$2.5k BTC? Dangerous Trap
Updated
To the market, it looks like we have indeed completed the ABC correction, with C wave ending at 6k along with a double bottom on the 15 mins. The new uptrend 12345 should then make a small inverse head & shoulder pattern, signalling an end to the downtrend. This is what I believe the market is buying into, and I think they are being misled.
The inverse head & shoulder seems legit per wave counts but imo, it did not form the right shoulder correctly. Also there is a rising wedge in its place, which is strange. If not mistaken, this is likely a false pattern. Maybe the previous C wave was incomplete or maybe the market fundamentals are not good enough to start a wave 5, its unclear. Will need more price info to figure out where the wave count went wrong. My opinion is that we are still going down, and this is based on the long term indicators. The volume so far is also pretty telling that the market is not ready to recover, and pretty low for a 3rd wave.
I would advise caution on a long term swing/investment here. We may have 1 more try to touch $9200 and complete the wedge but based on the current structure... unlikely. Market seems exhausted. Once $8,000 breaks the structure for the uptrend will break and the market will be seeking to test $6,000 or lower. (Expect a lot of panic selling and liquidation for those who bought heavily in this reversal trap) For the long term, I am considering if BTC can fall to $2,500. If you laughed at me before, you might want to rethink. Never be bias and always keep an open mind when trading or investing.
Disclaimer: I have a short open from $8950.
PS: Still wondering if ppl will donate for TA insights or if they will attribute all wins to their own decision. Its optional, I'm just curious thus I have a tip jar.
BTC: 16VhzB59twANDvinuWzGJqdNWor9b9Uym2
LTC: LgegoiHGwN8UmoobmSn69nrDU3fvjTuudp
ETH: 0xA21844A23d6C18384101E67313C1260449F5cbf2
The inverse head & shoulder seems legit per wave counts but imo, it did not form the right shoulder correctly. Also there is a rising wedge in its place, which is strange. If not mistaken, this is likely a false pattern. Maybe the previous C wave was incomplete or maybe the market fundamentals are not good enough to start a wave 5, its unclear. Will need more price info to figure out where the wave count went wrong. My opinion is that we are still going down, and this is based on the long term indicators. The volume so far is also pretty telling that the market is not ready to recover, and pretty low for a 3rd wave.
I would advise caution on a long term swing/investment here. We may have 1 more try to touch $9200 and complete the wedge but based on the current structure... unlikely. Market seems exhausted. Once $8,000 breaks the structure for the uptrend will break and the market will be seeking to test $6,000 or lower. (Expect a lot of panic selling and liquidation for those who bought heavily in this reversal trap) For the long term, I am considering if BTC can fall to $2,500. If you laughed at me before, you might want to rethink. Never be bias and always keep an open mind when trading or investing.
Disclaimer: I have a short open from $8950.
PS: Still wondering if ppl will donate for TA insights or if they will attribute all wins to their own decision. Its optional, I'm just curious thus I have a tip jar.
BTC: 16VhzB59twANDvinuWzGJqdNWor9b9Uym2
LTC: LgegoiHGwN8UmoobmSn69nrDU3fvjTuudp
ETH: 0xA21844A23d6C18384101E67313C1260449F5cbf2
Note
Long term moving average on the daily. For the first time, I believe BTC will stay below the 200 EMA and we will see a big sell off when the death cross happen. Ultimately, what stays above must also stay below for an equivalent period.s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/snapshots/l/LTESeCyJ.png
Note
Testing the 8K now. In case you weren't aware, that was what the 3 red lines in the original chart was for.s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/snapshots/s/srqVH95u.png
Note
Ok, 8k broke and market sentiment has shifted according. Hope you guys benefited from this short trade. If you had actually checked my other idea, you might have even long from $6,000 and sold the peak at $9,000. Much wow. TA works!? This has been a pretty fun week and I will be taking time off trading to work on my book. Until the new bottom can be analyzed, we have officially enter uncharted territory. Some reversal expectation from the market is probably the following.
1) Bounce off 7.5k to attempt the formation of another right shoulder, likely a foolish attempt. Expect tons of liquidation on failure.
2) Bounce off $6,000 to attempt a another double bottom on the higher time frame. Might go sideways here for an extended period of time before it give way. But if it bounce hard, maybe... maybe we have the bottom.
3) My first potential bottom reversal is at $4,500 because we have to bounce at some point in the bear market anyway. And we will see how that goes.
Have fun, good luck and enjoy the rest of your weekend. This will be another long trip down.
Note
Some interesting findings. Margin long have yet to close out, plenty more downwards pressure to come if price continues to decline.s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/snapshots/o/OdBm98oC.png
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