Long

Bitcoin moving Perfectly as Planned, Fractal still 100% in Play

Updated

Since yesterday i have been calling for a reversal at the 8700/8800 support zone, even though we had bear flags all of the place, so TA suggested we should make a bigger correction down, i assumed bulls would not get a chance to get their perfect entry price around 8200/8000. Since price bounced up from the 8650 i have been predicting each wave almost 100% perfect including the timing. Now that does give confidence that my plan that we should see another rally towards the 10.500. Since we did not make a complete correction, i expect that if price pushes above 9350/9400, we could see an acceleration because of a little FOMO action of people who missed their entry point waiting for bitcoin to make a bigger drop yesterday.

So far so good, but we are absolutely not out of the clear yet! The first big step has been made, a bounce from the support around 8900, where i kept saying the plan is only valid if price stays above the 8800/8900. Around 9300 i said it was probably time to see a drop to test the support levels again, wich is a normal move after a 600 point rally. Just check my previous analysis and you will see some crazy calls in row. I have been accused of being a very big whale, making predictions and minutes after throwing in a couple of millions to push the price up or down :) LOL, i wish i could :).

Bitcoin is still following the fractal i posted a few days back, suggesting that we will probably make one more rally before making a bigger correction. The drop from 9750 was just a bull shake out, nothing more nothing less. Since volatility is back the last few days, i have noticed the market has been moving much more naturally. Not that boring controlled sideways action anymore, with big spikes up and down to move the price to another level. Now we finally see normal market movement again!

My bigger game plan ever since the 6500 accumulation phase was to short the market around 9000. Because of that sideways action around 8200 i got a bit confused, because it was taking so long for the bulls to push price higher i started to doubt if we would be able to reach the 9K levels. Than finally after we broke the 9000 we saw normal volatility again and since we started to made that big drop from the 9750 i knew what was going on. The 9000/9200 was the biggest resistance on the way up, when it finally broke i new what was going on and adjusted my med term plan again.

A few hours ago i predicted a reversal around the 8900 which was spot on, i even drew a line that would show which path it would follow on that low time frame, again perfect :). Before we get to excited, we are not there yet! There are still some bearish signs, even for some Alts as well. So Bitcoin has to stay above the previous low of 8870, but to keep bullish momentum in play for now, we have to stay above the 9000ish. If we are able to break the 9350, i want to see some volume to confirm the breakout. If bulls manage that, than i am confident we will see a break of the 9750. I do have to mention, i was very confident until i saw one of my contra indicators here at TV also looking up, my first thought was, CRAP :) LOL.

And to keep you guys even more excited, that sick SICK theory i have about what is going on the past few weeks, is still 100% in play. I still won't say what it is, because it's absolutely not confirmed yet. When the moment is there, i may reveal it. But you won't like and some people will hate me for it, so i am not sure yet if i will share it.
For more information read some of my previous analysis

Good luck trading and don't forget to like if you appreciate what i am doing here and the information i am giving you :)

My previous analysis

Bitcoin Fractal still valid, another rally in to the 10K's

Note

Zoom in of the chart, here we can see the range we are in on the low time frame. These are the levels to watch now, I think a break of the red or green are will decide which direction we will take this weekend.

Note

This is what i have in mind the last few hours, a big triangle. An upwards breakout should bring us towards the 10.300

Note

Some very strange price action again that happened earlier. Anyway, so far so good. It broke out of the triangle and is retesting it as support now. That former red resistance area should work as a support now

Bitcoin moving Perfectly as Planned, Fractal still 100% in Play

Note

Sorry wrong one :)

Note

However, not every exchange shows the same picture. We could see another small drop towards 9100 if we don't break that 9350 soon, as long as it stays above 8900 everything is still short term bull

Note

Price should stay above 9300ish to keep bullish momentum at maximum. it could trigger that inverse H&S with a target of 9700. I normally don't like these kind of H&S at this position. But so far so good

Note

It's looking better and better now :) Almost through the resistance

Don't forget to like if you appreciate what i am doing here

Note

Above that green circle is still good!

Note

I made a zoom in of the fractal i have been showing this week. It's difficult to say where we are right now. The triangle says we are at the right yellow circle now. But it's really 50/50 for me at the moment. It's weekend now, so chances are smaller that we will see a big rally today. As long as we stay above the triangle, things stay bullish.

I don't know how to put both those fractals next to each other in 1 chart, than the picture would be more clear

Note

But anyone who knows how to put 2 charts next to each other? If so PM me or explain it here below, than i can post one of those, makes the picture more clearer than.

Note

I found it guys, thanks for the help :)

Note

Looks like we will make small drop now

Note

Still think we we will make a small drop, ideally we stay above the 9100

Note

So the bulls are fighting back, looked like it would drop from that rising channel, but all of a sudden it got pushed back in. Not convinced yet, a rise above 8400/8450 would confirm it, otherwise still chance that we make a correction downwards

Note

8400/8450 is 9400/9450 of course :)

Note

It's weekend and it is getting boring again. Looks like the bulls don't want to let it drop, staying at the highs. Can't really tell what will happen next. Could be making an upwards triangle now here as well. I am not watching this anymore, taking some time off. If a big move happens, than i will try to post an update

Note

Lets see if the support of the triangle will hold. Things, it looked like a breakout upwards earlier, but than it dropped again almost confirming a false break out. This means that we will probably drop some more

Note

I think we will drop towards the 9100, would be a good place to test the support again

Note

Fractal says we should go up from here :)

Note

Retest of the triangle

Note

This fractal is really amazing if I say so myself :). I am not at home so I can’t judge it very well now. This drop is still the fractal, it I can’t really tell how far it may how.

Besides the fractal it’s having some bearish signs, so fingers on the trigger. Also looking at some alts, again mixed signals

Note

Making quite the drop, I think according to the fractal, it is allowed to stay above the previous low before this rally, around 9200. But don’t follow the fractal blindly! The bearish signals I was saying before, some rising wedges I see here and there. The speed of this drop actually confirms them. So it’s tricky now.

Note

So far the 9200 is holding, can’t really help you guys now. Look at the chars above, for the support and resistance area’s. So far it looks like a big bearish wedge where we dropped out of.

There are 2 options. The fractal is still in play as long as we stay above 9200 (maybe also 9100) so we could just be going up slowly again.

Other option is, even if we go up, watch out for a lower high around 9400/9500, if that happens, than we could see an acceleration downwards. Could mean we will start wave C of an abc correction. Alts are also. So fingers on the triggers :)

Note

I can see a small inverse H&S now, but it’s a weak one, looks like it is turning into a small bearish wedge. So we have to go up quickly, otherwise it will continue the drop. There some alts who did already reach its target of that same small Inverse H&S, so it could be because of the alts that it’s a weak h&s. A drop below 8250 will confirm the wedge I think. But so far we can assume we go higher from here

Note

8250=9250, sorry guys. Working on my mobile now to keep you posted

Note

9250 is a small confirmation, drop below the previous low would indicate drop to 9100/9000

Note

Things are not looking so good, Fractal is still in play, but chances are smaller now. Will try to set up a new analysis soon

Note

I think we will drop towards the 8900 again, looking at this picture it confirms it. Thing thats bothering me, to many people here are looking above the 10K right now. A few days ago i said the same that my contra indicator was looking up all of a sudden, i did not like that. now it does not work for each move of course, but mostly does at the end of a move. So i wish i did not now about him, but it hard to ignore :)

Note

Scary picture

Note

The support(9200) broke, this is bad for the short term!

botje11

Also on:

Disclaimer

The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.