BitcoinLong
Is BTC in a pendulum swing this whole time?
Updated
I saw this chart layout on a twitter image somewhere, I don't remember who made it so I don't know who to give credit to. I just want to duplicate it as best as I can and add my input to it.
(A note: from hereon, please understand that it will take a lot more than the last 8 months to undo my permabullishness, so please only constructive feedback cuz I don't care about your FUD).
BTC has been selling off for quite some time, with little to no hope of recovery and new ATHs any time soon. A recent video I saw said that BTC has been given three chances to recover, and that it just blew it's last chance (youtube.com/watch?v=R51hyj_6d94). It very likely could have. What I am about to point out may show the opposite, because any and all information could be useful. As the video says, we make decisions with new informaion as per the scientific method, not with old information, so "we shall see" is all I'm saying here really.
Now.
-BTC is still well above its multi-year uptrend (purple ascending line). A fall below its current support (out of my green curvy channel and below 5.8k support) will likely put it at a test of that line somewhere around 3.5k. If it gets there, I will look for ways to sell my guitar, car, etc., and get all in should that support stay as a stronghold.
-I highlighted the tops and bottoms of my green curvy channel in orange and pink paint (the feb low I circled in yellow, as it falls out of my channel and establishes current support). Starting from the ATH, notice how they are closer to each other in time, and now they are farther and farther apart. To me that shows fast bearish acceleration, then steady recovery for an upswing much like a pendulum, bottoming with a lot of kinetic energy going for the next upswing. It's a stretch to say it like that, I know, but as the scientific method says, we will use this information until new information presents itself.
-Another thing we can see is the low from 6/29 is lower than lows from the last few days. In other words, we are potentially establishing a (weaksauce) higher low within this channel, but not much higher. This could mean sideways trading for price, accumulation, and gearing up for an upswing?
-Daily RSI is oversold. Historically it goes up from there. Who knows if we enter the realms of "Oversold and overbought are myths and bear and bull markets."?
-I have pointed out some possible divergence on the MACD, hinting we are seeing less and less bearish momentum.
-Recent days have shown an interest in BTC dominance breaking above 50% for the first time this year, now at 52.6%. Is it in an uptrend? Very possible that Alt hype is dying off, all eyes on BTC to turn things around.
-Lastly, I point to my time analysis. I'm learning about this fib time tool, so all I'm gonna say is that something big could happen around 9/17, as that is the next blue vertical line placement. Coincidentally, that is near the time the supposed ETF decision is supposed to be made (I think 9/30). Or is it a coincidence?
(A note: from hereon, please understand that it will take a lot more than the last 8 months to undo my permabullishness, so please only constructive feedback cuz I don't care about your FUD).
BTC has been selling off for quite some time, with little to no hope of recovery and new ATHs any time soon. A recent video I saw said that BTC has been given three chances to recover, and that it just blew it's last chance (youtube.com/watch?v=R51hyj_6d94). It very likely could have. What I am about to point out may show the opposite, because any and all information could be useful. As the video says, we make decisions with new informaion as per the scientific method, not with old information, so "we shall see" is all I'm saying here really.
Now.
-BTC is still well above its multi-year uptrend (purple ascending line). A fall below its current support (out of my green curvy channel and below 5.8k support) will likely put it at a test of that line somewhere around 3.5k. If it gets there, I will look for ways to sell my guitar, car, etc., and get all in should that support stay as a stronghold.
-I highlighted the tops and bottoms of my green curvy channel in orange and pink paint (the feb low I circled in yellow, as it falls out of my channel and establishes current support). Starting from the ATH, notice how they are closer to each other in time, and now they are farther and farther apart. To me that shows fast bearish acceleration, then steady recovery for an upswing much like a pendulum, bottoming with a lot of kinetic energy going for the next upswing. It's a stretch to say it like that, I know, but as the scientific method says, we will use this information until new information presents itself.
-Another thing we can see is the low from 6/29 is lower than lows from the last few days. In other words, we are potentially establishing a (weaksauce) higher low within this channel, but not much higher. This could mean sideways trading for price, accumulation, and gearing up for an upswing?
-Daily RSI is oversold. Historically it goes up from there. Who knows if we enter the realms of "Oversold and overbought are myths and bear and bull markets."?
-I have pointed out some possible divergence on the MACD, hinting we are seeing less and less bearish momentum.
-Recent days have shown an interest in BTC dominance breaking above 50% for the first time this year, now at 52.6%. Is it in an uptrend? Very possible that Alt hype is dying off, all eyes on BTC to turn things around.
-Lastly, I point to my time analysis. I'm learning about this fib time tool, so all I'm gonna say is that something big could happen around 9/17, as that is the next blue vertical line placement. Coincidentally, that is near the time the supposed ETF decision is supposed to be made (I think 9/30). Or is it a coincidence?
Note
9/2 not 9/17Note
Wow This bottom line is holding quite well. I'd be REALLY worried if it broke much further below it now. Staying cautious. Much bearish sentiment on tweetur. Still following increasing bullish divergence on MACD, as well as 2 retests of this bottom curve. This curve is simply a patterned curve to represent previous lows since the ATH, I'm not sure how strong these are at predicting or trading future movement, so I'm learning here. As we get closer to the upward portion of this pendulum swing, we need to see less sideways movement in order to see this hold. We are getting to a pressure point on the weekly TF, so if sentiment doesn't pick up, I might be out of this for a while. But then again, I'm not here 100% for the quick gains. I'm here for the LT gains and what crypto does for money.
Note
Tested a third time. Too many more tests of this line without bullish follow through will be not so good.Note
Just had a daily close barely above where I'm feeling comfortable, Hopefully we can see some buy volume and get things picking up again!
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