Short

Short on Bitcoin, uprising wedge formed, should drop to 10K

Updated

Bitcoin has formed an uprising wedge, stop at around 12.200, target at 10K

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So far so good, not good actually but perfection. The false upwards outbreak and after the downards break, the support line became a clear resistant now.

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Downwards break means target 10900

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Broke support put they pushed it back in again. Now it's difficult to say, will it try to retest the big wedge again or is this a desperate attempt? There is still a chance, this is all still part of the sideways action! That we wont be going anywhere today and tomorrow

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What is happening today, is typical sideways action, controlled manipulation, fooling daytraders who act on 'small' patterns and trades. It almost looks like the normal stockmarket of the last 15 years.

When you look at the break of that triangle, the fals outbreak (same as my previous update) the false break aint the biggest problem, but the 100 point spike up is.
Second the red cirkel, looks like an uprising triangle, clear bullish pattern, especially after the blue false downwards outbreak. Again, that it breaks out downwards is not the problem, but again the almost 100 point spike down is. Longs cant get out in time, bears dont get the chance to get in!
Than the worst one of all, the purple area (this has happend many times before), an absolute clear bearish flag, even the flag is turning down (lower highs and lows), and than 200+ point spike up! But they were mercy full this time, that they did not let the flag break downwards before pushing it up, so the conservative trader would not have shorted it yet.
Last of all, the big H&S with the neckline at 11.280. These are not real good H&S to trade on, but still, it breaks out to the upside, goes up 100 points, than it seems to makes a succesfull pullback, almost clear long trade, it goes up 50 points so all is well, and than all of sudden, a 160 point spike down.

Trust me, this is all intentional! That's why sideways action is very difficult and very dangerous. It's always best to stay out when it goes sideways like this. Same goes for yesterday, there was quite some buying volume, got pushed upp almost all signals were green, nice breakout of the 11.400 wich was a clear resistance several times, even made a perfect pullback to 11.400 when it broke out.
I just knew it would not push throug, that's why i published this chart at the top!

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Probably gonna play the same game as yesterday

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If it's gonna be exactly the same? we should see another up spike. 45/45 this is the top or another spike up towards 11.750, 10% chance it's really gonna break out above 12K.

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People just keep taking this market seriously, what a f.cking joke! At least at the normal markets it's known that they try to manipulate it (short term only!!) Here it's just incredible. I wouldn't be surprised that 30 to 70% of the volume, at least at certain times and moments is created by one or several persons.

I just knew thy would play the same game as yesterday again, just knew it. I even made money off it, but it's not that i am really proud off it!

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what will happen now

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I am shorting it, stop 11.250

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I am updating less, because views/followers/likes are staying behind. Just so you know :)

Lets evaluate the last few days, as it was become clear the last 2 days (after the failed breakout of 11.400, i mentioned the market would probably go sideways, because it is by far the most easiest way for whales to earn money. The influence of the CME futures expiration is probably the cause of this. I have no numbers or real information about how big the volume is of the CME futures, but before i even knew it would be this friday, i did not think it would be of any real influence. That's why i did not even take the time to be up to date. Now it's almost sure it is of influence. The false breakouts down and up have those characteristics. Ofourse it could all still be a coincidence, but for now i am assuming it has this effect.
For the ones who have no experience with the real markets, who have not seen enough in their lives of how stock markets (sometimes) work, don't know that the underliying value (like the Bitcoin) gets used as a toy to earn money with derivatives like the futures. Ofcourse when fundamentals/sentiment and big buying and selling volume have the upper hand, than it is much more difficult to control the outcome.
For now we are moving in a clear (bigger) triangle,from the 14.300 top to the 9.200 bottom. The room that's left is 10.400 on the downside and 11.400 on the upside. Normally it's best to stay untill it breaks one of the 2. For me it's almost it's like 70% sure that the first outbreak (up or down) will be a false outbreak, after that it will probably choose the other direction in which the chosen trend will than continue! This triangle has clear characteristics of a real triangle and it confirmes actual sentiment, people who the the bottom is set at 10K and the many who think it will drop to 8K or even much lower.

Smaller time frame patterns within this pattern, cannot be really used to determine which side the outbreak will be, we have seen this clearly at the 2 failed attempts on the upside at 11.700 and the day after at 11.600. Almost all short term signals were green, nonetheless it went down again as you can read in my previous updates, where i predicted it would be a second false outbreak!

My guess is, within the coming week the direction will be chosen and will determine the trend for the coming months. My view is to the downside, but i am very sceptical about the crypto market as whole, so i know i am not 100% objective. I know this of my self and therefore (like i always mention) i can change easily when i get new signals. My thought is, there is just to much uncertainty in the minds of people lately, ofcourse because of the big drops from the 20K top and the 17K top, but also from al the news and facts lately. This could have the upper hand for at least the short term (weeks/months). So a shake out to the downside is a very realistic option for now.

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The false outbreak of this triangle from the 10.300/11.200 levels, is a very weak sign! It bounced of the bigger triangle resistance which i mentioned in the previous update, now it's making a bearish flag, so most signals are to the downside for now!

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Posted a new chart

botje11

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