Market sentiment largely extremely negative. This is a positive.
Updated
Analysts and articles claiming that this might be the end of the crypto bull market. A few even announcing that we won't have an Altcoin cycle this round (seen similar reporting during past 2 cycles as well) since institutions will only focus on ETF-approved coins. And numerous extreme negative sentiments pervading all around -- which signals a good time to prepare to continue to accumulating more.
BTC failed to set an ATH above 74kUSD after the latest FOMC meeting announcement of no rates cut = extension of accumulation opportunity. I was too optimistic prior to that.
Personally, I am now waiting to deploy my final pool of USDC capital (and even BTC) once there is a clear sign of a turnaround around the next lower support level, prob into Kaspa. IMO, BTC could retrace down to 60kUSD or even 57kUSD next, and "worse" case, down to 38-48kUSD.
Zooming out, it is presently merely consolidating sideways after a 90% increase from 38kUSD (23Jan'24), ranging btwn ca. 57k-70kUSD.
Will take a wait and see attitude for the moment.
If BTC do correct down to 38-48kUSD and then recovers back to 70kUSD, that would setup a massive cup and handle pattern with a measured move target of ca. 260-290kUSD!
Just some crude thoughts to put it out there for later later reference (like what I usually like to do), to be refined upon later once I'm home.
BTC failed to set an ATH above 74kUSD after the latest FOMC meeting announcement of no rates cut = extension of accumulation opportunity. I was too optimistic prior to that.
Personally, I am now waiting to deploy my final pool of USDC capital (and even BTC) once there is a clear sign of a turnaround around the next lower support level, prob into Kaspa. IMO, BTC could retrace down to 60kUSD or even 57kUSD next, and "worse" case, down to 38-48kUSD.
Zooming out, it is presently merely consolidating sideways after a 90% increase from 38kUSD (23Jan'24), ranging btwn ca. 57k-70kUSD.
Will take a wait and see attitude for the moment.
If BTC do correct down to 38-48kUSD and then recovers back to 70kUSD, that would setup a massive cup and handle pattern with a measured move target of ca. 260-290kUSD!
Just some crude thoughts to put it out there for later later reference (like what I usually like to do), to be refined upon later once I'm home.
Note
Note: However, more likely than not, 60kUSD is the current retracement target; and if that target is fulfilled, then will go on from there, i.e. taking it level by level.Note
Next lower measured move target sits below the golden pocket.
I am still bullish long-term. Waiting excitedly but patiently to DCA-accumulate into selected cryptos again once there is a clear sign of a turnaround.
Note
w-pattern breakout and in confluence above the green 50 SMA above the 4 hourly. First sign of a turnaround. FG histogram have also turned green again on this time scale.However, BTC will first have to close above the orange 200 SMA on the daily for a clearer confirmation.
Note
Good time for me to start setting buy orders to DCA back into crypto..Note
Buy orders set above the red daily 21 EMA cancelled as BTC fails to hold and confirm support above the thick orange 200 SMA line.Note
Continuing to be rejected by the daily 200 SMA, the next likely target would be the 61.8% Fib retrace level..Note
See also target mentioned in a previous analysis:"Crash"? What crash?
Quote: "This is just a healthy retracement; perhaps down to 51.5kUSD, or even down to 44.6kUSD (towards the thin-orange 200 VWMA, or thick-orange 200 SMA) imo."
With the Fib retrace lvls drawn from the bear market bottom instead.
Note
BTC had finally pushed above the 200 daily SMA. FG histogram turned bullish again on the daily as well. Managed to get some buys in earlier above the red 21 EMA.
Thought: BTC could potentially get rejected by the green 50 SMA and to retest the red 21 EMA again for a potential inverse head and shoulder setup before successfully pushing higher.
Bottom is probably in IMO. Good time to continue to DCA back into BTC again.
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