Is past prologue? Lessons from the last parabolic move Dec 2017
Updated
Notice anything?
Parabolic moves are known across multiple different disciplines.
In ecology, in reference to population growth of a species, they will go parabolic while the environment can sustain it, until it passes what is know as the "carrying capacity". At which point it will still shoot above it, until it eventually crashes below it.
As reference in my post linked to this idea below, I correctly identified the official start of the uptrend (at about 10K), and in fact on the weekly, that has not officially been broken yet.
Since the start of the parabilic move, when we officially entered an uptrend (consecutive higher highs, and higher lows on the weekly), we have had two breaks of the up trend (a lower high, and a lower low), but they weren't followed up by subsequent lower highs and lower lows, and in fact re-established the uptrend.
This week ending on Sunday (6pm CST where I live), we currently have a higher low (as opposed to last week), but a lower high (also opposed to last week. This does not indicate a downtrend yet, but a not of caution. Also in conjunction with the daily, and the comparison to the parabolic move in 2017, I am highly cautious.
If we were to establish a new higher high this week, than we still have a continuation of an uptrend, however if not. Be cautious!
This is not investment advice, just my opinion.
Parabolic moves are known across multiple different disciplines.
In ecology, in reference to population growth of a species, they will go parabolic while the environment can sustain it, until it passes what is know as the "carrying capacity". At which point it will still shoot above it, until it eventually crashes below it.
As reference in my post linked to this idea below, I correctly identified the official start of the uptrend (at about 10K), and in fact on the weekly, that has not officially been broken yet.
Since the start of the parabilic move, when we officially entered an uptrend (consecutive higher highs, and higher lows on the weekly), we have had two breaks of the up trend (a lower high, and a lower low), but they weren't followed up by subsequent lower highs and lower lows, and in fact re-established the uptrend.
This week ending on Sunday (6pm CST where I live), we currently have a higher low (as opposed to last week), but a lower high (also opposed to last week. This does not indicate a downtrend yet, but a not of caution. Also in conjunction with the daily, and the comparison to the parabolic move in 2017, I am highly cautious.
If we were to establish a new higher high this week, than we still have a continuation of an uptrend, however if not. Be cautious!
This is not investment advice, just my opinion.
Note
Correction. We had one week that was a break (true lower high, and lower low), the second I am referring to is this current week, which is not confirmed yet. At this point (at time of posting) it's a higher low, and a lower high), which basically tells us nothing, but if the week closes as such, that would not indicate a downtrend, but also not indicate a continuation of an uptrend.And the daily and lower time frames, and giving me some serious causes for concern.
Note
If past is prolouge, we may slightly exceed all time highs (ATH) again, from FOMO, and euphoria. But watch out, if it doesn't break ATH substantially, be very careful.Last time the parabolic move broke, it lost half it's value in a week, and ultimately went from 20K to 3.5K before starting a new move back up.
Just a word of caution.
Note
The weekly candle has closed. The uptrend is broken, but it is not a confirmed downtrend yet. If it doesn't achieve a new higher high, and does now break 30100, that will be confirmation of a downtrend.Note
Caution. Last weeks higher low, just got broken by a lower low. We still have three days until the weekly candle closes, but we have an definite lower low, and an apparent lower high.This would indicate the start of of potential down trend, but two data points don't make a trend. Another lower low, and lower high (on the weekly, if it finishes as it is looking now, with a lower low [confirmed] and a lower high [at present unconfirmed, but looking very likely] would be needed to confirm a down trend on the weekly.)
But for bulls (or those who can only go long), I would recommend caution.
Note
This is not a confirmed down trend yet, but this is a break from the confirmed uptrend. This could easily become a repeat of 2018 in the aftermath of the last parabolic move in 2017.Note
It looks like the break of the up trend on the weekly is going to be confirmed. Unless thinngs change drastically in the next 24 hours, we will have both a lower high, and lower low on the weekly. Is that a confirmed downtrend? No. We would need to see another lower high, and lower low on the weekly to confirm that. But it is a definitive break of the uptrend. So we are either in the process of consolidation, or at the start of a new downtrend.Note
I haven't updated this in a while, but I was right. Last week we posted a lower high, and a lower low. This is looking now like downtrend. If we post another lower high, and lower low this week (not yet confirmed), it will be a confirmed downtrend.Note
I lower low would be at 28731.99, and conversely a higher high would be at 37857.01.Note
Another update. The downtrend is invalidated. We got a higher high on the weekly:What does this mean? Not much, other than we don't have a confirmed uptrend, nor do we have a confirmed down trend. So basically consolidation.
Keep in mind though, this is looking eerily similar to the last parabolic move on the daily.
At EMCS, we offer our services to develop your own custom Strategies and Indicators.
Additionally we provide access to a wide selection of proprietary trading tools we have developed as a subscription service, and we continue to innovate.
Additionally we provide access to a wide selection of proprietary trading tools we have developed as a subscription service, and we continue to innovate.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.