Short

short-run decrease - long-term increase

Updated

BTC is likely to decline over the next 12 months. However, after an estimate 2022-09-11 date, it is very likely to being increasing based off off the extended long-run historical data and trend.

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BTC is currently in the decline

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BTC & TOTAL Market Cap may double from 2021-10-31 to 2022-02-31

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BTC may remain around 63.6k within 33 days; based off of the: 30m view; EMA ribbon.

BTC 63.6k within 33 days: 30m view; EMA ribbon

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BTC 103k by 2022-01-24 on the 3h view

BTC may see 103k by 2022-01-24. This is the 3h view; followed by a short decrease period (around 2022-02-15 or 2022-03-27 or 2022-04-20) of up to 19% after peaking.

Today is March 26, 2021 on the November 20, 2021 trend (see next two charts below).

On the chart below, BTC is measured in USDT & the "ZEC+ZEN+TRX+ETC" is measured in BTC.

2020-12-28 to 2021-12-23; View: "D". TOTAL (1,2,4) + BTCUSD + ETHUSD + ETHBTC

2020-12-28 to 2022-01-01; View: "D".
TOTAL (1,2,4) + BTCUSD + ETHUSD + ETHBTC + ETCBTC + TRXBTC + ZECBTC + ZENBTC + XLMBTC + JSTBTC + XEMBTC

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TOTAL & T5YIE (2020-01 to 2022-01)

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This may be a perfect forecast of BTC 3-hour (2021-05 to 2022-02) 103k by 2022-02-02.

perfect BTC 3-hour (2021-05 to 2022-02) 103k by 2022-02-02

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Deflation slowing BTC purchases (NOV 8th (weekly data) ); leading to a decline in BTC prices.

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BTC log 4-hour view 2021-12-15 to 2022-03-15; increase to 76k to 86k around 2022-03-15, then decrease during late March, April, & May 2022 to around 43k to 53k.

BTC log view increase to $76k 2022-3, decrease to $43k 2022-5

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This is a more conservative & much slower rate of increase BTC 2022 Q1, log view, daily, forecast.
2022 Q1 BTCUSD Forecast, log view, daily. 2022-01-13; 56k 2022-01-16; 53k 2022-01-24; 66k 2022-02-16; 69k 2022-03-03; 53k 2022-04-04

$46k 01-13; $56k 01-16; $53k 01-24; $66k 02-16; $69k 03-03; $53

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BTCUSD monthly average: 2022-01 $52666 & 2022-02 $51555

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2022-08 chart still on target

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BTC possible longer bottom (ending DEC 2022) & 2023 increase

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This forecast was created 6 months 'prior' to the WW3 or WW4 situation (or however one would like to reference & title it). So it's possible that things might shift differently than if there were no wars at all. However, I'm going to keep the same forecast for the current time.

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It is very possible that the longer flatter bottom can be extended until 2023-03-22. The unlikely and very latest that the bottom may occur is estimated [by day0 prediction analysis] to be 2023-09-19. However, it's never a good idea to "wait until the last minute" either. Between 2022-11-11 and 2023-09-09, it is also possible that here may be a "flash crash" that dips neat 9.8k; however it would be a very short duration to confirm the ultra lowest point possible for this halving cycle; meaning war or climate or viruses may cause a temporarily generated flash bottom like there was in 2020-03 (depending on what expected challenges and variables occur over the next 12 months).

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As WW3 escalates (as expected by most analysts), 2023 may experience a "longer flatter bottom" as well with a possible flash crash bottom before 2023-10. If WW3 did not escalate as much, then this forecast would be more precise for 2022 and 2023. However, this forecast clearly hints to an increase in 2023, but does not say which quarter of 2023. This was intentional with the "known uncertainty" for the Q1 2023 start of the next official recession.

So if the official announcement of the recession is announced on 2023-01-06 then, BTC will fall from 2023-01 to 2023-03.

The very latest that day0 predictive analysis is forecasting the TOTAL & BTC very bottom is near or during 2023-09. However, this is without WW3 escalating too far into the interconnected blockchain markets; in terms of market price.

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Reminder: Diesel fuel expect to run out on 2022-11-19 in US & Europe. Perhaps, this shortage maybe felt [empty] at the diesel pumps around 2022-12-12. Check news & energy departments for updates.

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2023 Q1 & Q2 bear. Q3 (flat) & Q4 slightly bull. mostly as recession risks increase along with WW3/WW4 activities.

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Still on a relatively flat, then downward trend:

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BTC may find bottom by 2023-06-06, after there is more historical data available.

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BTC may find bottom by 2023-06-06 (daily) (2022-01 to 2024-01):

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BTC repeating trend of 2022-07 & 2022-08 (possible double bottom or "longer flatter bottom", before the steady rise to the estimated peak of 2025-01):

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BTC may stop declining before 2023-12.
BTC weekly 2022-03 to 2023-08
BTC weekly chart from 2022-03 to 2023-08 reflects a $36666.66 to $15666.66 zone for 2023-04 (see green dashed-line). However, the strongest resistance zones, based off of today's historical data (on 2023-02-28), reflect a $32666.66 to $15666.66 zone for 2023-08-28 (see pink dashed-line).

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News: "Economist Harry Dent Expects Biggest Crash in Our Lifetime"
" Bitcoin may go down more like 95%, 96%. Dent expects the crypto market may crash alongside stocks, with BTC falling up to 95%-96% from its November 2021 high. "

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2021-08 forecast is still in play

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There is a very high probability that BTC will decrease significantly from 2023-8-15 to 2024-01-15. Especially in 2023-12. recession prediction = 2024-01

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recession prediction = 2024-01

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Recession Update:

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(click chart to play)
1W 2022-12 to 2024-02:

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(click to play)

🅱️ Still Bearish (Part 2) | Name Your Altcoin

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(click to play)

🅱️ 5X Lev Bitcoin SHORT (194% Potential | Adults Only)

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"Major Crypto Market-Wide Correction | Run For Your Life!"

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So yes is still increasing at the time of this posting. However, the point is: watch very closely for any possible natural corrections around 2024-02:

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bottom should complete in the next 9.99 to 19.99 days (66.6 days before halving based off of past data). unless: there is a black swan effect from the 2024 spring offensive. also, using my idea "The hunt for BTC bottom" idea (aka magik box) with the Jan 3 update pattern; the increase should occur in the next 15 days as well.

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4h may reach bottom between 2024-02-01 and 2024-02-11:
(click to play)

BTC 4h may reach bottom between 2024-02-01 and 2024-02-11

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still in play from 2021

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$150000 to $250000 in 2025 is still very possible

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There are a lot of people who were putting too much money into cryptocurrencies and treating them like checking accounts instead of long-term investments, similar to certificates of deposit or traditional bonds (excluding ETF bonds). As a result, many people have no disposable income, and the middle class is facing financial strain. This, combined with businesses experiencing a drop in revenue due to decreased middle-class consumption, is leading to a slowdown in the Bitcoin (BTC) market.

BTC is expected to remain in the shake-out for up to 46 more days on or before 2024-08-08). The the rise as early as 2024-07, but more likely during 2024-08 to 2025 peak.

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A Perfect Storm for Share Prices

August 2024 marks a turning point. Short-term holders will face a steeper climb to reacquire shares as corporations enter an overconsumption phase. This phase begins to ensure on-time delivery for the holiday season.

Here's why:

Production Lead Time: Companies need to finalize purchases by August 8th to allow factories 30-60 days for production, plus another 30-60 days for ocean freight (potentially extended due to container shortages). This creates a window of up to 120 days leading up to December 12th.
Consumer Demand: Consumers will likely feel the strain 30 days after August 8th, as companies ramp up production to meet holiday demand. This means higher expenses in August, followed by a need to save in September to prepare for increased spending in October and November.

Investor Opportunity:

This extended lead time creates a window for investors. Share prices are likely to see a gradual increase throughout August-November, with a potential surge in December as the window for accumulation closes. This could lead to a significant price jump in January, setting the stage for a peak in 2025.

day0

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