BTC - Long Term with a Fork in the Road!
For the HODL investor.
I want to clarify this is a long term perspective and that does not mean next week. Every one of the three companies shown with btc' was huge in the advancement of technology, as is bitcoin.
So let's look at the charts but first I want to first explain market cycles. All market are cyclical. Whether it's gold', Oil', Apple', coffee, cotton, or soybeans. Markets cycle and bitcoin is not exception as we saw Sept 13th.
Cisco is probably the best chart I know of to compare to where I think Bitcoin will go in the next few years. Looking at the lower left of the cisco graph (boxed) is where I think we are in the bitcoin cycle. This was the first major cycle for cisco. Every dollar invested in 1991 was worth $1000+ in 2000. In comparing the first major market cycles between the two, bitcoin should be around $7000 when it hits 5.
Apple is the epitome of market cycles. They are very clear. Within every long cycle ( years) there are mid term cycles (months), within every midterm cycle there are short term cycles (weeks). Within every short term cycles there are daily cycles, hourly cycles, you get the point. Each 8 wave cycle is one wave in a larger cycle. These are called fractals. So if you see a TA put up a 15, 30, 60, 120 minute chart with "short bitcoin", they are not looking to short till next month, they located a setup that is intended to be traded in a very short term cycle (per the chart time) that may only last 10 minutes to a week or so, and hence the trade is intended for that time period ONLY. Note after cycles complete in the mid to long term, the stock always pulls back to the long term trend line. So what is a strategy for long term investors that are buy and hold.
1) The cost averaging strategy. You buy an allotted dollar amount every week regardless of price. You will sometimes buy high, sometimes buy low.
2) The buy the dip strategy. This is not market timing, this is buying the cycles. In other words you save your money until you see a pullback and you buy the break out up from the dip. For this method you must understand how market cycles work and you must have patience.
3) A mixture of the two.
So where do I see bitcoin going in the future. Well if I look at BTC' relative to the cisco move, it could well head north of $70,000 per coin. But it is not going straight up from here, though many think it will. It will take time, we will go through many cycles. I Guarantee that! So let's look at some quick fundamentals that can cause a pullback and provide an opportune for us to buy or hold for the moon.
Btcgold forks this month. I spoke with an early miner who is a code writer and crytpo genius. He said this will not be like bitcoin cash. Nothing like it. It's a small group of miners led by one man, that has one developer doing a split which is similar to an Ico. This will be most likely disappointing for many thinking it will be worth $500 or more. After this fork we have another fork, a more important split for the new segwit2x. Now from what I am told, this may be an issue. I'll let you read up on it, but what I was told was BCcash already resolved this issue, and again this may force merchants and miners to chose a chain, which may cause disruption in the markets. Either of these two could kill market sentiment, and I will be ready to buy.
Regardless once wall street regulates it for trading, it won't take long for the parabolic cisco run to happen. This is why you see guys like Jamie Dimon state "Sure it could go to 100k"!
Longterm it's a patience game. Wait for an opportune to buy cheaper. It will happen. That does not mean tomorrow or next week, it is just how markets cycle period! The upper chart is why you use log charts and I should have for all of these. Note thought the 2nd wave looks larger, in percentage terms it's 50% of the first wave. The 3rd wave though much longer than the first but its only 25% more than the first. It's not price movement it's percentage movement.
I want to clarify this is a long term perspective and that does not mean next week. Every one of the three companies shown with btc' was huge in the advancement of technology, as is bitcoin.
So let's look at the charts but first I want to first explain market cycles. All market are cyclical. Whether it's gold', Oil', Apple', coffee, cotton, or soybeans. Markets cycle and bitcoin is not exception as we saw Sept 13th.
Cisco is probably the best chart I know of to compare to where I think Bitcoin will go in the next few years. Looking at the lower left of the cisco graph (boxed) is where I think we are in the bitcoin cycle. This was the first major cycle for cisco. Every dollar invested in 1991 was worth $1000+ in 2000. In comparing the first major market cycles between the two, bitcoin should be around $7000 when it hits 5.
Apple is the epitome of market cycles. They are very clear. Within every long cycle ( years) there are mid term cycles (months), within every midterm cycle there are short term cycles (weeks). Within every short term cycles there are daily cycles, hourly cycles, you get the point. Each 8 wave cycle is one wave in a larger cycle. These are called fractals. So if you see a TA put up a 15, 30, 60, 120 minute chart with "short bitcoin", they are not looking to short till next month, they located a setup that is intended to be traded in a very short term cycle (per the chart time) that may only last 10 minutes to a week or so, and hence the trade is intended for that time period ONLY. Note after cycles complete in the mid to long term, the stock always pulls back to the long term trend line. So what is a strategy for long term investors that are buy and hold.
1) The cost averaging strategy. You buy an allotted dollar amount every week regardless of price. You will sometimes buy high, sometimes buy low.
2) The buy the dip strategy. This is not market timing, this is buying the cycles. In other words you save your money until you see a pullback and you buy the break out up from the dip. For this method you must understand how market cycles work and you must have patience.
3) A mixture of the two.
So where do I see bitcoin going in the future. Well if I look at BTC' relative to the cisco move, it could well head north of $70,000 per coin. But it is not going straight up from here, though many think it will. It will take time, we will go through many cycles. I Guarantee that! So let's look at some quick fundamentals that can cause a pullback and provide an opportune for us to buy or hold for the moon.
Btcgold forks this month. I spoke with an early miner who is a code writer and crytpo genius. He said this will not be like bitcoin cash. Nothing like it. It's a small group of miners led by one man, that has one developer doing a split which is similar to an Ico. This will be most likely disappointing for many thinking it will be worth $500 or more. After this fork we have another fork, a more important split for the new segwit2x. Now from what I am told, this may be an issue. I'll let you read up on it, but what I was told was BCcash already resolved this issue, and again this may force merchants and miners to chose a chain, which may cause disruption in the markets. Either of these two could kill market sentiment, and I will be ready to buy.
Regardless once wall street regulates it for trading, it won't take long for the parabolic cisco run to happen. This is why you see guys like Jamie Dimon state "Sure it could go to 100k"!
Longterm it's a patience game. Wait for an opportune to buy cheaper. It will happen. That does not mean tomorrow or next week, it is just how markets cycle period! The upper chart is why you use log charts and I should have for all of these. Note thought the 2nd wave looks larger, in percentage terms it's 50% of the first wave. The 3rd wave though much longer than the first but its only 25% more than the first. It's not price movement it's percentage movement.
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