BitcoinLong
Bitcoin's path will 100% depend on FED meeting
Updated
Bitcoin has become really extremely correlated to the stock market, much to my disappointment to be honest.
It is not the inflation hedge as which it was heralded, instead it behaves 100% like a tech stock.
Thus, the monetary policy of the FED will decide the path forward.
If the FED will raise interest rates strongly at the meeting on September 22nd, then we are going to dump.
But Bitcoin will rise strongly, making everybody bullish again, and in good old Bitcoin fashion, it will then make a fool of bulls and bears alike.
But should inflation come down strongly until late September, and this will have to be seen in the next CPI report in August, then there is a chance that
the FED will start pivoting at some point sooner than expected. Should the FED not raise rates in September, expect a strong rally in stocks and bitcoin.
I really see only these 2 paths forward, and I wish I could say that Bitcoin's behavior depends on this or that indicator, but tbh it doesn't make a lot of
sense any more to look at BTC indicators, it makes much more sense to look at the stock market and analyze if it will rise or fall.
Also, I think in either case, BTC will break the logarithmic downtrend resistance, even if it's only a bounce, because that would make many people bullish,
and there's nothing that BTC likes more than to raise false hopes, before a total reversal into the opposite direction.
It is not the inflation hedge as which it was heralded, instead it behaves 100% like a tech stock.
Thus, the monetary policy of the FED will decide the path forward.
If the FED will raise interest rates strongly at the meeting on September 22nd, then we are going to dump.
But Bitcoin will rise strongly, making everybody bullish again, and in good old Bitcoin fashion, it will then make a fool of bulls and bears alike.
But should inflation come down strongly until late September, and this will have to be seen in the next CPI report in August, then there is a chance that
the FED will start pivoting at some point sooner than expected. Should the FED not raise rates in September, expect a strong rally in stocks and bitcoin.
I really see only these 2 paths forward, and I wish I could say that Bitcoin's behavior depends on this or that indicator, but tbh it doesn't make a lot of
sense any more to look at BTC indicators, it makes much more sense to look at the stock market and analyze if it will rise or fall.
Also, I think in either case, BTC will break the logarithmic downtrend resistance, even if it's only a bounce, because that would make many people bullish,
and there's nothing that BTC likes more than to raise false hopes, before a total reversal into the opposite direction.
Note
I think that the timing has changed, probably we will get some bullish news from the FED (dovish inclination), and a smaller than expected rate hike on September 22nd, prbably 50 basis points. That could make the market rally until November.BTC would reach 43k, the 0.5 fib level:
I still believe that afterwards, we will fall again to the 20k area, and this whole thing will have been part of a very stretched out accumulation zone.
Then in 2024, we have the halving, so that already in mid 2023, BTC will start rising significantly. That is currently the scenario for which I see the highest probability.
But of course, if the FED is super hawkish now, we could get downward pressure, then this scenario will not play out. We shall see soon.
Note
The idea has been canceled by hawkish FED.See my new idea instead for what likely is going to happen instead.
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