After BTC Halving
Updated
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(BTCUSD 1W chart)
It seems that there is a tendency for it to rise a little more than expected and to fall a little less than expected.
It seems that there are more people who want the coin market to rise.
The Fibonacci ratios on the left correspond to the Fibonacci ratios of the first big upward wave.
Therefore, the left Fibonacci ratio point at 3.618 (65056.39) is an important point.
The Fibonacci ratio on the right is the Fibonacci ratio of the second major upward wave.
This second upward wave is currently underway.
If the price rises above 1 (61383.23) of the second wave and holds, a new wave is likely to occur.
However, I think it is highly likely that the upward trend will continue only if it rises above 3.618 (65056.39) of the first rising wave.
Therefore, I believe that the area between 3.618 (65056.39) and 1.13 (67219.17) is likely to form a strong resistance area.
Therefore, I believe that a resistance zone has been formed between 1 (61383.23) and 1.13 (67219.17).
If the resistance area is broken upward, the next target is expected to be around 1.618 (89126.41), the right Fibonacci ratio point.
If it fails to break through the resistance area, it is expected to create a pullback pattern.
This pull back pattern is expected to be the last ride in an upward trend that will continue until 2025.
The most important support range for a pullback pattern is 0.618 (44234.54) ~ 0.707 (48229.91).
If support is received near the above section, the large upward trend is expected to be maintained.
(1M charts)
Currently, the StochRSI indicator on the 1M chart has reached the highest point of the overbought zone.
The StochRSI indicator on the 1W chart has not yet reached its peak, but is very close to it.
These highs are likely to remain for up to two months.
All of these reasons showed a downward trend.
Therefore, I think there is a high possibility that the same movement will occur this time as well.
Therefore, if the StochRSI indicator reverses and shows a downward trend, you need a trading strategy to counter the decline.
If a pull back pattern appears, there is a high possibility that you will think that the trend has turned downward and sell everything.
It applies to altcoins that need to be sold entirely.
However, unlike previous halvings, this BTC halving is expected to be a new starting point.
So, I hope you endure this movement well and have a good final ride.
Ultimately, if a pull back pattern occurs, the time to buy again will be when the price breaks upward from the current section where the pull back pattern began.
This move comes at a time when retail investors are buying.
Have a good time.
thank you
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- The big picture
The full-fledged upward trend is expected to begin when the price rises above 29K.
This is the section expected to be touched in the next bull market, 81K-95K.
#BTCUSD 12M
1st: 44234.54
2nd: 61383.23
3rd: 89126.41
101875.70-106275.10 (when overshooting)
4th: 13401.28
151166.97-157451.83 (when overshooting)
5th: 178910.15
These are points that are likely to encounter resistance in the future.
We need to see if we can break through these points upward.
Since it is thought that a new trend can be created in the overshooting area, you should check the movement when this area is touched.
If the general upward trend continues until 2025, it is expected to rise to around 57014.33 and then create a pull back pattern.
1st: 43833.05
2nd: 32992.55
-----------------
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Have a good day.
-------------------------------------
(BTCUSD 1W chart)
It seems that there is a tendency for it to rise a little more than expected and to fall a little less than expected.
It seems that there are more people who want the coin market to rise.
The Fibonacci ratios on the left correspond to the Fibonacci ratios of the first big upward wave.
Therefore, the left Fibonacci ratio point at 3.618 (65056.39) is an important point.
The Fibonacci ratio on the right is the Fibonacci ratio of the second major upward wave.
This second upward wave is currently underway.
If the price rises above 1 (61383.23) of the second wave and holds, a new wave is likely to occur.
However, I think it is highly likely that the upward trend will continue only if it rises above 3.618 (65056.39) of the first rising wave.
Therefore, I believe that the area between 3.618 (65056.39) and 1.13 (67219.17) is likely to form a strong resistance area.
Therefore, I believe that a resistance zone has been formed between 1 (61383.23) and 1.13 (67219.17).
If the resistance area is broken upward, the next target is expected to be around 1.618 (89126.41), the right Fibonacci ratio point.
If it fails to break through the resistance area, it is expected to create a pullback pattern.
This pull back pattern is expected to be the last ride in an upward trend that will continue until 2025.
The most important support range for a pullback pattern is 0.618 (44234.54) ~ 0.707 (48229.91).
If support is received near the above section, the large upward trend is expected to be maintained.
(1M charts)
Currently, the StochRSI indicator on the 1M chart has reached the highest point of the overbought zone.
The StochRSI indicator on the 1W chart has not yet reached its peak, but is very close to it.
These highs are likely to remain for up to two months.
All of these reasons showed a downward trend.
Therefore, I think there is a high possibility that the same movement will occur this time as well.
Therefore, if the StochRSI indicator reverses and shows a downward trend, you need a trading strategy to counter the decline.
If a pull back pattern appears, there is a high possibility that you will think that the trend has turned downward and sell everything.
It applies to altcoins that need to be sold entirely.
However, unlike previous halvings, this BTC halving is expected to be a new starting point.
So, I hope you endure this movement well and have a good final ride.
Ultimately, if a pull back pattern occurs, the time to buy again will be when the price breaks upward from the current section where the pull back pattern began.
This move comes at a time when retail investors are buying.
Have a good time.
thank you
--------------------------------------------------
- The big picture
The full-fledged upward trend is expected to begin when the price rises above 29K.
This is the section expected to be touched in the next bull market, 81K-95K.
#BTCUSD 12M
1st: 44234.54
2nd: 61383.23
3rd: 89126.41
101875.70-106275.10 (when overshooting)
4th: 13401.28
151166.97-157451.83 (when overshooting)
5th: 178910.15
These are points that are likely to encounter resistance in the future.
We need to see if we can break through these points upward.
Since it is thought that a new trend can be created in the overshooting area, you should check the movement when this area is touched.
If the general upward trend continues until 2025, it is expected to rise to around 57014.33 and then create a pull back pattern.
1st: 43833.05
2nd: 32992.55
-----------------
Note
(BTC.D 1M chart)In order for a major bull market to begin, BTC dominance is expected to rise to the 55.01-62.47 range or higher and then fall below 50.
(USDT.D 1M chart)
At this time, USDT dominance must be maintained below 4.97.
A major bull market refers to a bull market in which most coins (tokens) renew their new highs (ATH).
Note
(BTCUSDT 1D chart)The volatility period is around March 1st (February 28th - March 2nd).
Accordingly, you need to check which direction it deviates from the 59370.07-66401.82 range.
If supported near the Fibonacci ratio 1 (61338.93), a move to rise above 66401.82 is expected.
After this period of volatility, we expect to see another inflection point around March 10th.
At this time, if the high point cannot be renewed, there is a possibility that the high point will be formed, so you need to think about ways to respond to the decline.
Currently, the BW indicator point is formed at 57037.34.
The 57037.34 point represents an important support and resistance point until a new formation occurs at the BW indicator point.
(BTC.D 1D chart)
BTC dominance rose above 55.01.
Accordingly, it is necessary to check whether it can be supported and rise around 55.01.
If it fails to rise and falls, the key is whether it can fall below 50.
Note
(ETHUSDT 1D chart)As BTC appears to be slowing down after rising, ETH is showing signs of trying to lead the upward trend.
I think ETH's rise is likely to remain as long as BTC does not fall below 59370.07.
What matters is whether ETH can rise above 0.618 (3548.07) and remain there.
If you fail to do so, and you see resistance around 3434.57, there is a possibility of forming a high point, so you need to think about ways to respond to the decline.
An important support point for ETH is at 3321.30.
Note
It is impressive to see BTC and ETH taking turns trying to maintain an upward trend during this BTC halving.Note
When creating a trading strategy, the most important thing is the investment horizon.This is because detailed trading strategies vary depending on which coin (token) to invest in and for what period of time.
Since most coin markets are not yet used for actual business, special caution is required when investing.
Therefore, you must reduce your risk by identifying the themes that are expanding the coin ecosystem and trading the corresponding coins (tokens).
Currently, the only coins that allow long-term investment are BTC and ETH.
For all other altcoins, it is recommended to trade from a short-term perspective.
If you want to invest long-term in altcoins other than BTC or ETH, you must do so by increasing the number of coins (tokens) corresponding to profits.
In other words, when you buy and then sell when the price rises, you sell for an amount equivalent to the purchase principal.
In this case, the remaining coins (tokens) become coins (tokens) with an average purchase price of 0, so they can be held for the long term.
This is why you make a profit during a bull market, but eventually turn into a loss when the bull market ends and the decline begins.
If the price of an altcoin declines after an increase, it often falls to near the listing price, so it is necessary to somehow secure a profit by selling in a rising market.
If you buy and then do not sell, there is no profit or loss, that is, the profit or loss is 0.
However, you need to be careful because there are many cases where you are under the illusion that you are currently making a profit based on the profits shown in your transaction history, but this eventually turns into a loss.
The trading base chart is a 1D chart.
If you trade with a time frame chart lower than the 1D chart, there is a high possibility of being caught up in fakes or whipsaws and trading erratically.
Therefore, when trading with charts below the 1D chart, you must be aware of the trend of the 1D chart to avoid being caught up in fakes or whipsaws.
Also, you should never take your eyes off the trading charts.
If you can view the chart 2-3 times a day, you can trade with a 1D chart.
If you can see charts below that, you can trade by looking at the 1W and 1M charts.
However, since the period during which candles are created is long, it is necessary to lower the investment proportion.
Therefore, it is recommended to proceed with trading with the investment proportion in the order of 1D > 1W > 1M.
When trading on the 1D, 1W, and 1M charts, it is recommended that buying and selling be done 1-2 hours before a new candle is created, if possible.
This is because if you trade while a candle is being created, you may become psychologically unstable because you will be looking at the chart more.
Once a purchase is made, you must place a pre-order for the installment sale.
However, if you place a pre-order using the entire purchase amount, it will be disadvantageous to respond when rapid volatility occurs, so place a pre-order for approximately 50% of the purchase amount.
And when it's time to look at the chart, you can make detailed changes.
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