Leap of Faith BTC! To $12.8k!
Updated
I will post my idea with indicators overlay this time to show the bottom is supported. This bottom is also confirmed by other TA patterns, although I am mainly using FIB and Elliot Waves here. Wave counts are not 100% accurate if you read history wrongly, that is why i also use indicators heavily to support my wave structure. This bounce here off the $9775 is the bottom of my wave 3 but without extension. Could it extend? Most certainty, extension of EW are always a problem whether in bull/bear situation and hard to predict ahead of time. Market sentiment dictates the extension, and that is something that no TA can support. TA is a form of confidence that the market rely on and when it breaks, the market panics and ppl claim TA are useless. But TA always come different variant and we only post one version of it.
Nonetheless, what I wanna show here is the indicators. As you can see from the MACD, we have a lower low(price) but a higher bottom(indicator). That is a good sign of bullish divergence although very slightly, but a good sign in the market after such a big drop. This is also confirmed on the 1 min, 5 mins and 30 mins. Not sure why 15 mins shows bearish... likely a candle closing issue. MFI confirms that alot of new money flowing in to support this bottom as well, which you can also see from the order book where buyers are absorbing much of the panic selling. The RSI is also showing a bullish uptick, suggesting we are in the demand zone. Combining them all, this is a good sign to go long. But this long is also a bull trap in a longer time frame, because it is not a trend reversal bounce but a short term bullish cycle. 12.8k is around the target, +/- so you want to sell there or before that.
The upside news is that, if wave counts are wrong then what you see here at 10k is the bottom of a rocket to 20k and beyond. This however is an unrealistic expectation, especially on the 1D chart but nonetheless a possible variation. I recommend a long here only if you know how to exit when the market reverse on you. I only provide the analysis, you manage your own trade. Personally, I am waiting to short at the peak so I am not playing a long in this downtrend. But i know many traders out there are long only, and also people are wondering to sell or not sell. This bounce here could potentially be your last chance to sell high, exit with a tiny profit or minimize your losses.
Good luck and stay safe! Very big wall of text, yes. But I am in a good mood today after doing an accurate prediction, so I offer some free knowledge.
PS: Every time we go below 10k, there will be a big panic sell and buyers need to absorb all the selling, so that is something important to watch out for and also a problematic stop loss.
Nonetheless, what I wanna show here is the indicators. As you can see from the MACD, we have a lower low(price) but a higher bottom(indicator). That is a good sign of bullish divergence although very slightly, but a good sign in the market after such a big drop. This is also confirmed on the 1 min, 5 mins and 30 mins. Not sure why 15 mins shows bearish... likely a candle closing issue. MFI confirms that alot of new money flowing in to support this bottom as well, which you can also see from the order book where buyers are absorbing much of the panic selling. The RSI is also showing a bullish uptick, suggesting we are in the demand zone. Combining them all, this is a good sign to go long. But this long is also a bull trap in a longer time frame, because it is not a trend reversal bounce but a short term bullish cycle. 12.8k is around the target, +/- so you want to sell there or before that.
The upside news is that, if wave counts are wrong then what you see here at 10k is the bottom of a rocket to 20k and beyond. This however is an unrealistic expectation, especially on the 1D chart but nonetheless a possible variation. I recommend a long here only if you know how to exit when the market reverse on you. I only provide the analysis, you manage your own trade. Personally, I am waiting to short at the peak so I am not playing a long in this downtrend. But i know many traders out there are long only, and also people are wondering to sell or not sell. This bounce here could potentially be your last chance to sell high, exit with a tiny profit or minimize your losses.
Good luck and stay safe! Very big wall of text, yes. But I am in a good mood today after doing an accurate prediction, so I offer some free knowledge.
PS: Every time we go below 10k, there will be a big panic sell and buyers need to absorb all the selling, so that is something important to watch out for and also a problematic stop loss.
Note
Sexy MACD on the 1D chart. This bounce will bring us to around -100 points? Very good trap imo, and why I don't believe this is going to 20k and beyond from here. MACD will have plenty of room below for correction after this bounce.s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/snapshots/j/JroqwkyO.png
Note
Panic selling below 10k as expected. Buyers have to really keep up with the buying here to sustain this bottom, but technical are still bullish. Bullish until a fall to $9200, then it becomes a turning point.For now, I sneak a long in at $9412 trying to catch the bottom. Only loaded a small position with the intention to manage it.
Note
Managed to bring down to $9354, had a chance to go lower still but still good. Classic manipulation on Bitfinex, sell wall shifted to buy wall at $9250. Did a short squeeze then hidden buy wall appeared at $9600 to trap all the shorts. This will be an interesting ride up.
Note
Revising the 12.8k target to 12.5k. We are back to a battle at the 10k line but the break above $10150 was good bullish momentum. We should be good from here, but BTC futures is at $11160 so we are either going to go above or stay below for today.I'm going back to sleep, and will not be updating anymore.
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