Long

BTC on massive support, breakout imminent

Updated

Hey guys,

BTC is currently sitting directly on the yearly trendline that started with the capitulation candle in January 2015. Imo this represents significant support that should be taken into consideration when you think of entering shorts right now.
This is the same trendline from different angles.

Yearly view of the 2015 trendline:

Monthly view of the 2015 trendline:

Day view of the 2015 trendline:

4H view of the 2015 trendline:

Also, BTC is obviously getting trapped between the 200D-SMA and 200D-EMA, finding support on the 200D-VWMA (purple).

The local fight shows BTC is trying to gain support on the triangle and brings itself into position to break the 50D-SMA (teal) after slowly grinding through the 61.8 Fib BB (yellow).

The outlook is rather bullish with this kind of support holding BTC in the mid-3000 range, but pullbacks of 50-200 dollars can certainly happen before the breakout really occurs.
My lowest upside breakout target is 4.8k, the highest being 5.4k.

Trade safe.

Note

Just a quick update:

Of course BTC can break to the downside, too. The trendline might represent strong support, but as you can see from the charts the price might hover around the trendline for a while, spiking in both directions. My shorting strategy would be to wait until BTC firmly breaks the trendline to the downside and comes back to retest it. The volume at this point will show how probable it is for BTC to get rejected/fail the retest and then dive downwards. I would never enter a short position while BTC holds this line.

For now I'm long from 3670.

Going to update this thread with more charts soon.

Note

So we had a VWAP gap fill just now. Price dropped exactly into the box where it was supposed to be, touching the bottom line of the triangle once more. The only worrying thing here is the high selling volume. I'm going to observe this more carefully now.

Note

The .618 fib retracement level for this upmove is exactly at 3800, so we should hold this level for now. If it breaks, we could see a pullback and it would mean that BTC hasn't got the strength needed to break the SMA on a weekend.

Note

So we barely hold the 3800 for now. The new daily candle shows that volume is still dropping lower and the price remains in the breakout area. It is likely that we will have a major movement on Sunday.

Note

Price is hovering around the yearly trendline in a closer range now. The decision will be made very soon.

We just had a retest of the 50D-SMA and it failed. We are back @ .618 level, and for now it seems bullish.

Note

And another attempt to break through... still lacks volume. But BTC has found good support at 3820-3825. The final push is needed.

Note

Price is now exactly in that tiny area between trendline and SMA price level. The squeezing is extreme right now, this won't be resolved in a peaceful manner.

Note

So we are approaching the SMA with diagonal movement. The breakthrough will depend on the volume that will come in.

Note

There is a successful attempt to break through, finally! But the volume is still very low and we need to see bullish continuation, otherwise this will fall back down.

Note

So the squeeze resulted in a nice upmove, however this was a rather hesitant one. I would have expected much more volume to come in and drive the price to 4150, but it stopped 100 dollars below that. Nevertheless, the situation resolved cleanly and we can expect further upwards movement from now on IF we find support on the 50D-SMA.

The next boss we have to beat is the 200D-EMA at exactly 4153. This will be another tough one, but I expect it to be broken soon judging from the current outlook.

Note

The bigger plan:

There are some major levels of resistance ahead, the strongest one being the 200D-EMA at 4153. It is clear as day that BTC needs to crush this resistance to pave the way to the 4.8-5.4k zone. The next resistance is directly at 4073. I hope BTC manages to gain momentum tonight/tomorrow and that the Bitfinex maintenance (or rather manipulative behaviour) doesn't impact the market in a negative way.

Note

Oh gosh, did I say 200D-EMA? Ofc I meant 200W. Sorry!

FireflyTA

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