Market Sentiment Overly Bearish as Coins Hit Resistance
As we enter the 50th day of the Bitcoin' bear market, we keep hearing calls for lower levels almost to a euphoric state of bearishness similar to the euphoric state of bullishness we saw in late December. Market sentiment is always a key indicator of a reversal as we saw in the stock market the past two weeks. Too Bullish, a pullback is eminent, but it also works in reverse as well, too bearish, a reversal is eminent. But where, when, and how are only probable guesses. We never try and time tops and bottoms, which is why we did not sell the top at 19k we sold a little at 17k when we saw weakness. This was simply to lock in some profits and get into some cash. This was not to get out of the market as history and statistics have proven time and time again, traders under perform long term buy and hold portfolios.
Unless you have completely given up on bitcoin' and the space in general this is a buying opportunity and one I am not passing up but this is not an all in, I want to add as we have been doing in small positions.
The chart above shows the graphs of the top four in market cap. Interesting enough both XRP' and BTC' show more strength in advancing then they do in decline. In other-words, they advance much quicker than they decline. It only took bitcoin' 32 days to go from 5800 to 19500 but after 50 days we are only at 7800. This is the opposite for stocks where declines are quicker and harder than advances. Now some of this may be due to the lack of shorting means available in the spot market, where in the U.S. the only way to short is to sell your holdings. But this is also a sign that the market is still bullish, and shorting here becomes very risky, just like buying at 18-19k long was risky.
We are testing support levels, which were the levels that these coins broke through for their final leg up. A break of these levels could see additional weakness and additional buying opportunities. Once we get clarity from the SEC' which may be holding buyers back from entering the space, we could see a reversal. In addition the RSI levels are all at their lowest levels in a long time. I am simply taking a wait and see approach to the market and having made my list of what I am looking to buy on a reversal I am being patient and letting the market do its thing.
Bottom Line: This is not the end of bitcoin' and a year from now people will likely be kicking themselves in the butt for selling at 15k and not buying back. Funny at 18k BTC' 1250 ETH' and 90cent XLM' my buddies wanted to buy and couldn't wait to get in. Now with prices lower they are wondering if they should sell at a loss. This is typical herd mentality, and why you want to position contrarian to the view of the herd.
Unless you have completely given up on bitcoin' and the space in general this is a buying opportunity and one I am not passing up but this is not an all in, I want to add as we have been doing in small positions.
The chart above shows the graphs of the top four in market cap. Interesting enough both XRP' and BTC' show more strength in advancing then they do in decline. In other-words, they advance much quicker than they decline. It only took bitcoin' 32 days to go from 5800 to 19500 but after 50 days we are only at 7800. This is the opposite for stocks where declines are quicker and harder than advances. Now some of this may be due to the lack of shorting means available in the spot market, where in the U.S. the only way to short is to sell your holdings. But this is also a sign that the market is still bullish, and shorting here becomes very risky, just like buying at 18-19k long was risky.
We are testing support levels, which were the levels that these coins broke through for their final leg up. A break of these levels could see additional weakness and additional buying opportunities. Once we get clarity from the SEC' which may be holding buyers back from entering the space, we could see a reversal. In addition the RSI levels are all at their lowest levels in a long time. I am simply taking a wait and see approach to the market and having made my list of what I am looking to buy on a reversal I am being patient and letting the market do its thing.
Bottom Line: This is not the end of bitcoin' and a year from now people will likely be kicking themselves in the butt for selling at 15k and not buying back. Funny at 18k BTC' 1250 ETH' and 90cent XLM' my buddies wanted to buy and couldn't wait to get in. Now with prices lower they are wondering if they should sell at a loss. This is typical herd mentality, and why you want to position contrarian to the view of the herd.
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