BTC - Fibonacci and Levels of Possible Reversals
Updated
I get a lot of comments your always bear. Well actually I'm not. The reason many think this, is because the runs to the next Fibonacci levels are very quick. Oct 9th after breaking $4700 I posted the article a "next leg up". I had several target levels and the final T3 level was $6000. We got there pretty fast within 3 days. When we reach these target levels, "levels of reflection", we look at our charts to see what levels need to be broken to go further up, or what levels if broken may lead to a correction.
Yesterday I posted an article that we almost made it to $6000. This is because that was our target for weeks now. (yes even when I was short at $4400 I mentioned the $6000 level was in play). Well now we are here or almost as I made lite of yesterday. So I posted both bull and bear scenarios and the levels that verify with a high probability which of those play out.
The move from $3000 to $6000 was not only fast but had a high slope. There are certain numbers that become psychological barriers as I explained in the other article yesterday as to why I thought $6000 was one of them. Can it break $6000, ABSOLUTELY, and if it breaks and holds $6245 - $8266 is the next target level. I do not know how people get $7000 but it may also be a valid count as well but this is mine.
Note resistance and continuation failures happen around these Fibb levels. We get to these levels very fast ( 2 days to go from $4700 to $6000). So for 2 days I was bullish. Now I'm looking for a signal whether we continue up, or we pullback and correct. $4028 would be the ideal correction level for this leg IF it pulls back here. That is confirmed at the black $5157 level. As I stated $6245 the bull continues. Both scenarios and clear levels as to how to position yourself. Right now the market is collecting itself, consolidating and deciding it's next move.
How I get $2500 is from the overall long term cycle starting in 2013 which I have posted numerous times. Does that correction have to happen here and now? NO! But as a trader and investor knowing it can happen gives you direction as to what may happen, and since you know it can happen you don't get scared and sell out as many (AND I MEAN MOST) non seasoned investors do! If you know that this is just a correction, and we will head to $12,000 after we correct (like at $3000 when I posted do not sell here) instead of getting scared and selling, your buying! So this number should be on your board with the chart period. Even if it does not happen your aware it can!
So whether I'm bearish on the market overall does not matter, I have provided both sides, and the levels that confirm (in my opinion) bull run or bear correction.
I have and continue to have a stance, that until the fork is done, I am staying on the sidelines. I have my core holdings in wallets off the exchanges for insurance. The money I have for trading will be used for only very very short term trades. I agree with MarcPmarkets that this is very risky trading here. Unless you are a seasoned trader I do NOT recommend it. That one day dip was around $2000 in like an hour or so. It took a couple weeks to get back to that level. Those happen and they happen more often then people think and often at the least time we expect it. This is why I mention it, so it's always there.
The chart explains the fibb levels clear. You will notice the blue lines where the legs just ran or temporarily hesitated. You will also see where they failed to hold. When we hit these levels or other levels like $6000 which is psychological, we must as traders look at the charts for what levels signal continuation or reversal. When you see a TA post a trade, you are seeing the one side they think will happen based on probabilities. I'm providing both scenarios and what I think.
Yesterday I posted an article that we almost made it to $6000. This is because that was our target for weeks now. (yes even when I was short at $4400 I mentioned the $6000 level was in play). Well now we are here or almost as I made lite of yesterday. So I posted both bull and bear scenarios and the levels that verify with a high probability which of those play out.
The move from $3000 to $6000 was not only fast but had a high slope. There are certain numbers that become psychological barriers as I explained in the other article yesterday as to why I thought $6000 was one of them. Can it break $6000, ABSOLUTELY, and if it breaks and holds $6245 - $8266 is the next target level. I do not know how people get $7000 but it may also be a valid count as well but this is mine.
Note resistance and continuation failures happen around these Fibb levels. We get to these levels very fast ( 2 days to go from $4700 to $6000). So for 2 days I was bullish. Now I'm looking for a signal whether we continue up, or we pullback and correct. $4028 would be the ideal correction level for this leg IF it pulls back here. That is confirmed at the black $5157 level. As I stated $6245 the bull continues. Both scenarios and clear levels as to how to position yourself. Right now the market is collecting itself, consolidating and deciding it's next move.
How I get $2500 is from the overall long term cycle starting in 2013 which I have posted numerous times. Does that correction have to happen here and now? NO! But as a trader and investor knowing it can happen gives you direction as to what may happen, and since you know it can happen you don't get scared and sell out as many (AND I MEAN MOST) non seasoned investors do! If you know that this is just a correction, and we will head to $12,000 after we correct (like at $3000 when I posted do not sell here) instead of getting scared and selling, your buying! So this number should be on your board with the chart period. Even if it does not happen your aware it can!
So whether I'm bearish on the market overall does not matter, I have provided both sides, and the levels that confirm (in my opinion) bull run or bear correction.
I have and continue to have a stance, that until the fork is done, I am staying on the sidelines. I have my core holdings in wallets off the exchanges for insurance. The money I have for trading will be used for only very very short term trades. I agree with MarcPmarkets that this is very risky trading here. Unless you are a seasoned trader I do NOT recommend it. That one day dip was around $2000 in like an hour or so. It took a couple weeks to get back to that level. Those happen and they happen more often then people think and often at the least time we expect it. This is why I mention it, so it's always there.
The chart explains the fibb levels clear. You will notice the blue lines where the legs just ran or temporarily hesitated. You will also see where they failed to hold. When we hit these levels or other levels like $6000 which is psychological, we must as traders look at the charts for what levels signal continuation or reversal. When you see a TA post a trade, you are seeing the one side they think will happen based on probabilities. I'm providing both scenarios and what I think.
Note
Please keep in mind this is an overview. EW works in fractals so you must have a clear understanding of EW and fractals at these levels as well. You can break it down into weekly, daily, hourly and minutes. This is a 2 day chart and the Fibb for the 2 day mid term scenario.Thanks again appreciate your comments.
Note
MarcPmarkets just posted a great article referencing fibb levels. Highly recommend you reading it.
ETHUSDNote
Sorry this is the link!
Note
Here is an example using xlm, keep in mind this is just an example. Obviously the more waves you get and the longer the run, it becomes more complex. but someone asked for the XLM chart as well so here you go. note it hit the 0.618 level and bounced off.Note
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