Distribution coming to an end?
Updated
My last post spoke about the distribution channel we were in. I have been keeping an eye on the channel end with the flurry of volume and volatility that took us down to 7.2. Since then we've begun to stabilise and BTC is showing far less intent to make movements back to the O/S line. The channel was broken this morning with a clear candle taking us back to 7.5. There are signs of low TF accumulation occurring with an SC, AR, ST, 2nd ST and LPS looking as though they are present (marked up in blue boxes on the chart). If this is the bullish case I would expect a movement similar to the layout shown with blue trend lines. Consolidation at this range before a spike breaks above the previous ST high forming a SOS. Once this low TF accumulation has completed my expectation is that we trade the channel in the same way we've traded the prior distribution supply channel.
Pros:
Cons:
Neutral with bias favouring a long position.
Pros:
- Distribution channel broken on a large volume green candle.
- Signs of accumulation present in lower TFs.
- Alignment looks strong with wicks keeping line with distribution channel.
- Large volume spike to end distribution channel at final wick.
- Low TF Stoch RSI wedge breakdowns haven't had much impact on price.
Cons:
- Stoch RSI wedges on 1h and 2h that can break down with a strong impact on price as demonstrated during distribution.
- Overall trend still down, this could be a recovery to 7.8 before continuing to head down.
- Guppy hasn't given an indication to long.
- Accumulation signals could be stronger, LPS through phase B very close to the perceived 2nd ST.
Neutral with bias favouring a long position.
Note
Wise decision to remain flat through this area. Stoch RSI wedges broke down taking BTC down for a ride. Reassessment and updates to come following the weekly close.Note
Cons: Stoch RSI wedges on 1h and 2h that can break down with a strong impact on price as demonstrated during distribution.
Overall trend still down, this could be a recovery to 7.8 before continuing to head down.
Guppy hasn't given an indication to long.
Accumulation signals could be stronger, LPS through phase B very close to the perceived 2nd
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