Bitcoin Bull Flag or Distribition Flag
Updated
Just one trap move after the other lately. Can't say if it's being done on purpose or that it's simply a real fight going on. Like yesterday i placed the following update in my channel:
10050 has been a big resistance so far, quite the rejection. Now a BART move is being made/has been made. But as always during up trends, the big question is will the bears fail or succeed. Think a break of 9850ish, maybe bit lower, will prob be the start of another drop. But it has to be a fast dump, because that’s how it normally goes. If bulls can hold this here for many more hours, like 12 hours more, it could mean its a failed attempt and we rally up. Key level is still around 10050ish, but think as soon as we close in on that level, it will become likely to see it break. 9950/70 is a first resistance. Below that, I judge it as if bears are in favour, above it (or when it becomes clear it doesn’t want to drop), I think bulls might take over
Now after that last move up from 9850 to above 10.000, it looked like an almost sure thing it would break. But while it was hanging around the 10.000, there were also many big sell orders coming in. Which is normal of course at important levels. We always want to see high volume during the break of an important resistance. Only way to get volume is of course to see big sells and buys. Eventually the bulls lost the fight and price dumped back again to 9700.
Thing here is, i preferred a bearish scenario for the coming week or so, where 10050ish the key level for me. With yesterday's move, as described above, it would almost be an easy long when scalping and ignoring higher time frames. What i am trying to say with all of this is, we are seeing one trap after the other here. Also the move to 10400/300 a week ago was a trap eventually, since we made that big 800/1000 dump after reaching that level.
With this dump, it's also almost a sure bet to see another wave down after consolidating, where the minimum is a double bottom. This also did not happen so trapping bears this time, so once again a trap. Consolidation moves are always the worst to analyse, because many of the moves are extremely random. When assuming the rally from 6.900 to 10.500 is the trend, than the big bull flag above should be the consolidation phase before continuing the rally again. I am personally not convinced about it being a bull flag and have my reasons for it. But even i need to be objective about things as well. So as long as we do not see a big drop below this flag, i will know that bulls can always take over again.
The blue line you see, showing a possible drop. To be clear for the ones who don't take the effort to read and try to understand what i say, it is to show that even if we see a big drop soon, it could still just be a correction again if that Bull Flag zone doesn't really break. Since we are hanging here close to the 9700 again, it is also a likely scenario to happen.
Think short term, 9850ish is a resistance and 9600/650 is an important support as well. About all the trap movements, i think the curved blue line is something important as well to watch. During forced movements we sometimes see in the market, we have seen more often that curved shapes start to form, as if they can not hide those. Like the parabolic shapes we see often, are in a sense the same as this here. So for me, the curved shape is what i will keep a close eye one, together with the levels i just mentioned.
So think we can say, would see price below 9850 a bit bearish. Between 9850/10050 slightly bullish to neutral, with the closer it gets again to 10050 the more bullish it becomes. Wanted to write and show more, but there is movement now.
Previous analysis:
10050 has been a big resistance so far, quite the rejection. Now a BART move is being made/has been made. But as always during up trends, the big question is will the bears fail or succeed. Think a break of 9850ish, maybe bit lower, will prob be the start of another drop. But it has to be a fast dump, because that’s how it normally goes. If bulls can hold this here for many more hours, like 12 hours more, it could mean its a failed attempt and we rally up. Key level is still around 10050ish, but think as soon as we close in on that level, it will become likely to see it break. 9950/70 is a first resistance. Below that, I judge it as if bears are in favour, above it (or when it becomes clear it doesn’t want to drop), I think bulls might take over
Now after that last move up from 9850 to above 10.000, it looked like an almost sure thing it would break. But while it was hanging around the 10.000, there were also many big sell orders coming in. Which is normal of course at important levels. We always want to see high volume during the break of an important resistance. Only way to get volume is of course to see big sells and buys. Eventually the bulls lost the fight and price dumped back again to 9700.
Thing here is, i preferred a bearish scenario for the coming week or so, where 10050ish the key level for me. With yesterday's move, as described above, it would almost be an easy long when scalping and ignoring higher time frames. What i am trying to say with all of this is, we are seeing one trap after the other here. Also the move to 10400/300 a week ago was a trap eventually, since we made that big 800/1000 dump after reaching that level.
With this dump, it's also almost a sure bet to see another wave down after consolidating, where the minimum is a double bottom. This also did not happen so trapping bears this time, so once again a trap. Consolidation moves are always the worst to analyse, because many of the moves are extremely random. When assuming the rally from 6.900 to 10.500 is the trend, than the big bull flag above should be the consolidation phase before continuing the rally again. I am personally not convinced about it being a bull flag and have my reasons for it. But even i need to be objective about things as well. So as long as we do not see a big drop below this flag, i will know that bulls can always take over again.
The blue line you see, showing a possible drop. To be clear for the ones who don't take the effort to read and try to understand what i say, it is to show that even if we see a big drop soon, it could still just be a correction again if that Bull Flag zone doesn't really break. Since we are hanging here close to the 9700 again, it is also a likely scenario to happen.
Think short term, 9850ish is a resistance and 9600/650 is an important support as well. About all the trap movements, i think the curved blue line is something important as well to watch. During forced movements we sometimes see in the market, we have seen more often that curved shapes start to form, as if they can not hide those. Like the parabolic shapes we see often, are in a sense the same as this here. So for me, the curved shape is what i will keep a close eye one, together with the levels i just mentioned.
So think we can say, would see price below 9850 a bit bearish. Between 9850/10050 slightly bullish to neutral, with the closer it gets again to 10050 the more bullish it becomes. Wanted to write and show more, but there is movement now.
Previous analysis:
Note
Broke the curved shape, broke 9650/600 support, but the reaction was quite small. So starting to wonder if this is similar to breaking the 9700/800 a week ago (where we dropped to 9550/600 and then pumped to 10400). OI has increased a lot during this drop past hours, showing there are still bulls around. Doesn't mean it will simply go up, seen it happen before and then eventually still dump.
On the right we can see that bear flag, could say target has been reached and they can be turning points as well (remember me saying the big bull flag had a target around 10200/600 and could possibly be a turning point).
Difficult to give a level now, but think bears need to defend the 9650/600 from now on. If it gets above it, could have been just a shake out drop to fill up longs at these levels.
Note
This moment i meant:Note
Posted several updates in my public channel, was not at home. Still do not have that update button in my TV app, still needs to get solved. One of the updates:
"Not at home so didn’t see this until now. We had more of these wick support lines lately. Similar to that one week or 2 ago with low around 9500. As long as this one hold again, we could eventually go up again later today. Last time we had a small wick below it, so for it to really break, needs a volume drop below 9250 even i think. Think 9300 could still be a level where it can form a wick"
Anyway, for now it seems, even though it looks bad, that bulls have another backup plan, that is this channel here. 2 options, it holds and it bounces back up. If it breaks, big chance we see a very big dump happen, think even below 9000. Because it appears to be a accumulation channel/wedge, but sometimes its distribution.
Note
Still something weird going on though, funding has been neutral for days now. But today, while price is dropping (which usually makes funding drop), funding has been increasing. Now i have been out the door most of the day, but past half hour i noticed that Bitmex was 15/20 points above spot price (which causes funding to increase even more). So in other words, spot exchanges were selling while Bitmex was buying/eating up all the selling. One could say, that these people are accumulating on Bitmex. So far they are succeeding since we have not dumped yet, even though it looked like it would. ETH on the left also broke it's first important resistance, taking the pressure off for now.
So now we are back in the noise game. Think on the upside 9450/500 is the key level for the bulls. For the bears it's still around 9300 (but think it needs a big drop straight through 9250/200, otherwise we will see this game continue
Note
Confusing confusing, not dropping but also not moving up. Support is holding so far, almost looks as if bears are too weak. However, these bounces up are just as weak. These are no aggressive bounces at all. So it doesn't fell as if bulls are in hiding and are ready to take over. So at moment it looks as if bears simply are to weak to break the lows, which usually means a counter move. But then the counter move happens, but that one is just as weak. So who are hiding here, the bulls or the bears?
I think it's the bears, because the bounces up should have been more aggressive. So if i had to gamble now, i would bet on a drop. Assuming 9300/280 and 9450/500 is neutral zone. 9400ish might be a small resistance as well now
Volume is also not high here at this low, so also doesn't feel like a big bear trap here. Also not a lot of liqs happened. So it could be judged as a shake out to fill up longs, but a small one so far.
Hope to get an answer soon!
Note
My bet was short lived :), dropped with high volume but got pushed back with low volume and bulls have been holding it since. Now there is at least some speed in this push up, compared to the slow previous attempt of the bulls.
Now again its starting to look as if the market doesnt want to drop. Making new lows each time but no follow through. Suggesting that i might have been wrong with thinking that bears are in hiding, but instead its the bulls that come out of hiding when needed. ETH also made a small double bottom as you can see on the right. Bitcoin still needs to break the 9500/50 though, danger remains below that zone.
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Again bulls loosing momentum here, again no force from them either. I would say, flip a coin or simply wait it out :). My money is on a move down up to 9450 at least
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Seems it's not very clear, with this sentence:"My money is on a move down up to 9450 at least"
I mean, up to 9450 as like a stop loss level on my bet, i assume it will go down
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New Bitcoin analysis:
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