BITCOIN - High Probability Trading Setup!
Updated
Yesterday, on my previous post, I made an update where I said that the $12,000 can be the turning point, let's see currently it has held nicely. Luckily we don't have to do search reversal areas, luckily we have a pretty good indication: downwards channel and the counter trendline. Yesterday, the counter trendline break worked perfectly and hopefully today is not an exception.
Again, the price is on the edge and I have to post it pretty quickly. Never knows, usually when I start to make those posts then the sleeping giant starts to wake up, it is a classical scenario :)
Do you remember when I said on my "Multi-Timeframe Analysis" post: "Weekly Gravestone Doji has a lot of "free space" between close and the top". What does that "free space" mean?
Usually, the market doesn't accept those. Did you knew (this example is more from Forex but...) - gaps (those occur mostly after the weekend) gets filled 80-90% of the time, it is also a "free space" and the market want's to fill those gaps and it fills, there is just a matter of time. Now the Gravestone Doji:
As you see the candle is huge if you compare it with others. Yes, it is a Shooting Star formation and etc. but it is not symmetrically compared with other candles around it. If there is a huge candle as it is right now on the Weekly then usually the price starts to fill some part of the candle. Currently, everything looks fine and the price has made this unfilled area a bit smaller, great. (Hopefully, you understand what I meant about that)
Around $12,000 we had some reversal signs:
1.
12K itself should act as a resistance
2. Channel upper trendline should act as resistance (it's a bit mixed, more about that below)
3. 2x AB=CD
4. Smaller channel upper trendline (is not on the image, too much noise)
5. And we are filled a bit that "free space"
Sadly the Fibonacci golden ratio is untouched, it is around $12,250 but no problem, we don't search reversal area, we search breakout confirmation.
Okay, the rejection area is now clearer, now the confirmation area.
After 2019 high, the price has made lower lows and lower highs, so, the short-term trend is downwards. In general, if the price takes a direction into a certain trend then it starts to move in the channel. Currently, the parallel channel is marked with orange lines. At the moment, the price trades above the channel but if the price goes back below the upper orange line then the setup would be even more powerful. That's why I want to share this confirmation area because this scenario is the highest probability setup around the current levels and remember, what do we need to search - we need to search high probability setups, so we are on the right path.
The confirmation areas
A perfect scenario and the most profitable scenario must happen almost within a few hours.
The most powerful confirmation: a 1-hour candle close below $11,400:
1. Then the price is back in the descending parallel channel.
2. Short-term lower highs are the indications that the short-term downwards trend can continue.
3. Then the price is below the important price level (blue horizontal line)
4. And now the most powerful criterion - then we have a candle close below the short-term counter trendline (black trendline). Those counter trendline breaks have offered a lot of opportunities and a lot of Successful opportunities. If we get a candle close below $11,400 then we should have a pretty nice "Short" setup!
The higher red arrow
Currently, we are above the channel. This channel upper trendline could easily act now as a support and a classical retest situation can drive the price into the higher levels. I can't share a "Long" call here because those criteria are a pretty week and as said, the Fibonacci Golden ratio 62% is untouched, around $12,250, which can easily work as a strong resistance level.
This higher red arrow stays alive if the price goes higher and stays below the $12,400. If it goes higher then 12,4k then it can work out but the probability is much lower. Above $12,400 are the new higher high area and the market structure changes above that mentioned price level.
SUMMARY: Long story short, the price can easily go higher because it trades currently above the parallel channel (orange lines), the breakout candle was pretty strong and the channel upper trendline can work as a supporter. I can't share a "Long" call because there are some strong resistance levels just above the current price and actually the major reason; there is a much higher probability setup where we can be more successful. This is the breakout trade opportunity and we need a 1H candle close below $11,400 to confirm it. It has to happen pretty soon or this becomes invalid.
Do your own research and if this matching with mine then you are ready to go!
Please, take a second and support my effort by hitting the "LIKE" button, it is my only fee from You!
Best regards,
Vaido
Again, the price is on the edge and I have to post it pretty quickly. Never knows, usually when I start to make those posts then the sleeping giant starts to wake up, it is a classical scenario :)
Do you remember when I said on my "Multi-Timeframe Analysis" post: "Weekly Gravestone Doji has a lot of "free space" between close and the top". What does that "free space" mean?
Usually, the market doesn't accept those. Did you knew (this example is more from Forex but...) - gaps (those occur mostly after the weekend) gets filled 80-90% of the time, it is also a "free space" and the market want's to fill those gaps and it fills, there is just a matter of time. Now the Gravestone Doji:
As you see the candle is huge if you compare it with others. Yes, it is a Shooting Star formation and etc. but it is not symmetrically compared with other candles around it. If there is a huge candle as it is right now on the Weekly then usually the price starts to fill some part of the candle. Currently, everything looks fine and the price has made this unfilled area a bit smaller, great. (Hopefully, you understand what I meant about that)
Around $12,000 we had some reversal signs:
1.
12K itself should act as a resistance2. Channel upper trendline should act as resistance (it's a bit mixed, more about that below)
3. 2x AB=CD
4. Smaller channel upper trendline (is not on the image, too much noise)
5. And we are filled a bit that "free space"
Sadly the Fibonacci golden ratio is untouched, it is around $12,250 but no problem, we don't search reversal area, we search breakout confirmation.
Okay, the rejection area is now clearer, now the confirmation area.
After 2019 high, the price has made lower lows and lower highs, so, the short-term trend is downwards. In general, if the price takes a direction into a certain trend then it starts to move in the channel. Currently, the parallel channel is marked with orange lines. At the moment, the price trades above the channel but if the price goes back below the upper orange line then the setup would be even more powerful. That's why I want to share this confirmation area because this scenario is the highest probability setup around the current levels and remember, what do we need to search - we need to search high probability setups, so we are on the right path.
The confirmation areas
A perfect scenario and the most profitable scenario must happen almost within a few hours.
The most powerful confirmation: a 1-hour candle close below $11,400:
1. Then the price is back in the descending parallel channel.
2. Short-term lower highs are the indications that the short-term downwards trend can continue.
3. Then the price is below the important price level (blue horizontal line)
4. And now the most powerful criterion - then we have a candle close below the short-term counter trendline (black trendline). Those counter trendline breaks have offered a lot of opportunities and a lot of Successful opportunities. If we get a candle close below $11,400 then we should have a pretty nice "Short" setup!
The higher red arrow
Currently, we are above the channel. This channel upper trendline could easily act now as a support and a classical retest situation can drive the price into the higher levels. I can't share a "Long" call here because those criteria are a pretty week and as said, the Fibonacci Golden ratio 62% is untouched, around $12,250, which can easily work as a strong resistance level.
This higher red arrow stays alive if the price goes higher and stays below the $12,400. If it goes higher then 12,4k then it can work out but the probability is much lower. Above $12,400 are the new higher high area and the market structure changes above that mentioned price level.
SUMMARY: Long story short, the price can easily go higher because it trades currently above the parallel channel (orange lines), the breakout candle was pretty strong and the channel upper trendline can work as a supporter. I can't share a "Long" call because there are some strong resistance levels just above the current price and actually the major reason; there is a much higher probability setup where we can be more successful. This is the breakout trade opportunity and we need a 1H candle close below $11,400 to confirm it. It has to happen pretty soon or this becomes invalid.
Do your own research and if this matching with mine then you are ready to go!
Please, take a second and support my effort by hitting the "LIKE" button, it is my only fee from You!
Best regards,
Vaido
Note
Slowly the confirmations start to come, we have a 1H candle close below the counter trendline and inside the channel:Note
NEW BTC Analysis:
If it is useful then do not forget to support my idea post!
Have a great weekend,
Vaido
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