Since November 2022, Bitcoin has been on a remarkable bull run, and a minor correction is overdue. Observing the chart, we've been trapped in a consolidation phase for three months, with resistance at $72,000 and support at $60,000. While some "crypto gurus" predict a continued upward trend, the chart will ultimately decide. Notice the parallel channel (Jun channel) where Bitcoin has been rejected and partially maintained for 30 days. Moreover, the larger parallel channel (November channel) has been respected since November 2022, and Bitcoin has found support on it. To confirm further upside, it's crucial that the price stays above the November channel and breaks above the Jun channel, signaling a bullish trend that will challenge the $72,000 resistance. Failure to do so may result in a drop to $53,000 or lower. 
BTCUSD
BTCUSD Note
As indicated on the chart, we've broken down from the June channel and entered the November channel. A pullback to retest the June channel's resistance level is likely before we continue to move downwards.Note
On July 5th, Bitcoin nearly reached $53,000, as I predicted. However, what's next? Although Bitcoin briefly touched $53,000, the 1-day candle closed above $56,522, which is significant. This is important because we initially broke out of the consolidation phase on May 1st, made a lower low, and then returned to the consolidation zone. Yesterday, Bitcoin fell below $56,522 but formed a hammer candle, indicating a reversal and liquidity sweep.Given the Halving and ETF, the market still has bullish potential. In strong uptrends, prices often retrace to:
- 23.6% for a minor correction
- 38.2% for a moderate correction
- 50% for a significant correction
We recently corrected to $53,000, close to the 38.2% level, indicating a moderate correction. If bulls push the price back into the consolidation zone, further upside is likely. However, failure to do so may result in further downside.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.