Note for next bull run and 4th halving
Self criticism: I failed to predict market top in this past bull run. The reasons are below:
1. Overly optimistic behavior/euphoria
2. Hence expecting the market top to hit the top band of the log curve
3. Inaccurate chain analysis:
3.1 MVRV Z-Score seemed to be misleading
3.2 MVRV turned out to be a better predictor
3.3 Pi-cycle indicator turned out to be a great predictor
For the next bull run, I will be using more conservative estimates. I think game over until June 2024 (Halving #4). On the next halving date, I expect the price to hit ATH again. God knows what inflation rates we will go through between now and then. So the current value of that future 68k probably will be less than 60k if inflation will hold at 10%. If market top to market top will hold at 48 months , we will see the next market top in Q4 2025, longer than 3 years from now. if the top will happen at the middle band of the log curve, it brings us to ~300k. Again adjusted for inflation, the current value of this amount is probably ~250k.
It doesn't look like that we will see a huge drop from here on. So the next couple of quarters will be an ideal time to accumulate. The accumulation zone will be over when the inflation rate will top. If you're a HODLer, your best case scenario is to move your crypto to a hardware wallet, and do something good with your life as 3 years is a long time. Learn a new language, get a graduate degree, become a parent, lose weight... Shift your focus on things that you've been wanting to do and forget about your crypto portfolio until fourth halving date.
1. Overly optimistic behavior/euphoria
2. Hence expecting the market top to hit the top band of the log curve
3. Inaccurate chain analysis:
3.1 MVRV Z-Score seemed to be misleading
3.2 MVRV turned out to be a better predictor
3.3 Pi-cycle indicator turned out to be a great predictor
For the next bull run, I will be using more conservative estimates. I think game over until June 2024 (Halving #4). On the next halving date, I expect the price to hit ATH again. God knows what inflation rates we will go through between now and then. So the current value of that future 68k probably will be less than 60k if inflation will hold at 10%. If market top to market top will hold at 48 months , we will see the next market top in Q4 2025, longer than 3 years from now. if the top will happen at the middle band of the log curve, it brings us to ~300k. Again adjusted for inflation, the current value of this amount is probably ~250k.
It doesn't look like that we will see a huge drop from here on. So the next couple of quarters will be an ideal time to accumulate. The accumulation zone will be over when the inflation rate will top. If you're a HODLer, your best case scenario is to move your crypto to a hardware wallet, and do something good with your life as 3 years is a long time. Learn a new language, get a graduate degree, become a parent, lose weight... Shift your focus on things that you've been wanting to do and forget about your crypto portfolio until fourth halving date.
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