Bitcoin Technical Flow
Updated
This is through the eyes of a dynamic trader. For shorts or longs. You can also use these scenarios to analyze a best time to buy and take profit.
Key level for BTC. Bitcoin is at one key support zone. That zone ranges from $9490 - $9073
Scenario 1 - If this key level of support holds, then we could see a march back up to resistance $10766. Of course, if resistance hit we will be looking for it to convert into support.
Scenario 2 - If this key level of support is not broken we will see a fall towards an new key level of support which is zoned around $8160 - $7663.
Scenario 3 - If the first key level of support is held we could see a march to resistance as stated in scenario 1. However, if that resistance is not converted to support then we will have
BTC playing in range.
My personal bias has been leading towards more of a bearish scenario when taking a look at the Elliot wave theory. As a whole BTC took a few days to retest the previous down leg. The Elliott Wave Theory can explain that their could be one more wave down before it decides to revers back to a bullish perspective.
I will use the Bollinger Band indicator & its theory to help follow the flow of the BTC chart. Back testing with this indicator shows that the acting 20 MA in the Bollinger Band is a significant point of interest when looking at the Day Chart and 4 hour chart.
I will try to update everyday and cancel out scenarios along the way.
Key level for BTC. Bitcoin is at one key support zone. That zone ranges from $9490 - $9073
Scenario 1 - If this key level of support holds, then we could see a march back up to resistance $10766. Of course, if resistance hit we will be looking for it to convert into support.
Scenario 2 - If this key level of support is not broken we will see a fall towards an new key level of support which is zoned around $8160 - $7663.
Scenario 3 - If the first key level of support is held we could see a march to resistance as stated in scenario 1. However, if that resistance is not converted to support then we will have
BTC playing in range.My personal bias has been leading towards more of a bearish scenario when taking a look at the Elliot wave theory. As a whole BTC took a few days to retest the previous down leg. The Elliott Wave Theory can explain that their could be one more wave down before it decides to revers back to a bullish perspective.
I will use the Bollinger Band indicator & its theory to help follow the flow of the BTC chart. Back testing with this indicator shows that the acting 20 MA in the Bollinger Band is a significant point of interest when looking at the Day Chart and 4 hour chart.
I will try to update everyday and cancel out scenarios along the way.
Trade active
UPDATE...It seems as if Scenario 1 & 3 are playing out as explained. Bitcoin is now on a upward bound to the targets listed.
I was able to get into a Long based off my target confirmations.
It may take a few days for scenario 1 or 3 to play out so stay tuned. I keep this simple because we over complicate a lot when it comes to trading and we don't have to if we actually trade the plan made. We're prepared for any scenario and wont be surprised by anything based off the initial analysis.
I've updated the chart with some Intra-Day zones which are in green. I use those zones as TP zones and guides for what will happen next.
Bulls are in control as of now, lets see how the bitcoin technicals flow.
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A quick update... Just keeping an eye on the Day Chart as well as the 4hr Chart.
Seems as if Scenario 1 & 3 are in play as mentioned before.
The 4hr chart guides has been hitting its areas of values perfectly.
This could be the next wave/leg up to the red but bulls may want a breather before reaching the main are of value. That value is marked with a red box. You can also see the 200 MA confluence with the red resistance box above as well.
If you are intra day trading or trading to hodl, these green boxes are good areas of value to measure. Im using a basic supply/demand perspective which has now allowed this to be a great trade/call.
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Update...Bitcoin has been on the climb since the beginning of the week as you see. To start off the week we did an initial day chart analysis and went through both bullish and bearish scenarios. As the days went we were able to cross out scenario 2.
I dissected the Day Chart by going into the 4 hour chart, using the same strategy, found areas of value that Bitcoin should hit if a certain point was reached. Ive marked those areas of value with green boxes. The goal of this analysis was to analyze bitcoin's mid-term price by looking at the higher time frames. Our measurements for a bitcoin goes as high as the red box. It just needs to touch it.
As mentioned before, the bulls will need a breather. We can see in the four hour chart that we are resistance the support level of the green box we are in. As we know anything in crypto can happen, we wait for a confirmation in order to decide if Bitcoin will continue to the red or retest another level.(Green Box)
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I don't give exact price points. I give more of a target price zone, areas of value. You all can use your skills to determine entry, when to sell, or take profit
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Update...We have reached target. If you followed this analysis from the beginning you would see that we caught the $1,000+ move to the red.
My analysis can go further and it does. I have a ideal price point in the red box before i take any profit.
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