BTC Daily TA Neutral Bullish
Updated
BTCUSD Daily neutral with a bullish bias. Recommended ratio: 53% BTC, 47% Cash. *St. Louis Fed President James Bullard reaffirmed on CNBC today that he does not see the economy in a recession due to resilient job growth and low unemployment but that whether or not we're in one is in the eye of the beholder; he also reiterated that the Fed should continue frontloading rates with an EOY target of 3.75%-4%, considered a bit high compared to consensus. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said to Reuters today that she thinks a 50bps rate hike in September is reasonable but that 75bps could be necessary. She also made some off color remarks regarding inflation and alluded to it potentially having reached a peak by commenting on how she no longer feels the pain of inflation or has to make trade-offs because she now has enough (to withstand inflationary pressures). The San Francisco Fed CEO makes $422,900 per year, which after taxes is more like $137,892 per year, and after SF rent at an average of 5k/month (which she most likely splits with her spouse), she is making at least 78k a year; which makes it interesting for her to related to someone who makes less than 100k a year in San Francisco before taxes and cost of living are considered. Equities seemed to like Paypal beating earnings and revenue estimates but forget that they are essentially a bank and that most banks have done quite well this earnings season. Cryptos are trending up today as investors are slowly returning to Risk-On markets with hopes that inflation has peaked and that the Fed will pivot in Q1 or Q2 2023. Michael Saylor stepped down as CEO after Microstrategy announced Q2 earnings misses and showed their BTC holdings are down 917m; he will now serve as Executive Chairman to the Microstrategy Bitcoin Wallet. Key dates remaining this week: July BLS Employment Situation @ 830am EST (08/04).* Price is completing a Bull Flag formation and is currently trending up at ~23.3k as it aims to retest $24181 minor resistance. Volume is currently Moderate and on track to break a five session streak of seller dominance if it can close today in the green. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at 21.7k, this margin is mildly bearish at the moment. RSI is currently testing the 50/50 uptrend line from November 2018 as resistance at 57 resistance after bouncing at 54. Stochastic remains bearish and is currently trending sideways at 65 as it completes a trough, if it crosses above 68 it would be a bullish crossover. MACD remains bullish and is currently trending sideways at 459 as it is now technically testing 313 support for a second consecutive session. ADX is currently trending down slightly at 19 as Price sees selling pressure, this is mildly bullish at the moment. If Price is able to continue higher here then it will likely retest $24180 minor resistance before potentially retesting the descending trendline from November 2021 at ~28k as resistance. However, if Price breaks down here, it will likely retest the 50 MA as support at ~21.5k. Mental Stop Loss: (one close below) 22.7k.
Note
**Nancy Pelosi had lunch with executives of TSM today. China has not responded immediately to her visit but it is likely that any response will be targeted at Taiwan.**Note
Correction, I misunderstood the salary calculations and thought the estimate combined both semi-monthly payments (so instead of x24, I did x12). San Francisco Fed CEO makes $422,900, which is between $257,280 (adp.com) and $275,784 (smartasset.com) after Federal and States taxes. Considering she has a wife and children they likely own, the average yearly mortgage in SF is $97,404; assuming they both work her share would be $48,702 making her take home salary (minus expenses) between $208,578 and $227,082.
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