Bitcoin and the 240 Bear flag!
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Expect the bear flag to continue with a possible head fake up to 7300. Volume should increase drastically and then the failed head fake will turn into momentum to finish the bear flag off and break the 6800 level to enter new lower lows. See the comments for identification of the bear flag. This is NOT financial advice, do your own research!
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We didn't even try to fake the bear flag by doing a break to the upside. We went sideways into a pole and the support is likely to be tested soon. See the comments below for an updated pic. Expecting 1 last bounce at 6800, rejection at 7000, and a big drop down to the next support area around the low 6000s.Trade active
We broke the pole to the downside as expected and now we will hook back to the support at 6800 which is now resistance before a push to the low 6000s around 6200 to get closer to making a new low! Trade active
Support has been broken!! We are heading down to the low 6000s where we should get some choppy action then we will be ready to make a new lower low down into the 5000's!Trade active
Looks like expected! Need a new level, then will reassess.Trade active
We are clearing the books from the last move on the left when it did a small ABC move around 6600, after 6500 breaks cleanly, we are good for the low 6000's completely.Trade active
Will update after the next level break. Always manage risk before seeking gains. The #1 rule of trading crypo is protect your crypto!!! If you aren't short already, use low leverage and wait for new levels to scale in safely. This is not financial advice and is intended for educational purposes.Trade active
Looking to see the level break and then a small pullback before the drop back down into the earlier pole between 6100 and 6300. We may move sideways there on a small bounce or push straight on through to 5800 if panic spreads enough in the market from this recent drop.Trade active
We may see a small bounce at 6300 before dropping back into the pole as well.Note
We broke the level, look for a drop to the pole between 6100-6300!Trade active
We're almost down into the pole area, if panic sets in we could move quickly towards the 6000 level, but based on the last action in the 6100-6300 area we are more likely to move sideways to let the MA's catch up and possibly start a sideways move to go down or a bear flag to go down from there. Will update when we get into the range.Trade active
We moved down into the pole as expected. When entering a pole from the top, its usually a move to go lower so look for some sideways movement here between 6100-6300 to clear the order books from the last time we moved sideways here on the way up. A small bounce and bull trap may appear before breaking down to the bottom area of the pole as there are a lot of orders left in the 5700-6400 area form the last "bottom." After that, we are looking for a break of 6100, a small retrace to test the new resistance at 6100 and then a move down to the 5700-5800 where the .619 and strong resistance are likely to be.
We may bounce a little there, although not as high as the previous bounce since we are making lower lows each time or we make just move sideways and slowly work our way down through that support. Once 5700 area goes, we are cleared for the super volatile last choppy bit of this 5th wave down to the .786 fib around 3500.
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Anyone reading this can learn how to do this if you spend the time and effort to do so! I've spend the last 9 months studying the market and learning from the group I linked in the comments below. Feel free to ask any questions and check out the FREE Facebook and Discord groups for more ino!!Trade active
We got the small bounce on the top of the pole around the 6300s. Now look for the volume to increase as we break down into the pole to test the bottom of it around 6100 and if we break that the psychological support of 6000 will be next before we move on down to the big fib support at 5700-5800!Trade active
Not bad for my first attempt after 9 months of study!!! Now you can see they followed the idea pretty well, let's see if we can either bounce and pickup volume for the drop into/through the pole or if the bulls just give up and let us on through!
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Momentum has begin to decrease and we are sitting in the top of the pole. We may be in for a short squeeze to correct some of the over-extension. There is a possibility of squaring up the high volume dump candle at 6500 or a check back in with the big support break at 6800 to suck in some longs and squeeze the over-leveraged shorts. It is recommended to keep any liquidation point above 6800 until we either bounce to hunt for liquidity needed to go lower or the bulls give up and let us break down further in the pole. This is a possible bounce move to hunt for liquidity given the dried up volume at the 6200-6300 level over the last 4 hours. If they do this type of move, it might look something like this:
Otherwise we will work deeper into the pole slowly until we can resume our downward momentum.
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2nd pic should have been:Possible move if we get a spoofy appearance without a bounce for liquidity.
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We are still stuck on the top of the pole. Waiting to see if we get the bounce for liquidity to break downward or if the bulls give up and we just drop to the next levels.Trade active
Looks like the pump is coming in, we could push as high as 6800 before we see the selling return and we can work on dropping further. The volume is increasing and we should see a point where the sellers begin dumping faster than the buyers can handle even with the momentum of the small push that is likely giving many bulls with confirmation bias false hope that we are turning here.Note
We got a small lift up the the 6400 area, but we have yet to see a real push supported by heavy volume and liquidity. This is not a place to enter a trade, this is a place to watch and wait for the market to show it's hand. Either we pop up to test the 6800 level (which could always break so be careful with this 5th wave volatility - no support or resistance is a guarantee) or we see the sellers return to push us back into the 6100-6300 pole. The most probably scenario is the push higher to test 6800. If we test it and reject as expected, we should see heavy volume and a push to go lower. If we break it, we could see fomo momentum to push to as high as 7200, but this is less likely. That is why this is a place to wait and watch the market do it's thing. Sometimes the hardest trade is the wait trade!!
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We finally broke into that critical 6600-6800 area!! The volume is starting to increase and now its do or die time for the next move. If we get a really strong rejection at the 6800 level, then it should give momentum to move lower finally. If we break it with momentum then look to the 7100-7200 area for the sellers to decide that it's time to resume moving lower. Get the popcorn and get ready!!!Note
Also - I like to make sure I don't try to jump in if it dipps just under 6600 or just over 6800, let the market confirm what it wants to do. Giving up a few % on an entry is far better than jumping in too soon! Just a tip for educational purposes. This is not financial advice!Trade active
CB has just froze up on BTCUSD trading...... be very careful, this could dump in our favor or it could pump while frozen. Still watching the 6800 level if we turn upwards, but right now we may be going down again to test the support around 6100-6300 if we get a large amount of FUD from CB. If they resume trading and nothing happens, we continue with the current analysis, but be on the lookout for some funky crypto wild wild west action with CB frozen...twitter.com/CoinbasePro/status/1027732342817751041
status.pro.coinbase.com/incidents/z1667c9t2wqy
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"CoinbasePro27 minutes ago
[status] Identified: We have identified the issue preventing trading on BTC-USD. We are working on resolving the issue as soon as possible."
We will see......
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Coinbase trading has resume and it seems traders who bought back around the 6556.25 area where the price action froze on the exchange for a 12 hour period are not happy about it. We have begun to move back towards our pole at 6100-6300 that was never broken. If the sentiment has gone sufficiently negative, we could finally see a drop through the pole and a break of the 6100 level. After that, some psychological support of 6000 is the only thing in the way between us and 5700-5800 .618 Fib support. A bounce in this area is highly possible and then a test of our pole from 6100-6300 should help us determine what steps to take next!Note
Coinbase trading has *resumed*Trade active
CORRECTION - We are sitting just at the top of the pole boundary. Looking closer it sits right at 6364. If we break this level with a decent amount of volume, the previous comment will be appropriate and no further updates will be made until the next level has been revealed. If this is a shakeout, we will see a return to the checking in at the 6800 support/resistance, but given the Coinbase debacle, I'm currently leaning towards the downward move.Note
BTC - Are you listening???!! Hah! We just broke the barrier and have entered into the pole! Next comes a test of 6100 area and if we break it, look to go lower. This may be a good spot for a short entry as close as possible to 3660 as long as the rejection holds. If it were me, I'd enter with 10x or less leverage to have a wide liquidation and then wait for the move to play out before adding or upping the leverage, but that's just me - I'm not your financial advisor and this is soley for educational purposes!!Note
This may be a good spot for a short entry as close as possible to **6360** as long as the rejection holds.My work cpu is laggy, apologies for the typos!
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We're still sitting on the top of the pole and moving sideways at the moment. Until we get a break down or a bounce up towards 6800 the safest trade is the wait trade. Once we get confirmation to the up or downside and a return of some heavier volume, I will post further updates. At this time, we still appear to he headed lower in the big picture, once we are done moving sideways and unless we break 6800 - this is still the most likely scenario.Trade active
We got the break to the downside past 6100!!!! Look for the bounce around 57-5800 if there will be any. This is a pretty massive selloff right now, so we may bust through that support and head even lower very quickly. If you are not in a position, it is extremely risky to enter one now!!Trade active
UPDATE: As I mentioned before, we are still likely to bounce to retrace this massive drop that confirms to me we are going to to take out the .618 fib at around 5770. If we correct before we test it, there is a strong chance we can break through it. If we go down without a good bounce, we may be too overextended to breakthrough and it will likely result in a bounce or sideways movement. I personally closed 1/2 of my position here. If you were following me from day 1, I closed half the position at 600% ROE. Now the other half can ride for free and I can hold onto the roughly 3x profit while we see if they give us a bounce to add more or if they go lower and give us more profit on the other half. If you want to learn how to trade like this, check out the links in the comments below! Hold onto your butts!!! WE'RE GOING DOWWWN (Most likely - nothing is ever guaranteed in markets and doubly so for BTC)
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I will post an updated chart in a few hours after we absorb this recent development :) Stay tuned!!Note
Yet another possible bear flag forming on the 1hr chart. Will post a chart in the next couple hours!Trade active
It hasn't been long since the last big drop sent us hurtling down to nearly test the psychological 6000 level before we pulled back to do some needed correction. It is still early to tell, but on the 1 hour chart I see a few possible moves right here.Option1: Since breaking that support level at the 6170 area after testing it several times (look at the circled areas), we have pulled back and are seeing some resistance now at that previous support. It may be that after this hook back we see another dump continue to test the next major fib support level around 5770.
Option 2: We may be painted yet another bear flag to move lower, although this will not be as evident until we have a few 4 hour candles to define the pattern with. It could move a bit higher to print the bear flag before we see a drop afterwards.
Option 3: We may break that resistance at the 6170 area in order to square up the red candle circled below. This would be a healthy pull back and a return to test the previous support around the 6360-6400 area which will likely now hold as a resistance. Look for a rejection at these levels and high volume which should provide liquidity for the next big drop to test the 5700 area mentioned previously.
With a great deal of significant downward movement in a short amount of time, it would be nice to see the pull back correction of either option 2 or 3, however with the uncertainty in the markets that only grows the lower we go, option 1 is still possible at this time. If we get a healthy pullback and rejection at the 6360-6400 area, this would be a nice place to open or add a small amount to your position. This is not financial advice, this is for educational purposes. If we push through 6400 it is possible we see another bounce similar to the previous bounce that peaked at the 8200 area, although I expect it to put in a lower low and stay within the current downward channel unless a significant event occurs which would change the market sentiment. Protect your crypto and your capital and don't forget to check the links below to find even more great information!!
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The way we don't seem to be going up - it may end up being option 1, but it is pretty early to tell yet. They could pop the next 4h or daily up after going sideways for awhile and not resume the drop until next week sometime. Will update in 8-10 hours when we get a few more candles. :) *Detailed info regarding BTC, ETH, and LTC in the link below from my mentors if anyone is interested.
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Right now, we are still stuck at the 6100 area resistance and so far option 1 seems to be playing out still. Looking to see if we can break above it at all today. Will update more soon if we get some movement. For clarification - I am trollno9 on the Bmex Trollbox ;)Trade active
Looks like BTC decided to choose what was behind Door #3 (option 3) haha. Now that we got a pop to the 6400 area, we have a nice spot to add a small bit or to enter with a small amount of leverage. This is not financial advice and is for educational purposes ;) Now that we got a nice bounce and the short squeeze rekt many over leveraged short traders I see two very likely possiblities from here. Either we continue to move up to test the strong resistance around the 6800 level, or we will move sideways for a bit and then try to drop again from here. If you take an entry or add to your short position, it would be wise to do so with only a small amount of leverage until we see this level develop as either a move to test 6800 or a sideways movement before the next drop. I would be happy to see this happen because it would show how strong the 6800 resistance is, give a healthly pull back, and provide a good entry/add to any short positions.It is entirely possible that we have a couple days of sideways movement to cool off the indicators and give bulls a chance to take the long side of the next leg down or that we smash the next leg down not that we have retraced. That might looks something like this...
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Now lets take a minute and re-examine the BIG picture at the moment because everyone is wondering where the bottom will be and when we can turn the ship around. Here is a Daily view where I colored the downtrend lines dark blue. You can see the circled areas where they faked out of the trend. Notice each time this occurs threre is MASSIVE buying or selling opposite the direction of the breakout. That's a little peek at the big boys playing the market like a fiddle that spits out BTC and USD. Now if you notice at the last ATH we spent pretty much the entire top of the trend outside the major trend we've established as we corrected from that ATH. If you see the white lines, you will see where we touched the trend and moved back 3 times on the top and 3 on the bottom (not counting the fake breakouts). It is entirely possible that we get a test of that .618 monthly fib around the 3500 area and that when we do we see volatility similar to the kind we saw on the ATH. In this possible scenario, we can see the beginnings of a MASSIVE inverse H&S pattern. If this were to happen we could have amazing buying opportunities on the dips as we return to a big timeframe bull trend and work our way back towards setting a new ATH. This could happen fast given the recent price action we've been seeing. It is not smart to try to pick the bottom IMHO. It is better to watch and see where it comes and then to start to long when the market shows us that the turn is in and we're headed back up in the big time frames. This is just one of many possibilities what will become clearer as we approach a true bottom for this massive 8-month so far correction that is very healthy for the long term outlook of BTC's price action. Always start with risk first and don't forget to scroll the comments to find the links to where I learned how to do this type of analysis. It takes hard work and studying, but anyone can do it given the right mindset and discipline. More updates to come when we make the next move! Note
We seem to be going back down to test the support now as you see in the second option from the previous update!! I added to my position at 6400. Here's a zoomed in view we need to break the last support area around 6000-6100 again so we can work towards the big timeframe 5700-5800 fib area that we were looking for about a week ago when I started charting this move. Watch for a small bounce or sideways move as we enter into 6000-6100, but with the hope fading for the recent bulls who jumped in, we may just move on through to lower lows.Note
Be aware that this is also a critical area for a possible inverse H&S if they decide to bounce for a move to square up back to the 6800 level that we were previously looking for, although this is less likely until we know more it is possible...Note
An Inverse H&S pattern here has no real significance in the context of this move, but many traders who know the pattern and not how to use it are likely to get over excited and jump in only to have it turn back around on them near the end when we continue the downward trend. At this point it is still entirely uncertain and it is a time to watch and wait to analyze for next possible moves.Trade active
We've moved sideways and a little up only to get smacked back down which shows that we are definitely in that 6100-6300 pole at the moment. The price action looks very similar to the last time we were in this area and it looks like the insignificant H&S pattern that may be setting up to trick a lot of newer traders is still entirely possible, but this is the type of setup that in the past has resulted in a fake out and then a move the opposite way. If you aren't in a position it would be extremely risky to try to enter one in this area. This is yet again another area where the next move out of the pole is critical, but until it happens we have no indication for sure which way we are going next. The big time frame downtrend is still fully in effect, but locally we could go either way from this area enough that anyone over leveraged is in a really tricky spot. Make sure you have a solid plan for what you intend to do in the event the price goes up or down out of this pole. We could see some really fast movement either way, so it's important to be ready with your plans. I left the H&S outline to show how they seem to be setting this up because so far the price action is following that idea so close it's a little freaky, but it very well could be a bull trap - so you had better be ready to accept responsibility for jumping in too soon without confirmation of which way we might be going. This is never financial advice and is always my attempt to share what I've learned for educational purposes.
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I accidentally put this in the comments while updating from a mobile device hah:With pressure building on both sides of the trade here, we've formed a small triangle pattern on the 1 hour chart. This pattern could provide a strong breakout to the top or bottom, but until we have some confirmation of which way, there's no indication yet to hint to us other than we know that we're in a big picture down trend. A breakout to the top would provide a square up and a chance to suck in more money for the next big drop, but a breakout to the downside would likely lead to a heavy sell of and a chance at new lows. As ironic as it is, much of trading is waiting for the right moment to strike and not actually clicking the buy or sell button while you do. Stay safe out there and don't over-leverage!! This is not financial advice ;)
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You didn't think this would be easy did you?! They just faked out traders to the UP AND DOWN sides and if anyone was over leveraged they just got wrecked. Look at these wicks on both sides of the triangle pattern!! This is why you wait for confirmation and you never take a trade on one candle. We are still waiting to see what happens next and it make get crazier before we can start to see movement we can plan around, so stay safe and start with risk first always. I added to my position as I had sells open just past 6400 that were picked up. Liquidation still above 7k with a stop loss just around 8650 in case the 8600 resistance fails. This is not financial advice! :)
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We have posted a couple 1hr candles above the triangle, which suggests we may go higher, but we are getting squeezed at the 3660 resistance area that we've been at before. Will we break up so we can test the higher resistances yet? Only more time will tell..... We still need some clear signals to determine if we go higher to test the 6400-6800 area before the next drop or if we get rejected here and go test the support levels sooner. Trade active
We are still hanging around in no mans land, the move above the triangle didn't have much steam beyond that crazy wick action, so we are sill waiting to see if we get a strong move in either direction to test the nearest supports/resistances and give some indication as to what may be coming.Trade active
Finally a retracement! There was a small rejection around 6650, but we are watching to see a rejection at 6600 and/or 6800 depending on the strength of this local run. 6600-6800 is a spot where I am looking to add if we get a strong rejection in this area, but it is still risky until after we test the resistance and get rejection. This is not financial advice!Note
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A rejection at 6600 would certainly look like an attempt to draw the earlier discussed trick of an inverse h&s where it doens't make a lot of sense except to create one more weaker lower bounce than the last one to 8200.Trade active
We didn't quite get to 6600, but the wick to 6540 area may be all the bulls have left for now. We have dropped back into the 6100-6300 pole area which seems to suggest we are getting ready to test the lower supports again. It is still possible to get a bounce out of nowhere or off the bottom supports to check back in at 6600-6800 so until we get a clear break to the downside or we are able to test that 6600-6800 resistance area, we are still moving sideways in no mans land, even with the last few hours of selling pressure. Sometimes the hardest part of trading is waiting for the next move and watching candles that trigger an emotional response in your brain, but not pushing the button until the price is in an area that fits with your plans. This is not financial advice and is only for educational purposes.Trade active
It is entirely possible that BTC may be getting ready to dive to test the previous lows, but If we get a bounce soon, we may be doing an ABC counter-trend move to go check in with the previous resistances. An ABC bounce to test the supports might look something like this:At this point, it is too early to tell whether this is what we are going to get or not, but I have some sells ready to add to my position on the books in the 6600-6800 range, with my liquidation still above 7k to be safe. Good luck to all the traders out there!
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If we don't make move upwards, look for the test of support around the 6050-6100 area near the bottom of the pole. That might look something like this:Both possibilities are entirely possible at this point, so it is not recommended to enter here unless you know how to use leverage to appropriately manage you risk and scale into your position.
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So far they are following the second possibility pretty closely, but that doesn't mean we're out of the woods yet. If we get a strong rejecion a the 6350 area, which was the top of this pole, we may be in for a strong test of the 6050 area support that we bounced off of about two days ago. Here's an updated view with the drawing untouched. They certainly WANT us to think this is the way we're going, but it would not be crazy to see them fake a break to the upside past 6350 to get smacked down in the upper 6400s where we just came back down from. This is going to get trickier the deeper we go and no professional trader can pick a bottom with perfect accuracy, so risk management must be the foundation of all trades down here.
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***NOTE - WRONG IMAGE ABOVE****Apologies, that was the old picture from possibility 1, here is the updated view from possibility 2....
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The market is beginning to show signs that we are nearing an important move in the big time frames. The volatility has increased and we are seeing a great deal of extending wicks across the board. In times like these, it's important to zoom out and get a big picture handle on where we might be going. Hopefully you have a short that is leveraged appropriately so that your liquidity is somewhere back above the 6600 or better yet the 6800 resistances. There is an increased chance of runaway candles and wicks that may run up or down by a great deal within single candles. When we zoom out we can see a very steep downtrend on the daily candle chart.At this point it is looking more like we may be squeezed between the support lever around 6050 and the descending trendline to form a descending triangle pattern. "The descending triangle is a bearish formation that usually forms during a downtrend as a continuation pattern." - found on stockcharts.com
Be very cautious about overextending leverage or opening trades at this point. It may be a potential entry for the drop, but one would need a great deal of room to liquidation to prevent getting burned from volatility. This is not financial advice and is intended solely for educational purposes.
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Given that most of the alts show no signs of stopping the bloodbath and LTC and ETH are continuing their descents, it is reasonable to assume that as BTC edges lower people who have dumped alt coins for BTC are just trying to absorb the losses and are not confident in the present state of the market. As BTC prices drop, those who have seen losses in BTC value are now realizing that the losses are being magnified by the decrease of BTC's fiat value. We may seen flash crashing and panic selloffs soon. If you are entering here short, it would be wise to use low leverage until we reach lower levels. That being said, we could still get crazy short squeeze candles from nowhere as the volatility is increasing rapidly as the market dives further. The next major support for BTC is the fib area around 5700 where we have seen two previous big time frame rejections, but if the market is in panic we may finally break through this level and start the create a bottom to the 8 months of downtrend we've seen in 2018. It would be wise to sit on the sidelines and learn if you are a newer trader and as always this is not financial advice!I will update again on the next major market move which I expect to be downward. There may be significant wicks to the upside during this process. Stay safe and always start with risk first then think about potential rewards after.
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We are starting the violent drop. Still potential for huge bounces on low points of liquidity with high volume. BE CAREFUL!!Trade active
We tested below the supports area at 6050, but we haven't broken the big timeframe fib levels at the 5700 area. Now it appears a bear flag may be forming on the 1 hr and 4 hr time frames. If this is the case, well, we all saw how the first bear flag that on the chart when when I stared this charting page. Now that we have squared up yesterday's drop with a nice, but low volume, retracement - I see it as highly likely that we will drop and break the 5700 support levels next using the current pattern that appears to be forming a bear flag. Until we have some more candles, this is not certain although it is a very high possibility given market sentiment today. The alts have tanked and many people are hurting from the losses. If we break that 5700 I still expect to see some capitulation and heavy selling. As always, be safe and use low leverage or small adds if you are entering or adding here. It is best to do so on the top areas of the pullback, so near the 6100-6200 area is best at present unless we break the previous support at the 6160 area that is now providing resistance. Will update with a chart tonight. This is not financial advice!Trade active
It looks like we may have formed a small bear flag and we may have just broken in. If we get a strong rejection from here or anywhere under 6050 USD, it could mean a break to the downside with a big red candle to test the lower level support. I expect at least a small bounce at the 5700 area, but we already bounced just above there once so it is possible we go under the 5700 area and it becomes a new level of resistance. Only more time will tell, but to many people screaming this is the bottom - I am sorry you took losses, but it appears that we have further down to go before this is over!Trade active
The bear flag seems to be a possibility to watch. We broke underneath the original pattern, but now we seem to be continuing the pattern just outside the fist line I drew, which could mean either the pattern is still going and we need to adjust the lines or there may be something different coming soon. A potential short squeeze is always a threat, so be cautious and continue to wait for the next big move to decide how to proceed.Note
Be on the lookout for a fast drop below 6k that does not slow down and where the volume increases into the drop. That would be a strong sign that we are going to form the rest of the bear flag downward pole to the 5700 support area. If we break that area, nobody who bought after early DEC will be in profit anymore. It will also be a strong sign to the market that we are going lower before we go higher and I would expect to see a lot of panic selling with possible capitulation in the coming days and/or weeks.Note
Wondering what's going on with the market at large and where BTC could go next? Here's a nice video just posted today that's packed full of good info!youtu.be/E-yPLDbRSyY
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I strongly recommend watching the video, they explain these moves much better than I do and it gives you a clear idea of what might be coming very, very soon. The great reset of 2018!Trade closed: stop reached
My take profit stop-limit was reached around the low 6300s area. Considering the number of shorts has been increasing rapidly, the threat of a short squeeze has been growing. It appears we have retraced the most recent drop and we may be looking at a short squeeze that may cause a lot of damage. This is the kind of volatility we can expect for awhile until we get a clear bottom and reversal on the big time frames. Remember the previous supports that should now provide resistance. The 6600 and big fib 6780 levels that we were looking to retrace to two days ago are areas of particular interest now that we seem to be headed back to test the resistances. A strong rejection could result in a return to downward momentum, however a breakout past the 6800 level would likely result in a great deal of fomo buying. During any turn of the market, you can expect a great deal of volatility and rapid price swings in both directions. If you are unsure of how to trade this type of price action, it may be time to watch and study the behavior of the market until you have clearer signals to plan trades with.
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