Long

Bitcoin to 12K, i cracked the SPOOFY system! Read the update :)

Updated

After writing about spoofy for several months now in many of my trading updates, i finally cracked the system and earned almost 250 points in 10 minutes because i just knew a move was about to happen. I have been thinking about it many many times, but because i am not always able to follow the order book at Bitfinex a took a while before i could build up a theory and put it to my own advantage. Even though i got mixed signals at the moment i went long, because i followed my theory and gut feeling. Of course this is only 1 part of the strategies spoofy uses. I have been fooled several times the first few months i saw it, the last few months i not let it influence me anymore. Now it was the first time i took advantage of it's manipulation strategies.

If you read my previous chart analysis of Bitcoin, you can see what i was writing live, while it was happening and what i predicted it would do next during the many updates i wrote.

Bitcoin in a triangle, 1000 point move, with trading updates

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First target now should be around 11600, target of that big triangle.

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It should stay above the 11350 now to reach the 11600 within the hour. For the short term bull move to stay in play, it should stay above the 11.200

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And again, big dumpin of BTC at 11500, where the market clearly wants to break out, one would be a fool to sell there and not 100 points higher. So there just has to be another motive. The way i see it, it's the one i mentioned earlier: being able to lower the risk withtou pushing the market down

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For the extreme bullish sentiment to stay strong, it has to stay above this green support level

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Looks like it's weakening, probably retest the 11200. Than one should hold, otherwise we could see a drop towards the 10800/10500. I am still flat for now

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So the 11.600 target (of the big triangle) was reache, we could be seeing a bigger drop now, it's hanging on a support, could be bouncing off it but i think chances are bigger that we drop towards the 10800

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These controlled moves Bitcoin has been making, from the 8K levels and up, just like it did here. Anyway, dropped through support level now, could be making a bigger rising triangle.

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So it was a bigger rising triangle as i mentioned. Something i have been seeing many times since the break out of the 9K.

I am a bit surprised that the break out of Bitcoin is not really being shared by other coins, the last few days, with the exception of a few. That means for me that the hype engine is still not the same as it was. On top of that, i am not sure yet, but i think i see a bigger rising wedge developing from the 10.200 low, so we will probably see another move towards the 12K target, and from that point i think we are going to see a correction towards the low 10K. But for now it's just a guess, a plan i am already preparing and if it turns out that way, i will be prepared for it.

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Something like this, if we going to see a fast (so short in time) correction to that support line again and than a slower rise towards the 12.000, than i will start to build up a big short position as it goes towards the 12K. First confirmation is a drop to that support line, if that happens i will probably build up my short positions from the 11.700 level

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To be clear, i am still flat and i will probably wont do anything until it reaches the 12K. Unless i see an easy pattern to make a small trade on. For now, the risks are way to high to go long and the market looks way to strong to short it :)

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I am going to short it now, making a small rising wedge. Short it at 11720

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2 options, it just gonna break upwards and accelerate (seen it several times) or a small drop towards that support line. Close stop of around 100 points

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False move of the wedge is confirmed, target around that green area, depends on how greedy this market is at the moment

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It almost looked like a perfect trade, or it manipulated, or the market is extremely strong that it wont even allow a small correction of 200 points. Stop is in place, but looking less good for my position now, even though it's still a small profit

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If i look at XRP, BCH ETH and a few other of the most popular Alts, they all have a short term bearish outlook. None of them could get above the previous high like BTC did. This is seriously a sign we cannot ignore. You can look it up because i posted an analysis about a few of them. But like i said, short term, the medium term is stil very bullish for all!

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Whoop there it is :) effects of a wedge. Good judgement call again, I am almost certain it was just a distribution fase at the top. I did not expect I drop this fast, but it’s welcome of course. Like I mentioned before, the major alts were already showing the way (sentiment), for the short term

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Now we could just be moving up again, like nothing happened, and probably will! Because spoofy and his team have most probably unloaded most of their bitcoin at the 11.700, so now they have more than enough ammunition to slowly and steadily push it higher again towards the 12k.

Summary, they stole people’s money again and they will play the same song again for the next few days. And the funny thing is, nobody knows and probably don’t even care! White collar thief’s and there is nobody stopping them!

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I just went long at 10940

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No real bounce, looking very weak, stop around 10800. Looking more and more like this is already the move towards the low 10k I was talking about

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I think bitcoin is making an attempt to make an even bigger inverse h&s, now making the right shoulder with the bottom around 10.000 probably, could be lower, could be higher. So chances increase that even if we drop more now, we will probably still see the 11.500/12.000 again

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I jumped out at 11100, jumped back in now at 11000. think it will make a big bearish flag, so probably another wave up if it gets around above the 11200 again, I will use a trailing stop, because it would not be the first time a bearish flag just keeps getting bigger and higher :)

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Remember this beautiful picture, if I was right there, we should see another wave up. But why I have doubts now, because the sell off was to fast and to much. But it could still happen, that’s why I will use a trailing stop

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First obstacle

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I have moved my stop to a few points below my entry level of 11.000

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When we look at this picture, seeing Bitcoin has been making many identical patterns. We should drop a few hundred points more. That other drop was 11000 points, this one should bring is towards 10.600 and maybe even slightly lower. I will probably turn short if the 10950 breaks

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These are my levels now for the day trade

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There we go

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Probably go to 10450

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I closed half at 10720

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I have added at 10860

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This should be the final upswing before it drops again. Unless the rescue squad comes in early :) LOL. I have my stop around 11.000

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A double bottom around 10700 is something to keep in mind

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So the double bottom is what it became. I am having another look at the chart, i think i have missed something. Looks like Bitcoin is only making a pullback (retrace whatever) to the big uptrend line from the 6K low. WHat raised my eyebrow at first, is the fact that it could not maintain the H&S from the lows this morning, went through the nekline, but still got back below again. The market is weakening, loosing momentum i think. This could all be just short term, but i always try to take all option into account.

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Posted a new chart

botje11

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