BTC_USD_LONG_4H_DESCENDING CHANNEL
Updated
Macro Analysis:
Before diving into the technical aspects, let's first examine the broader macro landscape influencing current market movements, particularly focusing on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Bitcoin Halving:
Consumer Price Index (CPI):
In March, inflation, measured by the CPI, surpassed expectations with a 0.4% increase compared to the anticipated 0.3%.This higher inflation sparked concerns about potential interest rate hikes, which could reduce market liquidity and adversely affect risk assets.
There was hope among investors for more accommodative U.S. monetary policy, indicated by lower inflation and potential interest rate cuts. However, the unexpected CPI surge tempered these expectations.
Bitcoin Halving:
The Bitcoin halving event, occurring every four years, is anticipated to initiate an 80-week profit cycle.
Further approvals of BTC ETFs, notably in the U.S. and Hong Kong, hold the potential to attract institutional investment into the market.
Amidst challenges in local stock and real estate markets, Chinese investors may turn to Bitcoin as an alternative asset.
Speculation surrounds potential interest rate cuts later in 2024, with a 25 basis point cut already priced in for the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.
Despite the dampening effect of the higher-than-expected CPI on market sentiment, optimistic factors such as the Bitcoin halving, ETF approvals, and potential interest rate cuts later in the year could offer relief.
Technical Analysis:
In the 1H timeframe, BTC exhibits a breakout from a descending parallel channel. Despite the bearish momentum suggested by the macro backdrop, as a chart pattern trader, I prioritize seizing opportunities as they arise. Regardless of bullish or bearish sentiments, the structural breakout observed on April 18th, with prices retracing around 63.5, presents a favorable entry point.
I plan to initiate a long position as long as support holds at this level. Scaling in at 64.2, I intend to continue deploying capital as we progress towards a favored uptrend, with eyes on 65.5 as another potential entry point.
Risk management is paramount, and I'm prepared for a modest drawdown, with take-profit levels set at the following:
TP1 66.9
TP2 69.1
TP 3 71.2
SL 61.8
Before diving into the technical aspects, let's first examine the broader macro landscape influencing current market movements, particularly focusing on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Bitcoin Halving:
Consumer Price Index (CPI):
In March, inflation, measured by the CPI, surpassed expectations with a 0.4% increase compared to the anticipated 0.3%.This higher inflation sparked concerns about potential interest rate hikes, which could reduce market liquidity and adversely affect risk assets.
There was hope among investors for more accommodative U.S. monetary policy, indicated by lower inflation and potential interest rate cuts. However, the unexpected CPI surge tempered these expectations.
Bitcoin Halving:
The Bitcoin halving event, occurring every four years, is anticipated to initiate an 80-week profit cycle.
Further approvals of BTC ETFs, notably in the U.S. and Hong Kong, hold the potential to attract institutional investment into the market.
Amidst challenges in local stock and real estate markets, Chinese investors may turn to Bitcoin as an alternative asset.
Speculation surrounds potential interest rate cuts later in 2024, with a 25 basis point cut already priced in for the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.
Despite the dampening effect of the higher-than-expected CPI on market sentiment, optimistic factors such as the Bitcoin halving, ETF approvals, and potential interest rate cuts later in the year could offer relief.
Technical Analysis:
In the 1H timeframe, BTC exhibits a breakout from a descending parallel channel. Despite the bearish momentum suggested by the macro backdrop, as a chart pattern trader, I prioritize seizing opportunities as they arise. Regardless of bullish or bearish sentiments, the structural breakout observed on April 18th, with prices retracing around 63.5, presents a favorable entry point.
I plan to initiate a long position as long as support holds at this level. Scaling in at 64.2, I intend to continue deploying capital as we progress towards a favored uptrend, with eyes on 65.5 as another potential entry point.
Risk management is paramount, and I'm prepared for a modest drawdown, with take-profit levels set at the following:
TP1 66.9
TP2 69.1
TP 3 71.2
SL 61.8
Note
Macro Analysis:China Asset Management, Bosera Capital, and HashKey Capital Limited have secured approval from the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) for their spot Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) exchange-traded funds (ETFs) applications.
Hashkey Capital, is a prominent digital asset platform in Asia with $1 billion AUM. Bosera Capital, $200 billion in assets, while China Asset Management, , oversees $266 billion AUM.
According to Bloomberg, the ETFs are expected to launch by month-end, marking a significant milestone for the region's crypto market. This approval positions Hong Kong as a leading digital asset hub in Asia.
While the U.S. approved spot Bitcoin ETFs in January, Ethereum ETFs are still pending approval. In contrast, Hong Kong approved both Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs simultaneously, highlighting its progressive stance. JPMorgan analysts estimate a 50% chance of Ether ETF approval by May.
Technical Analysis:
As we exit the descending channel pattern, BTC is indicating a reversal, supported by our entries at 63.5, 64.2, and 65.5, aligning with an upward trend. Despite minimal activity over the weekend, we're currently 3% away from TP1. To safeguard profits, we've adjusted our stop-loss higher. We've already secured a modest 5% gain, aiming for a swing of 15% towards TP3.
Trade active
Technical Update 1H: We're seeing a strong push on the hourly chart, tapping 66.8K. Let's raise the stop-loss and lock in additional profits. Take advantage of this momentum and aim to maximize gains while prioritizing your capital.
Trade active
Technical Update 2H: TP1 has been reached, so adjust your stop-loss to secure profits. This is crucial. We're currently up 5% on our long position. It's important to note that the price is forming an ascending wedge pattern. If the price breaks out of this pattern, wait for a retest. At that point, we can consider closing our long position and entering a short position. Stay flexible enough to capitalize on opportunities from both sides of the market.
Trade active
Macro Analysis: Bitfinex released their Alpha Report on April 22nd, maintaining a bullish outlook on Bitcoin. Here are the key takeaways from the report:
On-Chain Dynamics and Bitcoin's Market Conditions Post-Halving
Peak Bitcoin Exchange Outflows: Record high Bitcoin exchange outflows since January 2023 demonstrate strong investor confidence, with many moving their assets to cold storage in anticipation of price rises.
Stable Long-Term Holder Activity: Despite ongoing sales from long-term holders, there hasn't been the expected pre-halving price decline, suggesting new market entrants are effectively absorbing this selling pressure.
Miners Adjusting to Reduced Rewards: Following the halving, miners have reduced the amount of Bitcoin they send to exchanges, spreading out potential selling pressure and lessening the impact on market stability.
Economic Influences and Bitcoin's Supply-Demand Dynamics
Supply-Demand Imbalance: The reduced daily issuance rate of Bitcoin compared to the inflows from Bitcoin ETFs suggests a significant imbalance that could lead to further price appreciation.
Geopolitical Risks: Ongoing global geopolitical tensions are crucial factors that could affect Bitcoin's value and its role as "digital gold."
ETF Dynamics: Despite significant acquisitions by Bitcoin ETFs, recent signs of outflows suggest that demand from these funds might be reaching a balance, which could influence future price movements.
Tecnical Update 1H:
In the LTF, specifically on the 1-hour chart, Bitcoin shows solid support along the lower rising wedge trendline. A key resistance level at 69.5 has been tested multiple times (5x) in attempts to break higher. Currently, the price is stable at this level, with no significant structural changes that indicate a potential bearish downturn. Continuing to hold here until we see a dramatic drawdown. Given the low volume nodes, not a ton of selling pressure ATM.
Trade closed: stop reached
We got stopped out here, but no worries—we anticipated this possibility during our analysis of the rising wedge pattern. This is why it's crucial to lock in our gains by adjusting our stop losses to secure any profits the market offers. I'll share a short idea in a separate thread soon.TP1: Hit
TP2: Stop reached
TP3: Stop reached
Pierre Pressure
FOCUS - FIGHT - WIN
FOCUS - FIGHT - WIN
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