BitcoinShort
Crypto - Bitcoin's 'Return to Normal'
Updated
Idea for BTC:
- My view on how a market with few participants functions. It is easier to do this in an immature market with fewer seasoned participants rather than a complicated index. You can predict the lifecycle of the entire move from the very first candle of it's genesis.
- Very often, a big move in a direction precedes a trend in the opposite direction.
- It seems that this entire move is a an automatic rally of the last distribution cycle completing, and we are at the end of a new, but lesser distribution cycle. When the distribution cycle ends, there is no more need for a market to sell into, and price will decline - likely below where the cycle started.
Newton's Third Law:
For every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction.
In my previous idea, I was able to gauge the movement and the potential bounce at 40k:
Similarly, I was able to use this 'Real TA' to predict AMC's rise to 70+ (and its first rise to 25+):
- When trading beyond intraday, it is useful to anticipate what large market participants and MM's who really move the markets are thinking. No matter how advanced the algos get, at the end of the day there's going to be parties that wants to buy or sell an asset. If you know what they want, then you know where the price is going, no matter how the price swings in between. You don't need quantitative strategies for alpha if you understand market psychology.
- In trading, the destination is what is important. In order to be successful in trading, you need to escape the emotions of day-to-day price movements and the biases that the media sells you. You might get lucky by being bullish in a bullish market, but once the tides shift, it will be revealed who is swimming naked with no process. YOLO gains do not guarantee future performance.
- To become a whale, you need to think like a whale.
GLHF
- DPT
- My view on how a market with few participants functions. It is easier to do this in an immature market with fewer seasoned participants rather than a complicated index. You can predict the lifecycle of the entire move from the very first candle of it's genesis.
- Very often, a big move in a direction precedes a trend in the opposite direction.
- It seems that this entire move is a an automatic rally of the last distribution cycle completing, and we are at the end of a new, but lesser distribution cycle. When the distribution cycle ends, there is no more need for a market to sell into, and price will decline - likely below where the cycle started.
Newton's Third Law:
For every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction.
In my previous idea, I was able to gauge the movement and the potential bounce at 40k:
Similarly, I was able to use this 'Real TA' to predict AMC's rise to 70+ (and its first rise to 25+):
- When trading beyond intraday, it is useful to anticipate what large market participants and MM's who really move the markets are thinking. No matter how advanced the algos get, at the end of the day there's going to be parties that wants to buy or sell an asset. If you know what they want, then you know where the price is going, no matter how the price swings in between. You don't need quantitative strategies for alpha if you understand market psychology.
- In trading, the destination is what is important. In order to be successful in trading, you need to escape the emotions of day-to-day price movements and the biases that the media sells you. You might get lucky by being bullish in a bullish market, but once the tides shift, it will be revealed who is swimming naked with no process. YOLO gains do not guarantee future performance.
- To become a whale, you need to think like a whale.
GLHF
- DPT
Note
Hot take, but the institutions are piling retail into the shittiest of the "currencies" as they themselves pile into the dollar:Note
I think that's it. Had to be a little more patient on this one:- 100D 2 Std Dev R.
- Printed 66666.66 Today (Knew they were gunning for that one).
- BITO options start trading tomorrow and have reached capacity on current month futures contracts, meaning negative roll yield about to start. (Think UVXY or USO). Crypto enthusiasts are about to learn what negative roll yield means!
Note
Uh ohNote
U.S dollar pair mysteriously flash crashes over -88%, below $10,000 in single wick on Binance exchange. If it prints there it will trade there?Note
BITO now 45% exposure in November contracts. Bitcoiners may well soon experience the trauma that UVXY long term holders experience!Yes Bitcoin has limited supply, but like gold or silver, the paper price is what you trade and now there is an unlimited supply of paper. HODL for intrinsic value will be tested soon I wager.
Trade closed: target reached
"To spot a bubble in advance requires a judgement that hundreds of thousands of informed investors have it all wrong "-Greenspan, 1999
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