Short

Betting small on a reversal

By YourMajesty

Updated

I'm posting my first chart.
My bet is a short rotation down to the area marked on the chart.

Note

Note

Background to the trade thesis:
1. Question marks remain regarding Tether/Finex cash reserve
2. These questions will resurface and trigger a substantial correction

Note

CoinDesk News, May 16th, 2019:
Tether Ordered to Freeze Transfers to Bitfinex by New York Supreme Court

"A New York judge ordered crypto exchange Bitfinex
and its affiliated stablecoin issuer Tether
to turn over documentation
about a loan and a line of credit Tether provided to Bitfinex."

Note

These notes are just speculation — I'm not stating anything of this to be true.
I'm just expressing my thoughts and questions I have.
Do your own research.

Anyway, a few days after being sued by the New York Attorney, Bitfinex announced an ICO for a token of its own called LEO.

Contrary to 99% of all ICOs, no white paper for LEO was made public.
Instead, a marketing document was released.

Futher, the token sale was not made public. Instead it was reserved for
a small group of private investors whose identity haven't been made public.

Bitfinex later announced that:
1. It had sold 100% of its LEO tokens to private investors.
2. All tokens were sold in less than 10 days
3. The token sale raised $1 billion in USDT (Tether)
selling 1 LEO token in return for $1 USDT

So, if I understand this right:
1. Bitfinex premined 1 billion LEO tokens (cost: $0)
2. They sold these tokens to private investors
and raised $1 billion in USDT.
3. Tether is also a premined coin which is supposed to be a
stable coin against the US dollar.
Meaning Tether can only issue as many Tether tokens as it is
holding in fiat dollar cash reserve. Is this correct?

I don't understand much of these things, so I hope some of the crypto news sources, or someone in the comments, will shed some more light on what's going on here.

I'm bearish until things become more clear — I can't help but feel uneasy about
this whole Tether situation. Unless Bitfinex can give real proof that they are sitting on $2 billion of United States Dollar Fiat Cash — I'm bearish for Bitcoin.
The history of Bitcoin exchanges going toxic is too serious to ignore.
Let's hope this works out well in the end! Bitfinex has been a cornerstone
crypto exchange for a number of years.

Note

We got a strong move up, which was expected.
Instead of going long I'm adding to the short position at 7950 with a tight stop.
Both position are only a small portion of the acc (1%).

Tomorrow on Monday, Bitfinex will start offering trading with its own token LEO
on its platform. It will be very interesting to see how this affects price.
If we start to see price going/tipping bearish sideway, then I'm thinking we could
see the start of a C-wave down to the trade target 5150.
Have a great Sunday!

Note

So far, so good.
I'm still waiting/anticipating for some negative news regarding the NY Attorney
to surprise the market and drive a c-wave down to $5150.

I identified $7900 as a key level to watch but it's too early to tell — we could
see a major spike up at any moment, imo.

But like I said, this move needs a drive of some sort and I think some news around
Tether, could trigger this. So, I'll be watching the crypto news sites for signals.

Note

Not much has hapened — still waiting for news to start a c-wave down.
Any strong impulse to the upside will immediately force me to close the trade.
In the meantime — I see no reason to close the trade, and will continue to
monitor news channels for updates on the Tether/Finex situation.

Note

We finally started moving down — albeit slow.
I'm still waiting/anticipating negative news regarding Tether/Bitfinex
as a drive to really push the c-wave down towards $5150.

Both short positions still active — too early to move stops, so don't do it
to avoid getting tagged out if we get a sudden bullish spike.
Will keep monitoring news sites.

Note

I just wanted to mention the possibility of placing a stink bid long
down at $6805 with a tight stop loss.
In case we get a spike down candle like we did on the 17th of May, that position
could then be exited as soon as the bull run up faces resistance around $7500.

I won't do it myself, but I thought it worth to mention the idea in an update.

Note

Trade closed due to being stopped out.
Hope Bitcoin pushes towards 10k now, and that this is not a fake out.

YourMajesty

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