Where we're most likely to be in the general trend structure now is fairly subjective. We came up off the butterfly support mentioned previous which is a great start for the bull move but we're also still well inside of bull trap territory.
If we have a low or a bull trap forming, should be a big spike here.
If we have a low or a bull trap forming, should be a big spike here.
Note
This rally is a weird one for bears in indices/crypto because on one hand, this is very clearly the type of stuff you'd love to see in a bull trap. Very effective stop gunning etc. On the other hand you have the duel risk of being completely wrong or just being subject to nominal new high stop hunting (Which is increasingly common these days- it's far harder these day to use classic patterns to know the exact high even if the net thesis will fail, see the 2022 spike out as an example).
As is always my stance on this, the best way to deal with these risks is to think about them before hand. Be bullish into supports. Plan the optimal bear levels to short. Be bullish breaks of resistance.
This, in theory, gives you the best odds of profiting in any given outcome.
Note
Wrong post in the second one. The case for the nominal new high trade in BTC was this one. 
Note
So my general trading pattern in these (and I do always try to do it the exact same way that I've worked out my expected odds for) is I try to be bullish into the low area. Make sure I at least catch the first bounce. Then I know I have three mains zones I can fade and lose. If I make over 1:3 on my bull trade, I can bet on all these levels for the cost of my first bounce profits.
I try to short around where A is. Usually if I get this wrong but there's a dip I end up about breaking even on that one.
Often I'll buy the A drop (as this post is discussing right now). Then I'll try larger trades at the C point. And I'll often try fading a new high if there's some sort of harmonic or something to support it.
When executed exactly as proposed, this allows the betting on all the optimal levels for a big bear trade while giving you very small overall risk of losing.
Excellent for trading - and a really useful thing to learn for hedging bull exposure, if you're into that kinda
Note
I do suspect we might end up seeing a new high here.Contingent on SPX holding 5200 area I'd say.
Trade closed manually
Upper resistance zone hit. If selling is coming, it'll be coming soon. 
We may be inside of a crash event to 3000 in SPX.
Read the full case with backlog of historic analysis/forecasts here: holeyprofitnewsletter.substack.com/p/the-case-for-3000-in-spx
Read the full case with backlog of historic analysis/forecasts here: holeyprofitnewsletter.substack.com/p/the-case-for-3000-in-spx
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
We may be inside of a crash event to 3000 in SPX.
Read the full case with backlog of historic analysis/forecasts here: holeyprofitnewsletter.substack.com/p/the-case-for-3000-in-spx
Read the full case with backlog of historic analysis/forecasts here: holeyprofitnewsletter.substack.com/p/the-case-for-3000-in-spx
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.