BTCUSD Daily guidance is cautiously bearish. Recommended ratio: 25% BTC, 75% Cash.
*FOMC WATCH/BOUNCE WATCH. August US Housing Starts came in 12.2% higher than in July and Building Permits came in 10% lower. So more people were buying homes than in the month prior as if the economic situation was improving, or maybe they were trying to lock in a rate they won't see until 2025 or 2026. And less people were building, which is more in line with what one might expect as the world is on the brink of a deep recession. Today's residential construction data should force the Federal Reserve to go with a 100bps FFR hike tomorrow but the odds are still in favor of it being a 75bps hike. Cryptos, Equities, Futures, Gold, EURUSD and Energy are all down while DXY, US Treasuries and VIX are up once again. It's only logical to assume that the DXY will continue its correlative relationship with rising FFR hikes; not to mention the added boost that an official announcement of global economic recession would give to USD. The 13th GDPNow US Q3 GDP estimate came in at 0.3% compared to 0.5% on 09/15. Key Upcoming Dates: FOMC meeting 09/20-09/21 (Statement Released at 2pm EST on 09/21); S&P US September Manufacturing PMI at 945am EST 09/23.*
Price is currently trending down at $19k and is still technically testing $19417 major support for a third consecutive session. Volume is Moderate (high) and has been fairly balanced between buyers and sellers in the past few sessions, indicative of speculation before an upcoming major event. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $22100, this margin is mildly bullish at the moment. RSI is currently trending down at 39 after being rejected by 42.41 resistance, the next support is the uptrend line from 01/22 at ~30-32. Stochastic remains bearish after a rejected crossover attempt and is currently testing 29.70 support. MACD is bearish for the third consecutive session and is currently trending down at -452, the next support is at -869. ADX is currently trending up slightly at 21 as Price continues trend lower, this is mildly bearish at the moment.
If Price is able to bounce here (and defend $19417 support) then it will likely retest the 50 MA + the uptrend line from 06/18/22 at ~$21.4k as resistance. However, if Price continues to break down here, it will likely retest the uptrend line from March 2017 at ~$15k as support for the first time since September 2020. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $20k.
*FOMC WATCH/BOUNCE WATCH. August US Housing Starts came in 12.2% higher than in July and Building Permits came in 10% lower. So more people were buying homes than in the month prior as if the economic situation was improving, or maybe they were trying to lock in a rate they won't see until 2025 or 2026. And less people were building, which is more in line with what one might expect as the world is on the brink of a deep recession. Today's residential construction data should force the Federal Reserve to go with a 100bps FFR hike tomorrow but the odds are still in favor of it being a 75bps hike. Cryptos, Equities, Futures, Gold, EURUSD and Energy are all down while DXY, US Treasuries and VIX are up once again. It's only logical to assume that the DXY will continue its correlative relationship with rising FFR hikes; not to mention the added boost that an official announcement of global economic recession would give to USD. The 13th GDPNow US Q3 GDP estimate came in at 0.3% compared to 0.5% on 09/15. Key Upcoming Dates: FOMC meeting 09/20-09/21 (Statement Released at 2pm EST on 09/21); S&P US September Manufacturing PMI at 945am EST 09/23.*
Price is currently trending down at $19k and is still technically testing $19417 major support for a third consecutive session. Volume is Moderate (high) and has been fairly balanced between buyers and sellers in the past few sessions, indicative of speculation before an upcoming major event. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $22100, this margin is mildly bullish at the moment. RSI is currently trending down at 39 after being rejected by 42.41 resistance, the next support is the uptrend line from 01/22 at ~30-32. Stochastic remains bearish after a rejected crossover attempt and is currently testing 29.70 support. MACD is bearish for the third consecutive session and is currently trending down at -452, the next support is at -869. ADX is currently trending up slightly at 21 as Price continues trend lower, this is mildly bearish at the moment.
If Price is able to bounce here (and defend $19417 support) then it will likely retest the 50 MA + the uptrend line from 06/18/22 at ~$21.4k as resistance. However, if Price continues to break down here, it will likely retest the uptrend line from March 2017 at ~$15k as support for the first time since September 2020. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $20k.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.