Long

Great buying opportunity approaching on Bitcoin (BTCUSD)

Updated

Bitcoin made a huge drop today but is it time to panic yet?
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is showing there is extreme fear in the market, which is typically a good time for the smart money to look for a buying opportunity.

Looking at the charts we can see a several areas of support converging on the $6,700 range:

1.) The price has already touched and bounced off the bottom of the downward channel, which has yet to be broken during this downtrend.
2.) On the weekly chart, there is structural support ranging from 6.1k to 6.7k.
The 0.786 fib retracement from the ATH down to the 3k bottom is also right around $6,700 (another popular buying area for smart money)
Additionally, the volume profile tool shows a high level of trading activity at this range.

3.) On the monthly chart, there is a diagonal support line stretching from late 2015 to present time, and the last time price reached this line, the huge bull run of early 2019 followed.

4.) From a fundamental standpoint, this zone is also the Miners bottom range as highlighted by trader filbfilb, who perfectly called the last miner’s bottom around the 3k range.
See here:

5.) Let's also not forget about the bitcoin halving bubbles, with the next one approaching in May 2020

I feel very confident with this idea playing out and I am scaling in my buy orders into this price range.
I am not expecting this to play out quickly, and it would actually be better to see a period of consolidation in this range before moving up rather than the fast spike up we just saw last month.

I hope this idea was useful for you, if so please give it a like and follow to see how this plays out over the next few months.

Thanks!

Note

Talk about perfect, right?

Wicked down exactly down to the diagonal resistance (blue trend line), and formed a double bottom on 4hr right at the 0.786 fib (dotted black line), to create this big move we saw this morning. The volume looks very promising as well, as we can see bulls are already fighting this zone very well.
With that said, we are not out of the woods yet. First of all there is some strong resistance at $7,200-$7,300. Also, when we switch over to the daily time frame, we can see there is really no structure yet.

This is where patience is so crucial, and not try to chase this trade. Let’s see what happens over this week and allow a structure to develop. If the weekly closes in the green, I’ll consider opening up a trade at the start of next week, but for now just sit back and wait. Remember this trade idea is a longer term trade and we only want to enter when it looks like we should have swing trade that we can ride for a while.

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Got some nice moves up on Bitcoin the past few days after the inverse head & shoulders played out. I did enter a long at the drop down to $6,900 and have been remaining in that position, however I plan to close out at this blue line where there is resistance. It also appears that we have a rising wedge in formation here, so I think we will see a drop after it hits that heavy resistance around $8,100. The bigger plan above is still in play of course, but I think that we should see price come back down towards that major support in the coming days.

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So price broke down from that rising wedge I pointed out a few days ago, and this happened just as price hit the top of the major descending trend line. Now I expect price to continue to fall until it gets into the buy zone (see chart). This zone is where I will close out short and look to open a long order.

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Starting to look like a descending triangle in play here. Should break down from here, still looking to close short in the buy zone below and open a long if conditions are right.

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Stop loss was moved down last night after the triangle broke down, and it just got hit on that move up so I at least captured some profits on the short. Price just ran into the bigger descending trend line (see last update) and is so far holding price back. This pump has the characteristics of a short squeeze, so I don't want to take too much away from this move just yet. I want to see how price reacts before entering a long position.

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Just as I suspected, nothing more than a short squeeze this morning. Price coming back down, plan remains the same for where I am looking to go long (see above)

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Bulls are showing some strength, but they have to break that descending trend line otherwise we go back down towards support zone. There's also really no volume on this second move up (aside from yesterday's short squeeze) So, still just a wait and see game for now.

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Got the initial break of that descending trend line, but still low volume and no follow through yet. Obviously, we would like to see this daily candle close outside of the trend line. If bulls can manage to keep this going, we should have a big weekend ahead of us

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Click Play above. Price just bounced from the bottom of descending channel. Price has also now reached the buy zone. It it time to start accumulating buys! Do not over-leverage as there will most likely be a lot of wicking and manipulation over the next few weeks which will require wide stops on your orders. Good luck and I wish everyone lots of profits for 2020

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For those who missed the pump this morning, hopefully we get a retrace and another opportunity to buy or add to positions. Here is where I am looking to buy

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So the move up went further than I expected, but as soon as it reached the diagonal resistance trend line and the 200MA on 4hr, it immediately came back down. There is some solid support at $7,050 so we could see a continued move up from that level.
However the bulls are not showing much conviction right now and they could be waiting to get back in at better prices. And if that $7,050 level breaks, the next support area should be aroud the 6,800 range. I will wait to see how price reacts there before adding to my long position.

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In about 12 more days the monthly candle will close. It's good to see a nice bounce and reaction off this monthly trend line so far, but it's gotta hold up for us to feel confident about a bullish 2020.

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Looking quite bullish on the 3d time frame. Even though price had fake breakout below the monthly blue trend line (see above for monthly chart), it seems it is still holding price up for now. There is also a massive bullish divergence developing on MACD, as well as an impending bullish crossover. If bulls are able to take control over the next few days, we should see a big move back up to the top of the channel, to around 8.3k.

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Got the bullish crossover on MACD and it's beginning to look like an inverted head & shoulders formation on the 3D time frame.

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New idea that summarizes most of the things I pointed out here:

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This idea worked out perfectly! Now click play, price is right around the top of the channel. Technically it already broke out but I'd like to see a daily close outside of the channel and maybe a retest of the channel too. For now I'll let my longs ride. Thanks to everyone who supports me and please leave a like if you found this useful!

tommyf1001

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