BTC: Long-term Position
We see an asymmetrical triangle forming in the weekly, the grander upward force condensing between its sides. To follow a general rule of thumb, if the price bounces three times, it's set to blow. It makes sense if you pair this with the "Don't catch a falling knife" analogy since the knife will have stopped falling and be resting on the floor. Though we all want to catch bottoms, it's hard to tell when exactly this would occur. One way you could try to get at the next best price of the next market cycle is to refer to the stock-to-flow model on lookintobitcoin.com/charts/stock-to-flow-model/ where you will see a pattern, that after every new ATH, the local low of the market cycle is around where the price moves from light-blue to dark-blue (or when it's around 400-600 days until the next halving). Couple this with referring to the RSI in the weekly, then you can get a pretty good look as to where to buy and hold for the long-run.
But since we are too late for that, the next best thing is to go by the rule of three. There should be some bottom that forms, either at a parallel line or a line that can be part of a pattern (in this case, our asymmetrical triangle), where we can see the knife bouncing off of a floor. After the knife stops bouncing, people tend to pick it up and throw it upwards. There are fundamental reasons as well that offer a scenario regarding how this change in trend would play out. Considering that the BTC halving is now "news" that people can trade on, I'd suspect that smart investors will buy right now and then hold until days before the halving only to sell to retail investors who feel like they've caught onto something. In other words, they're "buying the rumor" and "selling the news." After this occurs, the price should fall onto the bottom side of our triangle, which should be the last time we'd see BTC around these prices again during this market cycle. After the third bounce, it could continue bouncing off the line or go parallel for a while, but regardless, it is after this point where the price generally follows an uptrend.
-LB
But since we are too late for that, the next best thing is to go by the rule of three. There should be some bottom that forms, either at a parallel line or a line that can be part of a pattern (in this case, our asymmetrical triangle), where we can see the knife bouncing off of a floor. After the knife stops bouncing, people tend to pick it up and throw it upwards. There are fundamental reasons as well that offer a scenario regarding how this change in trend would play out. Considering that the BTC halving is now "news" that people can trade on, I'd suspect that smart investors will buy right now and then hold until days before the halving only to sell to retail investors who feel like they've caught onto something. In other words, they're "buying the rumor" and "selling the news." After this occurs, the price should fall onto the bottom side of our triangle, which should be the last time we'd see BTC around these prices again during this market cycle. After the third bounce, it could continue bouncing off the line or go parallel for a while, but regardless, it is after this point where the price generally follows an uptrend.
-LB
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