Short

BTC/DOLLAR WEEKLY timeframe levels

Updated

For a second week in a row bearish Bitcoin behavior brought along the opportunity to "Buy the Dip".
Question is... Is this a Dip or are we in a Bear market? Well... in my opinion all the bullish open positions should contemplate lower levels to be able to strategically find entry, stop G/L , as same considerations might be needed for them holding open short positions.

High Volatility and a extended time narrow ranging are not the ideal tools for premeditating trend & counter operations. The keep it simple strategy based on Reward/Risk management, ichimoku, Fibonacci, MA & WMA (52) are my tools of choice to insert over a weekly time-frame.

In my opinion weekly violation of support area 3324 will run south BTC seeking supports at 2278- 2267-1974-1901 final target 1692
On the other hand a upside movement requires resistance perforation to become support confirmation in order to not compromise the uptrend structure momentum over levels 3789-3799-3980-4217 at last confirmation over 4600 most likely will show new highs targeting at first 5740.

ICHIMOKU structure is extremely positive and healthy as far we can see up to now.

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So here we have the daily prospective with the levels reported thru the weekly.

Ichimoku in Nutral mode with the past 4 candlesticks locked in the cloud... only a minus marked by the crossover of the Tenkan below the Kijun.

Senkou Span A is North of Senkou Span B holding the cloud in positive territory.

Overall prices are parked below the positive configuration of the 52 WMA & MA.

This a very uncertain situation where bull markets usually tend to keep portafolios somehow liquid.

For the bulls... if prices regain 4125/4217 levels we will see money return in the market with objective to breakout the 4600 level seeking first target 5740

For the bears.. Fondamental the Ichimoku configuration... therefore prices under the cloud and Senkou Span A south of Senkou Span B... accelerating spiral of stop orders will conduct trades at 2491/2278 which is the first fib support after 3324 violation following levels as for the weekly comment.

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Just a quick update over this daily idea of mine...

In the past three days BTC high reached 4119/4114/4049 so from a stand point of 4125 level mention previously, price action seems not prompt to regained the level territory... on the 9/19 candle, the 52MA opposed little resistance while the 52 WMA keep trades from breaking thru as well for the next day returning price action under the MA as well.
At he present moment BTC is supported by the cloud (Kumo) in the positive location while span A is crossing span B in the attempt to close the positive Kum cycle.
In my opinion to forecast the future movement is for those who read thru crystal balls because only the violation of critical levels will direct the sentiment of the market which is loosing somehow the vision of the overall nature of the coin.
Speculation to come is in thin air now days and this is probably given by the News, FUD, and most likely Institutional players (whales).

For the bulls 30% liquidity is a safe strategy at the present moment... to be increased at 50% if price action enters the cloud and below cloud up to 60/75% obviously portafolio should be restructured when prices return to the respective levels.
WHERE I COME FROM THERE IS A SAYING "DON'T LET THE MATCH BURN ALL THE WAY TO YOUR FINGERS!" so better safe that sorrow...

For the bears short positions will become uncomfortable if prices regain 4125/4217 keep in mind that you are trading against a long term structure therefore the reverse strategy in act for the bulls works for you....30% portafolio in open short positions is a safe strategy at the present moment... to be increased at 50% if price action enters the cloud and below cloud increase up to 60/75% obviously positions should be restructured when prices return to the respective mentioned levels.

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BTC sellof... Back in the kumo cloud 3587.4 next support level.

Trading strategy as per above post.

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Another dull week of Bitcoin has gone closing with a doji Candle.
There is Not much to say besides the fact that the previous idea of a uncertain climate has been confirmed. Prices seemed to be parked with engine on idle but basically all of above comments are still in being such as for the assets allocation which on the daily timeframe where/are meant to :

For the bulls 30% liquidity is a safe strategy at the present moment... to be increased at 50% if price action enters the cloud and below cloud up to 60/75% obviously portafolio should be restructured when prices return to the respective levels.

....with that said I am 50% liquid maintaining my initial level strategy!
I will return adding or subtracting positions based on the Daily and the 4hr timeframe which I have a separate post open.

I will not be fully convinced to be in a bear market untill I see confirmation of certain levels being violated and not just being poked followed by a Kumo Short configuration which instead is Neutral.

20% Buys relocation for me will return if a upside movement seeks price action above level 3980 because I would like to be in position if we break the MA's at 4050/70 and will take a stop loss around the 3750 level.
On the other I will liquidate my portfolio for another 25% if trades fall under 3315 and relocate if 3450 returns to be on the book.

Have a great week Guys... my gut feeling tells that we are going to experience a Bitcoin volatility come back!!

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ps... Please excuse my Grammar... English is my second language :D

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Quick update on Daily chart!

MA's converging together at 4065 will be first resistance to this up move which consequently seeks Targets and next resistance levels at 4180 and 4217

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Ok so as stated previously here @3980... 20% Buys relocation for me!

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Daily update
Ma's violated but not confirmed therefore tomorrow will be critical...at the present time the level 3980 is valid and liquidity relocation happened yesterday .
Price action in the cloud therefore we could assist at bear reactions to deny the test of 4216...the sky is clear above 4330 (Kumo breakout) all the way to 4600 where money will return!

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KEEP IT SIMPLE!

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Daily Candle has opened above MA's at 4207 moderate Bullish is confirmed.
The reason for being moderate are two:
1. Price action inside the cloud (will be breakout and clear at 4330)
2. WMA at 4072 MA at 4091 this means we have a negative crossover

On a good note the Tenkan-sen (Conversion Line) positive crossover the Kijun-sen (Base Line) with trades above both!

My strategy is simple at this point back to taking 20% liquidity if prices retrieve at 3980 on DAILY CONFIRMATION as per now i like to see 4217 violated and 1st target at 4600 therefore I will start profit trailing depending on the 4hr timeframe.

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if Poke confirmed into Breakout 1st target as stated previously in this case 2 4hrs bars above 4330 will be the Confirmation status

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I am of the idea that breakout is confirmed... first Target 4611

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The UpChannel breakout denies Exit from Kumo for trend therefore 4611 target at this time...price action in cloud leave the situation uncertain for the Bulls...
Bears are slowly correcting the movement without major structure formation

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errata corrige: therefore 4611 target at this time.... "is postponed till price Action above 4330"

EdFib3

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