Bitcoin-USD analysis: feeling bearish
Updated
(Reupload for better visibility) I recently made a post suggesting that BTC has been accumulating since our low at 33k, but now more signs are actually pointing towards distribution. I believe it is possible that BTC is distributing even though we are in the middle of a broader downtrend. TLDR: chart is self-explanatory, + Scenario 1 is more likely given recent price action.
Why distribution?: buyers have tried to push the price up in powerful upthrusts back and forth between the mid-thirty and mid-forty thousand dollars, which is a decently wide range; but several times the price has been rejected down to where it took off, "with authority": to me this looks like supply is still in control. There is further evidence of that on the weekly tf, you can see that the last few weekly candles have (very) big upper shadows, contrary to July '21 where the weekly candles had much bigger lower than upper shadows meaning the selling pressure was getting absorbed, consistently. In fact, the price action of July 21 was a very nice Wyckoff accumulation; however it's obvious that the current pa is of a different nature.
If we try to apply the distribution schematic, our first high at 45k would be the buying climax, followed by a SOW back down around 34.5k, then follows the UT at 45k again.
Where could Bitcoin be headed: Scenario 1 is the most likely, since we recently got brutally rejected after retracing approx. 50% to the last high at 45k. We would break down below the wedge and enter the trading range inside the red rectangle (I extended the dotted lines so that it's clearer why I drew that range as it is), and begin phase D of distribution with a SOW.
Some analysts say "the more times price action touches a resistance/support, the more reliable it is" I think some nuance needs to be added to that claim: if price action touches a resistance/support many times but gets swiftly rejected every time, it means that the sellers/buyers are always present and ready to fiercely defend that level. However, if price action persists many times for a certain period of time around those S/R levels, it means that the sellers/buyers could be strong enough to overwhelm their "opponents". That's actually what I think is happening around the blue support line on the chart: sellers have tried to push price action down on that blue line many times and maintain pressure down there, thus pa looks rather bearish . Where is failure likely to happen: if in a couple of days, the price gets rejected by the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen on the 1D timeframe. There is a thin cloud ahead, and rejection below that is a clear sign of weakness.
Scenario 2: we could be headed to a UTAD (last upthrust after distribution) at
46K and meet the 50W MA. Failure is still possible up there, and probably even more obvious thanks to the distribution scheme.
Tell me what you think.
Why distribution?: buyers have tried to push the price up in powerful upthrusts back and forth between the mid-thirty and mid-forty thousand dollars, which is a decently wide range; but several times the price has been rejected down to where it took off, "with authority": to me this looks like supply is still in control. There is further evidence of that on the weekly tf, you can see that the last few weekly candles have (very) big upper shadows, contrary to July '21 where the weekly candles had much bigger lower than upper shadows meaning the selling pressure was getting absorbed, consistently. In fact, the price action of July 21 was a very nice Wyckoff accumulation; however it's obvious that the current pa is of a different nature.
If we try to apply the distribution schematic, our first high at 45k would be the buying climax, followed by a SOW back down around 34.5k, then follows the UT at 45k again.
Where could Bitcoin be headed: Scenario 1 is the most likely, since we recently got brutally rejected after retracing approx. 50% to the last high at 45k. We would break down below the wedge and enter the trading range inside the red rectangle (I extended the dotted lines so that it's clearer why I drew that range as it is), and begin phase D of distribution with a SOW.
Some analysts say "the more times price action touches a resistance/support, the more reliable it is" I think some nuance needs to be added to that claim: if price action touches a resistance/support many times but gets swiftly rejected every time, it means that the sellers/buyers are always present and ready to fiercely defend that level. However, if price action persists many times for a certain period of time around those S/R levels, it means that the sellers/buyers could be strong enough to overwhelm their "opponents". That's actually what I think is happening around the blue support line on the chart: sellers have tried to push price action down on that blue line many times and maintain pressure down there, thus pa looks rather bearish . Where is failure likely to happen: if in a couple of days, the price gets rejected by the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen on the 1D timeframe. There is a thin cloud ahead, and rejection below that is a clear sign of weakness.
Scenario 2: we could be headed to a UTAD (last upthrust after distribution) at
46K and meet the 50W MA. Failure is still possible up there, and probably even more obvious thanks to the distribution scheme.Tell me what you think.
Note
typo mistake: "sellers have tried to push price action down on that ORANGE line"Note
Rejection at the TS & KS happened earlier today, though we need to wait and see how current 1D candle closes. On lower tfs (4h,2h) price is battling against clustered TS & KS, but the KS on 4h is not going to be moving much for the next day or two: which means it's going to stay there as resistance, THUS price action needs to overcome it sooner than later to hold the 38k line. My oscillators are telling me that the chances to break above or fail is roughly 50/50, but Ichimoku is reminding us of the BEARISH BIAS since pa on 1D, 4h, 2h... tfs is below the RED cloud. That's pretty much it for nowNote
Thursday 17th Bitcoin update, price action managed to break above the Tenkan and Kijun, but careful the danger of a crash is still there! The previous days Btc's had a typical behaviour of falling wedge price action, as it's struggling to leave the orange support line. Until March 25/26th the cloud is going to stay very thin, with a weak support cloud ahead, that totally leaves room for a breakdown.
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