The path of Bitcoin into 2022
Updated
Based on weekly indicators beginning to roll over, I believe that it is now confirmed that previously realized 
65K will end up being the top in 2021. Looking at historical patterns I believe that we can surmise the only path forward from here is further consolidation in the form of a bull flag. This would put the next lows in the low 20s or even in the teens as it looks to the 200 MA as it's ultimate support before its next climb to 100k+.
The price of Bitcoin has entered nearly 20 distinct bear markets over the past ten years and has been in a drawdown greater than twenty percent for nearly 80% of its history. At first, this may seem like a bearish statement, but it is not. The overall uptrend for the decade has been as bullish as an asset can get, but that does not mean it goes up in a straight line. I believe these drawdowns present excellent entry points.
Things to also consider.
The Fed has announced it will move up the tapering scheduling as soon as November 2021. The appetite for more fiscal stimulus is also waning as members of the president's own party are actively talking about blocking an infrastructure bill. Enhanced Federal unemployment benefits have expired and have not been extended. Barring some new catastrophic event, I personally do not believe that there is any reason to expect new liquidity injections. This means we continue to churn previous injections via a consolidation period.
Based on depth of the bull flag, I believe that we will either drift down to new lows or there will be a sharp correction in the coming months if not weeks. I will be looking for entry at the bottom of the channel. This could occur in late 2021 or early 2022. Historically, BTC tends to experience a rally around the holiday season ramping into New Years. Could history repeat? We will see.
65K will end up being the top in 2021. Looking at historical patterns I believe that we can surmise the only path forward from here is further consolidation in the form of a bull flag. This would put the next lows in the low 20s or even in the teens as it looks to the 200 MA as it's ultimate support before its next climb to 100k+.The price of Bitcoin has entered nearly 20 distinct bear markets over the past ten years and has been in a drawdown greater than twenty percent for nearly 80% of its history. At first, this may seem like a bearish statement, but it is not. The overall uptrend for the decade has been as bullish as an asset can get, but that does not mean it goes up in a straight line. I believe these drawdowns present excellent entry points.
Things to also consider.
The Fed has announced it will move up the tapering scheduling as soon as November 2021. The appetite for more fiscal stimulus is also waning as members of the president's own party are actively talking about blocking an infrastructure bill. Enhanced Federal unemployment benefits have expired and have not been extended. Barring some new catastrophic event, I personally do not believe that there is any reason to expect new liquidity injections. This means we continue to churn previous injections via a consolidation period.
Based on depth of the bull flag, I believe that we will either drift down to new lows or there will be a sharp correction in the coming months if not weeks. I will be looking for entry at the bottom of the channel. This could occur in late 2021 or early 2022. Historically, BTC tends to experience a rally around the holiday season ramping into New Years. Could history repeat? We will see.
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