The bleeding stops tonight! 60 day BTC cycle over. 18.4k Next Wk
Updated
Ok. Let me explain what is going on in this noisy chart folks. I am sorry for all of the lines.
The lines that I would like to explain are:
1) The two up-trending blue supports near our 50 day MA.
These should stop us tonight. If we break through the first, we still have another. They are both very good support. Break 'em and we're going down to 11k. However, I don't think this will happen.
2) The purple lines in the bottom of the RSI between the black vertical.
The reason I don't think we'll break our support tonight is because all throughout 2017 BTC has followed a pattern that I've noticed: 60 day cycles (on average). For the first 40-45 days of this cycle, BTC trends up. Massively. For the remainder of the cycle (the last 15-20 days) BTC trends down. This has happened repeatedly. I've measured these 60 day cycles with those purple lines that I have orange arrows pointing at. The black vertical lines mark the beginning and ending of this cycle. Tonight marks the end of another one of these 60 day cycles.
My hunch is that by tomorrow morning the bulls will show up in full force again.
3) The vertical purple lines:
These are fractals. I have measure the up-movement of the last trend from BTC's lowest point to highest. We then formed another clear downtrend channel. Perfect! A good sign that fractals will work in our favor to show us our next short term target. I clone my first fractal and set it at BTC's current low within that down channel (bottom-most of the 4 red bars). This shows me that our new near term target will be anywhere from $18,400-18,800. I suspect we hit this target sometime next week.
Get your buy orders lined up. We are in the buy zone now.
Happy trading all!
The lines that I would like to explain are:
1) The two up-trending blue supports near our 50 day MA.
These should stop us tonight. If we break through the first, we still have another. They are both very good support. Break 'em and we're going down to 11k. However, I don't think this will happen.
2) The purple lines in the bottom of the RSI between the black vertical.
The reason I don't think we'll break our support tonight is because all throughout 2017 BTC has followed a pattern that I've noticed: 60 day cycles (on average). For the first 40-45 days of this cycle, BTC trends up. Massively. For the remainder of the cycle (the last 15-20 days) BTC trends down. This has happened repeatedly. I've measured these 60 day cycles with those purple lines that I have orange arrows pointing at. The black vertical lines mark the beginning and ending of this cycle. Tonight marks the end of another one of these 60 day cycles.
My hunch is that by tomorrow morning the bulls will show up in full force again.
3) The vertical purple lines:
These are fractals. I have measure the up-movement of the last trend from BTC's lowest point to highest. We then formed another clear downtrend channel. Perfect! A good sign that fractals will work in our favor to show us our next short term target. I clone my first fractal and set it at BTC's current low within that down channel (bottom-most of the 4 red bars). This shows me that our new near term target will be anywhere from $18,400-18,800. I suspect we hit this target sometime next week.
Get your buy orders lined up. We are in the buy zone now.
Happy trading all!
Note
Looks like our supports held as expected! Yay! We may see one more test tonight. ...And maybe we won't? I don't know. I've had many questions in past posts as well as this one asking me where you should buy in and sell. Please remember guys, I am not in that business. I work full time, do this on the side, and I don't want that responsibility on my shoulders. These are simply ideas that I pose for your observation.
As any good investor, I would recommend you research and decide for yourself your own buy and sell points. What I WILL recommend (as I have learned this the hard way through experience) is that you exercise much disciple and patience. NEVER go all in on anything. Diversify your investments. You should be in multiple markets, not just crypto. You should be in multiple exchanges, not just Coinbase/GDAX. You should be in multiple cryptos, not just Bitcoin. And you should be in multiple blockchain technologies and ideas, not just similar ones. You'll never hit a home run this way, but I guarantee you won't strike out either.
Also, have cash on hand to buy more in the event of a major downturn.
Finally, when you buy in to anything, pace yourself. Dollar cost average your buy-ins (I'd recommend 5-10 different buy-in points around any zone) and do the same when you exit out.
Bitcoin is still in a buy zone at this point. Set some of your buys higher and set some of your buys lower than the current price.
Good luck my crypto friends!
Note
Despite South Korea news last night our (2) two uptrending blue support lines held firm. At least, two lesson we can learn from this little flash crash:1) Technicals precede news almost always. If my technicals don't precede the news, I'm probably just overlooking something or still have indicators to learn and apply to my charts.
2) Once again, set multiple buy-in level. Some lower than you'd expect. And some higher. And always have cash on hand for these bargain basement deals!
Cheers, my crypto trading friends!
Note
Supports broken. Further support at $12600 and $11000.Note
$12600 support has held and our new cycle has begun! Yay!Take a look at the chart below. With the extended consolidation, it became necessary for me to update my targets. This extended consolidation allows me to also extend my target(s). Notice I have two now.
So, what is going on here is that it seems we are in a wedge. Elliott Wave dictates an ABCDE touch and then break out. However, some of the time (I do not know what the statistic ration is?), we will not experience the last wave. This is why I have two orange arrows pointing out of the triangle. We have two possibilities:
a) Hit the top of the triangle and break straight out or,
b) After hitting the top, we go back down, bounce off of the bottom and then break out.
Because of the downtrending resistance noted in the RSI chart, I expect the latter possibility to become more probable. However, as often is the case, Bitcoin could surprise me again and just shoot right through.
Targets are:
#1 - Just short of our last ATH. Take some off here.
#2 - $28,000 or the beginning of March, whichever comes first.
Why the beginning of March you asked? Check out the cycles again. Notice we are right on queue and headed up again. This means, we should have about 45 days of uptrend movement before we start heading down again for the last 15 days of the cycle and right into mid-March. Always keep this cycle in mind. BTC is pretty consistent with it.
Happy trading!
Note
So, Bitcoin continues to surprise me. Nothing new I guess. As you all know, technical analysis is mostly a game of probabilities base on indicators. But probabilities are just that. They will not ever guarantee certainty.It appears we have now entered into a downward BULLISH channel or flag pattern. In these down channels, we will often see three touches on both sides and then go. Of course, sometimes this does not happen. I have outlined what it might look like if it does.
Our lower supports are still the same. We've broken below 12.6k. We now have 11k for support. Some support at 9.3k. And lots more at 8.6k (our .236 fib retracement value).
Believe it or not, I am super excited about this move down. For me, it shows me that BTC is not as sick as I was beginning to believe. It shows me BTC is healing and is about to get strong again.
This move down is exactly what we need!
In regards to the cycles I've outlined in the RSI section. Last year we did have one longer 70ish day cycle. This was followed by a shorter 50 day. It appears BTC is completing another one of these longer cycles. You can expect that the next move UP will be severe and rapid.
Targets are still in place.
Hope you have your cash on hand for these bargain deals.
Happy Trading friends.
Note
Forgot the revised chart. Here it is:Note
Here's what I am currently seeing on my chart.Obviously, out 60 day cycle is extended. This does have to happen during the course of the year at least once. Why? Because there are 365 days in a year. If each cycle was only 60 days then it would only equal 360 days.
But, as I showed previously, we had already extended a cycle once before. The reason for this extended cycle could have something to do with the huge run up right before Christmas, the futures opening, big money pouring in, and enormous and exuberant hype. Bitcoin went up FAR FAR TOO FAST. It must have time to rest and bleed the sellers out.
Now, it looks like Bitcoin sellers are done for a few days at least. But the bulls still don't look very strong.
We could go up to 14.3k before BTC is forced make a decision (see chart). At this point, if the bulls have enough strength, we break out of the channel and continue up to my targets outline here and in previous posts.
Target #1 - @20k
Target #2 - @28k
Or ...we continue down. If we go down, the 200MA will move up and over to meet us at the bottom of my channel where the bottom of the channel and the 200MA will intersect (see chart again). This will be huge support and should be enough of a correction at that point to get our bulls back in the game. I expect this intersection to take place (if we do go down from 14.3k) in about 2 weeks or so at around $7.4-7.5k.
Let's all watch and see how BTC decides to try to surprise us this time around. Lol.
Happy trading friends.
Trade closed: target reached
Cycle over-run by 22 days means the next bull run will be quick and concise! If this cycle pattern remains to be trusted, the next cycle should only last @35-40 days. Meaning, bull run in Feb. and more selling mid-March. Let's observe the price action to conclude how this theory will play out.
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