Long BTC to $25,600
Updated
Cognitive flexibility, required to shift one’s bias from bullish to bearish, long to short, and vice versa, based on market conditions, is extremely valuable as a trader. In previous publications, I mentioned that since the BTC price has been in a down trending environment for nearly 9 months we should assume that the current trading range (31 days and counting) is re-distribution unless the market conditions tell us otherwise. The BTC price is up 22% since the secondary test (ST) on July 13. Thus, the current market conditions tell us that we should consider whether the current trading range is re-accumulation instead of re-distribution.
If the current trading range is re-accumulation, then the secondary test (ST) on July 13 had a spring-like effect and the subsequent rally, which broke above the trading range upper bound, broke above the value area high (VAH, purple line) and, most likely, will close above the open of the significant sell bar (shaded pink) on June 16. This is bullish!
The 2 day, 4 day, and 8 day all look bullish. With regard to a long position, target 1 is $25,600 and target 2 is $29,959.
Wyckoff abbreviations: automatic rally (ARa), preliminary support (PS), selling climax (SC), secondary test (ST), failed upthrust (FUT), upthrust (UT), upthrust after distribution (UTAD), last point of support (LPS), selling climax (SC), shakeout (SO), sign of strength (SOS), sign of weakness (SOW), Phase A (Ph A), Phase B (Ph B), Phase C (Ph C), Phase D (Ph D), Phase E (Ph E).
This is not financial advice. I am not your financial advisor. This is my opinion.
If the current trading range is re-accumulation, then the secondary test (ST) on July 13 had a spring-like effect and the subsequent rally, which broke above the trading range upper bound, broke above the value area high (VAH, purple line) and, most likely, will close above the open of the significant sell bar (shaded pink) on June 16. This is bullish!
The 2 day, 4 day, and 8 day all look bullish. With regard to a long position, target 1 is $25,600 and target 2 is $29,959.
Wyckoff abbreviations: automatic rally (ARa), preliminary support (PS), selling climax (SC), secondary test (ST), failed upthrust (FUT), upthrust (UT), upthrust after distribution (UTAD), last point of support (LPS), selling climax (SC), shakeout (SO), sign of strength (SOS), sign of weakness (SOW), Phase A (Ph A), Phase B (Ph B), Phase C (Ph C), Phase D (Ph D), Phase E (Ph E).
This is not financial advice. I am not your financial advisor. This is my opinion.
Note
BTC in the 1 day, 2 day, 4 day, and 8 day time frames.Note
The same charts above but with the Bad Ass Bollinger Bands (BA BBs).Note
Chart showing BTC, NDQ, and DXY. There is a strong positive correlation between BTC and NDQ and a strong negative correlation between BTC and DXY as well as between NDQ and DXY. At the moment, BTC and NDQ are rallying and DXY is reacting.Trade closed manually
Trade closed at $24,998
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