channel. Though, the white trendline did support it.If this new uptrend continues from the lows of the open of Nov. 1st, a momentum divergence will appear, making the corrective abc pattern likely becoming a triple combo wave. Another rejection at the parallel channel and I'd argue that the likelihood of a severe correction under 57k is possible, holding the lower parallel channel trendline as support. If the lower parallel trendline fails to hold as support, the nect likely target to long would be 54k, followed by 51k.
Trade active
Could even argue a drop under 59k at all being significantly bearish from here on out. If your bearish, you could enter at 60.9k on the Hull MA or even the upper trendline of the Parallel Channel at ~61.9k. entered long at 60.8k
sl at 59k
tp same on chart
-why? rising momentum on 30 min. chart against the recent falling price action.
Note
Minute timeframes are showing bearish divergences, we may crab along the parallel channel as support.Note
hidden bearish divergence on the 4 hour candle. with another rejection on the parallel channel at 61.8k, im not as confident on this trade, especially if 60.8k doesn't hold from hear on out.I expect more crabbing with a slight lean to the downside over the next couple of hours/days
Note
Will close this trade if 61.8k doesn't hold, things look very bearish atm, seeing a corrective wave setup to 57kTrade closed manually
Closed trade from the given wick that broken 61.8k, will enter a short trade soon.
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