Bitcoin Doing it Again :)
Updated
Bitcoin just never ceases to amaze, how they dump and pump each month or two. I am actually on a small break, but just posted a few messages in my public channel which i will post here as well now. Just an objective assessment of current situation.
Weekly says resistance here, doesnt say much for short term, but would say, as long as 8100ish hold, VERY bullish. 7400 will be decent, below it tricky.
Daily, current candle not great, but at first would suggest consolidation/correction. But as you can see, half of the day has passed, volume prob go above yesterday's candle. So where we close will be important i think. Below 9000ish, think not so great for the coming week (mean time could still do like 9500/10k, but chances for another big correction). Closing above 9100ish, think would show bulls in control, above 9200 would be very strong!
4H, big sell candles, not so great. But think same thing as what i said for the daily. If they get it up again, would mean bears were strong, but bulls are not scared at all, they eat it all up.
When i look at Binance and Bitmex sell candles, it's even worse.
WOuld say, daily close should be minimum above 8900ish, otherwise might be bad. Below 8600ish, think maybe even think it's already over (the rally). Bitcoin has shown this pattern from past day a few times before, it never did the extreme bearish version.
Some of the other messages i did:
Comparing an alts like ETH from that period. Its clear to see, drop today was bigger than we had then. But of course its not exact science. But what is normally important, i think, it dropped almost to the red zone, while then it went half way. Think what we can say is, as long as it doesnt break the yellow zone around 217/220, this time it would be MUCH weaker. But i would say it had like a day or so to do that.
To be clear, i am only giving objective views now, told myself i would take a small break to be reset myself, but showing some objective things is still okay, at least for now.
Think for bitcoin THE level/zone is around 8900/9000.
This is from a few months ago, where the BIG H&S became a big bear trap
Another thing, the 10K rally from few months ago, from what i understood, Tezos and Chainlink being the most popular alt coins, well, they are not so popular now? Especially ChainLink, which was almost moving independently few months ago, now it's barely moving past days. But with alts, it has happened several times before, that they rally at a much later stage. Usually when Bitcoin becomes stable for a few days, they play catch up. So this is not very meaningful, but wanted to show it
Seems to be an attempt to make an inverse H&S, these usually fail, but i just saw two 5 mil markets, so not sure what their plans are here.
What i can say is this, if it takes too long, goes slow, a slow low volume breakout, big chance its a wedge. So if it breaks up, should make like a good pumpy to 9050/9100 at first
For the above, to be like a few months ago, think it should make a higher low around 9700ish (in case the H&S fails).
April 2018 Rally:
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Previous analysis:
Weekly says resistance here, doesnt say much for short term, but would say, as long as 8100ish hold, VERY bullish. 7400 will be decent, below it tricky.
Daily, current candle not great, but at first would suggest consolidation/correction. But as you can see, half of the day has passed, volume prob go above yesterday's candle. So where we close will be important i think. Below 9000ish, think not so great for the coming week (mean time could still do like 9500/10k, but chances for another big correction). Closing above 9100ish, think would show bulls in control, above 9200 would be very strong!
4H, big sell candles, not so great. But think same thing as what i said for the daily. If they get it up again, would mean bears were strong, but bulls are not scared at all, they eat it all up.
When i look at Binance and Bitmex sell candles, it's even worse.
WOuld say, daily close should be minimum above 8900ish, otherwise might be bad. Below 8600ish, think maybe even think it's already over (the rally). Bitcoin has shown this pattern from past day a few times before, it never did the extreme bearish version.
Some of the other messages i did:
Comparing an alts like ETH from that period. Its clear to see, drop today was bigger than we had then. But of course its not exact science. But what is normally important, i think, it dropped almost to the red zone, while then it went half way. Think what we can say is, as long as it doesnt break the yellow zone around 217/220, this time it would be MUCH weaker. But i would say it had like a day or so to do that.
To be clear, i am only giving objective views now, told myself i would take a small break to be reset myself, but showing some objective things is still okay, at least for now.
Think for bitcoin THE level/zone is around 8900/9000.
This is from a few months ago, where the BIG H&S became a big bear trap
Another thing, the 10K rally from few months ago, from what i understood, Tezos and Chainlink being the most popular alt coins, well, they are not so popular now? Especially ChainLink, which was almost moving independently few months ago, now it's barely moving past days. But with alts, it has happened several times before, that they rally at a much later stage. Usually when Bitcoin becomes stable for a few days, they play catch up. So this is not very meaningful, but wanted to show it
Seems to be an attempt to make an inverse H&S, these usually fail, but i just saw two 5 mil markets, so not sure what their plans are here.
What i can say is this, if it takes too long, goes slow, a slow low volume breakout, big chance its a wedge. So if it breaks up, should make like a good pumpy to 9050/9100 at first
For the above, to be like a few months ago, think it should make a higher low around 9700ish (in case the H&S fails).
April 2018 Rally:
Don't forget to like if you appreciate this :)
Previous analysis:
Note
Getting several questions about if that big H&S will play out, with neckline at 8600ish. Well, first of all, chances for that are like 30%. After such a big pump its not likely to see it come back down this fast and that big already. When comparing to 2018, you can see then it bounced bigger from the low than today.
Without making suggestions, i would say, if that first line breaks, will become less likely, if that red one breaks, maybe best to forget about it.
Think only way for it to play out, if we see a big fast dump, anything slow will prob be noise and we go back up again.
Note
The red line is holding so far, seems we have a triangle now, if it breaks down, could be bad news. Think a break of 8700 is dangerous already.Until then, the higher low at 8700ish, to make a trap H&S is still holding
Note
Assuming the fractal is somewhat in play, i would say we just had that blue circle high. So that would mean the 8800/700 has to hold and we make another move up. Still think the 8600ish is a key level here, if that breaks again, the bull might be over already.
Note
New ETH analysis:
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