BitcoinShort
Possible fakeout scenario similar to mid-August ($12,000 breach)
Updated
Still a few hours away from daily close, but the similarities with the mid-August fakeout are interesting.
a) breakout volume with ~3 hours until close is not exceptional at all (2, 5);
b) RSI is on its way to confirm another bearish divergence (3, 6).
In my mind:
- losing $20,000 tomorrow would confirm a fakeout and I'd expect sell volume to pick-up;
- staying above prev.ATH with increasing volume invalides this idea and potentially confirms a new support level.
I believe risk to the downside to be bigger and expect volume to pick up tomorrow, regardless of direction, as we'll mark 3 years from the previous ATH on the same date back in 2017. Roubini must be mad af.
Manage your bias and keep a cool head, I don't believe we're there yet.
Cheers
o/
a) breakout volume with ~3 hours until close is not exceptional at all (2, 5);
b) RSI is on its way to confirm another bearish divergence (3, 6).
In my mind:
- losing $20,000 tomorrow would confirm a fakeout and I'd expect sell volume to pick-up;
- staying above prev.ATH with increasing volume invalides this idea and potentially confirms a new support level.
I believe risk to the downside to be bigger and expect volume to pick up tomorrow, regardless of direction, as we'll mark 3 years from the previous ATH on the same date back in 2017. Roubini must be mad af.
Manage your bias and keep a cool head, I don't believe we're there yet.
Cheers
o/
Note
On the 4h chart it's already going for invalidations:- volume is considerably higher, as ich1baN mentioned earlier;
- RSI at 80+ is showing 'start of a new leg up" strenght.
If this keeps going or retraces not lower than $20,000 I'll consider it a breakout confirmation. and risk is on.
Take a look at this fractal though, from June 1st top, also on the 4h:
Seems way cleaner and similarly price action now invalidates this one too!
Also, FED confirmed that the money printer will keep going. I guess $26,000-$28,000 comes next before any meaningful correction.
GG
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