btcusd / how a manipulation works
Updated
Now we have an opportunity to observe a real whale manipulation of btc price in action !
First of all I have to mention in my opinion manipulation is part of the market and nothing is wrong with this if no illegal practice carried out. Further to this, most manipulations are possible when there is uncertainty in a market that make it cheaper and possible to carry out a manipulating action.
To show this manipulation I compared btcusd price action of past few months with btcusdshorts of bitfinex chart of same period this chart shows number of btc shorted in the period.
Studying these two charts reveals four remarkable spikes in short positions in that period, as you can see last three spikes are really huge and in range of a billion dollar and seems abnormal.
The first spike (may 16-20) mostly can be attributed to normal price action and it started (short opened) when expected bearish structure broke down and on support, short was closed. But last three spikes (June 7-21, 25-26 and July 6-onward) are totally different, huge and follow another logic.
***If you study the chart you can see huge shorts are opened when there is no down pressure in price action, and shorts have been closed when price action shows downward pressure, this could imply that the spikes are designed to try to keep price in a range.
Probably the opening and closing of these last three shorts resulted to no substantial loss or gain; just by opening and closing a huge billion dollar shorts (up to 29000 btc) they postponed an event.
I am not sure what they follow but I guess it may be related to something like Grayscale btc fund (GBTC) sell lock times that one of its biggest ones (18000 btc) will be unlocked on July 18. You can research on the issue on tradingview or Google. But I think the manipulator’s bet is on long side of btc finally.
Please comment what you think.
First of all I have to mention in my opinion manipulation is part of the market and nothing is wrong with this if no illegal practice carried out. Further to this, most manipulations are possible when there is uncertainty in a market that make it cheaper and possible to carry out a manipulating action.
To show this manipulation I compared btcusd price action of past few months with btcusdshorts of bitfinex chart of same period this chart shows number of btc shorted in the period.
Studying these two charts reveals four remarkable spikes in short positions in that period, as you can see last three spikes are really huge and in range of a billion dollar and seems abnormal.
The first spike (may 16-20) mostly can be attributed to normal price action and it started (short opened) when expected bearish structure broke down and on support, short was closed. But last three spikes (June 7-21, 25-26 and July 6-onward) are totally different, huge and follow another logic.
***If you study the chart you can see huge shorts are opened when there is no down pressure in price action, and shorts have been closed when price action shows downward pressure, this could imply that the spikes are designed to try to keep price in a range.
Probably the opening and closing of these last three shorts resulted to no substantial loss or gain; just by opening and closing a huge billion dollar shorts (up to 29000 btc) they postponed an event.
I am not sure what they follow but I guess it may be related to something like Grayscale btc fund (GBTC) sell lock times that one of its biggest ones (18000 btc) will be unlocked on July 18. You can research on the issue on tradingview or Google. But I think the manipulator’s bet is on long side of btc finally.
Please comment what you think.
Note
It seems manipulation by btc huge shorts is near its end this time after rising btc price they stopped opening new shorts while smoothly closing previous shorts.Note
btc after a short squeeze smashed 37000 resistance decisively, this time with no intervention from manipulator whale ,as it is clear in chart, whom a day before the squeeze they had been closed all their open shorts.
My take from this process:
precondition: if you believe initially that this bull run cycle is not over.
-manipulation generally is possible when there is uncertainty in the market
-in this current process, these three huge shorts spikes (30000 btc) applied to keep the price in a lower price range and for some time.
-My guess is it is not possible any time and for any duration to continue the intervention as it may fire back if considering market drivers (fundamental, sentimental and technical aspects).
-By the way whales and manipulations are all part of the market and are Normal.
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