In the Mar 2020 COVID crash, we had 3 distinct highs in a 259 days corrective phase 📉. Price crashed due to macro factors and seemingly broke bull market structure but it managed to find support at the 200W SMA.
A 399 days of expansion phase then began after
BTC bottomed and a V-shaped recovery followed 📈. The duration of the expansion phase is about 1.5x of the corrective phase until we see a top (arguably the cycle top).
Fast forward to the current crash. We also had 3 distinct highs in a 149 days corrective phase 📉. Price crashed due to macro factors and had seemingly broken the bull market structure. For now, it seems thatBTC had found some support at the 50W SMA.
If, and that is a big IF, we do get to see a V-shaped recovery, perhaps the expansion phase will once again be 1.5x the duration of the corrective phase and we might see the top coming in Q1 2025.
This is obviously highly speculative and I certainly won't bet on it. However, it is still an interesting prospect.
A 399 days of expansion phase then began after
BTC bottomed and a V-shaped recovery followed 📈. The duration of the expansion phase is about 1.5x of the corrective phase until we see a top (arguably the cycle top).Fast forward to the current crash. We also had 3 distinct highs in a 149 days corrective phase 📉. Price crashed due to macro factors and had seemingly broken the bull market structure. For now, it seems that
BTC had found some support at the 50W SMA.If, and that is a big IF, we do get to see a V-shaped recovery, perhaps the expansion phase will once again be 1.5x the duration of the corrective phase and we might see the top coming in Q1 2025.
This is obviously highly speculative and I certainly won't bet on it. However, it is still an interesting prospect.
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