Final 20% drop scenario in play
I'm now bullish and spot loaded after 8 months of shorting, targeting $18k.
My last short from $32k targeted $18k level with the aim of setting a leveraged long.
- Spot ALTs are in place
- The leveraged long is not in place as yet
- The leveraged long target laddering across $16 to $17k - the following structure needs to complete or is invalidated by a climb above
25K before any leverage.
- The risk for longs here is a 20% drop under recent $17,500 low
Final Local Bottoming process:
1. Price fails to break resistance @ $21,700. This process takes a few days, whales buying. ALTs begin to lose value. Calls for
13K return.
2. Price crashes & forms a new low. 24 hours at final low of $17k. Late entries to the rally in the last few days panic sell. Leveraged longs are stopped out + traders short the break of previous low creating liquidity for Whale longs.
3. Price rallies sharply above25K on its way to $40k.
We hit my original $18k target inline with market structure so price could happily continue thus will not short. However, this is such a nice trap nd we haven't seen massive volume spikes as yet so I give this scenario 60% likelihood of materialising thus I am taking profits on some Spot to prep for lower entries
Best, Hard Forky
Final Short at $32k
Spot Long at $17,900
I'm now bullish and spot loaded after 8 months of shorting, targeting $18k.
My last short from $32k targeted $18k level with the aim of setting a leveraged long.
- Spot ALTs are in place
- The leveraged long is not in place as yet
- The leveraged long target laddering across $16 to $17k - the following structure needs to complete or is invalidated by a climb above
25K before any leverage.- The risk for longs here is a 20% drop under recent $17,500 low
Final Local Bottoming process:
1. Price fails to break resistance @ $21,700. This process takes a few days, whales buying. ALTs begin to lose value. Calls for
13K return.2. Price crashes & forms a new low. 24 hours at final low of $17k. Late entries to the rally in the last few days panic sell. Leveraged longs are stopped out + traders short the break of previous low creating liquidity for Whale longs.
3. Price rallies sharply above
25K on its way to $40k.We hit my original $18k target inline with market structure so price could happily continue thus will not short. However, this is such a nice trap nd we haven't seen massive volume spikes as yet so I give this scenario 60% likelihood of materialising thus I am taking profits on some Spot to prep for lower entries
Best, Hard Forky
Final Short at $32k
Spot Long at $17,900
Note
Oh, look...Note
Note
Note
Crunch TimeNote
endNote
21,888... ok, I placed a small short at 21,750 but focusing on the low LongNote
Considering the chance of a retest of resistance after close from 21k to 21,9. Note
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.