Short

Updated

BTC broken down after multiple retesting 42k USD (Hourly Chart)

Bear flag continuation pattern.
Measured move target at 29.6k USD.

Continues to be rejected by the red 21 EMA on the 4hourly:

Thick orange 200 SMA on the daily fails to hold:

Unlikely to close weekly candle above red 21 EMA:

This may mark a significant change in trend in the longer-term, marking the start of a more drawn out bearish phase (or volatile painful sideways trend punishing both the bulls and the bears).

Significant level to watch is the 42k USD resistance level from here on out.

Potential immediate bearish target to watch out is at the 61.8% Fib retracement of this bull run at ~27k USD.

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+8% mearsured move short term trade opportunity.

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Key resistance defined by downward sloped red line.
Measured move of w-pattern sets BTC above it, with potential further upside in the short-term.

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However, more likely, BTC will merely attempt to retest the red-line but fail to break above to reach the measured move target, before dumping down lower to the immediate bearish target of 29.6k USD.

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Broken down below triangle consolidation after failing to breakout above the sloped resistance line (red). BTC now bouncing up to retest the bottom of the triangle (blue line) support turned resistance. Next bearish continuation target is the 61.8% Fib retracement level (drawn from the bottom of this cycle to the latest ATH) at 27k USD.

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BTC continues to be rejected under the red resistance line despite of the 20% recovery.

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Sell signal on Cyber Ensemble indicator flashed upon BTC's retest of the downward sloped red resistance line.

Another deadcat bounce?
Bullish if BTC somehow manages to pierce above resistance line and turn it into support; then next target would be at the 42kUSD resistance level (also the 38.2% Fib retracement level).

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Actually, the more immediate resistance level to pierce through before continuation higher could be possible would be at the 38366 USD line as shown below.

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However, on the weekly chart, the 50% Fib retracement at 34.4kUSD appears to be a suitable area to rebound from by the close of this week's candle, if we are still in a bull market on the longer timeframe (weekly chart).

Until BTC manages to piece above 38366 USD, BTC still appears weak on the hourly time frame (see above chart), continuously getting rejected by the red descending resistance line.

The red 21 EMA appears to be about to make a bullish cross above the 50 SMA on the hourly chart (see above chart) again though...after a previous failed attempt to pierce through -- with the Cyber Ensemble indicator also flashing a sell signal on the 21stMay at the time.

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A plausible (but improbable at this point) inverse-head-and-shoulder hopium for the masses:

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BTC finally broken above that red descending resistance trendline that had been suppressing BTC during the descend. However TD already at a 9. Need that last hourly candle to close above the 38.4kUSD resistance level (white line) before it has a chance to jump ~10% to retest the 42k USD level (~38.2% Fib retracement level) again.

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1st short-term bullish:
Retested and finding support above the red descending line!
There a good chance of BTC breaking 38.4k USD now, and if it does, 42k USD is the next target.

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Breakout above 38.4kUSD!

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Presently being rejected by the thick orange 200 SMA on the hourly.

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On the macro scheme of things, the recent dip looks merely like a healthy correction down to the ichicloud, before bouncing off it, on the weekly chart.

If BTC is able to recover strongly with the weekly candle closing above the 21 weekly EMA, perhaps even forming a bullish engulfing candle, that will bias the probability towards a bullish continuation higher (great for the Hodlers), rather than further downside towards 20k USD followed by a lengthy sideways consolidation trapped within a wide range (great swing trading opportunities for traders).

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Side Note: There was an instance of the weekly candle closing below the red 21 weekly EMA before strongly recovering in the following week during the 2013 bull market.

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